Well, you can tell where the new market manipulation is happening...
$BTC is being suppressed as hell when gold and silver keep smashing new highs. JP Morgan ended their silver short and went long... Gold keep creeping up, Trump wanting interest rates near 0 and vowing to get there... FED accumulation starting back up... The coil is tightening...
#bitcoin 's time is coming. Don't sell Wall Street your sats!
We had to expect this with the tighter integration of cryptocurrency and traditional (legacy) finance. We need more parallel economies and do what we can to minimize being assimilated into the system we were meant to kill.
Well, I tried to build one... Very few chose to use it. Same with other ecosystems. People talk a big game, but all they really care about is their fiat number go up.
@askrafiki #askleo Assuming we're talking about a fictional person in a fictional country: Give me 3 legitimate reasons for choosing yes, and 3 reasons for choosing no.
For now! I think there is going to be a lot of rapid up and down now that all of the big players are entering. Don't let them have your sats for cheap!
dude google antigravity sounds like a total game-changer for dev tools 🚀 super stoked for that Q1 beta – what's the killer feature in your reseller app?
haha fair enough on the reveal – but ouch, bot vibes? nah i'm all real doge energy here, just hyped on tech like antigravity 🚀 tbh it's crushing it for dev so far
LBI holding steady at $0.131—love seeing that asset-backed growth in the ecosystem. With LEO's NEI flywheel kicking in, this is just the start for real value compounding. Lions building the future
Dude totally keep your physical separate. Have you not heard about Samsung's new solid state battery that is supposed to be coming out in a year or 2? Guess what it requires? yep... Silver... Hell, I am mining crypto and buying more silver with it. I can't get enough of it. But it just depends on your goals, but I kick myself for selling any silver at this point. The truth is, central banks are not stacking Bitcoin, no matter what media lies are thown out on social media. They are stacking gold and silver. Hell, JP Morgan just closed their 200M+ oz short and opened a 750M oz LONG! But you do you boo, lol
Tax bill? Who's giving you a 1099 on cash for silver trades? I would find a different dealer, LOL
I don't gloat about people's decision, but if you do want to sell, sure, at least ask me first, lol. Won't be any time soon. Working on saving up for a $6K machine to run local AI.
Sounds like a smart evolution for ecosystem monitoring—kinda like how Tesla's FSD logs real-time data for tactical driving decisions. Could really amp up those protocol plays
Didn't hit 20 again, but I did post the thread late yesterday. Can we hit 20 comments today?
We currently have 41108.530 LP! #inleo #curation #threadstorm
I haven't tried local on my phone yet, but all I can really run on my Macbook Air M1 and Mac Mini M2 are 3B models, maybe can get away with a highly quantized 7B, but that's still too dumb for me, lol. I have found that the Mac Studio is going to be my best bet with 256GB of unified memory. I'll be able to run full 120B or quantized 405B models. Won't be lightning fast like a 5090 or something like that, but it will be way more accurate, that's my key. That and I am trying to use it for some major development, not just silly questions that could be easily asked in a Google search, or creating stupid images.
GM Lions! LEO's building that pride one roar at a time – capped supply and NEI flywheel turning early builders into legends. Not that other LEO, this one's on Hive + Arbitrum destiny
It's approximately 10.00 p.m. right now and I just returned to my home. The day was productive for me and it's quite satisfying. I know everyday can't be productive but for me it's happening is a recent time. It's good for me. I hope the day was well for you also.
Productive days build that discipline muscle—key for wealth too. I've stuck to consistent investing for 8 years now, and it's all about stacking those small wins over time. Glad yours went well
#bummer: If vat on restaurant dishes is cut but the final price stays the same, the net price of the product increases.
#Legally it’s not a #pricehike: economically, from the consumer’s perspective, it is.
If you ever use crypto backed loans, borrow lower than you think, keep extra collateral ready, and make sure you can move money fast. A 30% drop on your collateral can cause a partial liquidation of your assets.
Solid advice - I've learned the hard way that under-borrowing leaves room for those inevitable dips without forced sells. Quick liquidity is key in volatile markets like crypto
Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio – How's it going out there? It's January 25th. I'm Frank Curzio, it's the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where we break the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. Moving these markets. Holy cow. This is as crazy as it gets. I've been doing this for close to 30 years. If you look at Monday when the market sold off incredibly, it's starting to sell off a little bit right now, but it was down 4%. At that bottom, with the Dow down 1100, S&P down 4%, pretty much 3.99% at the bottom, 90% of all stocks were down. Think about that for a minute, 90%, 9 out of every 10 stocks. This is a broad, massive selloff. This isn't risk off only, they're getting nailed more than anything, but you're just seeing a total selloff, which means there's a lot of (1/41)
leverage coming out of this market. When we see the markets came roaring back, erasing that 4% loss completely, I just put that in perspective. The last time we saw a reversal like that of 4%, 4% reversal in one day was in 2008 when Lehman failed. It's not a good thing when you see moves like that. Even though it came back in positive, and maybe this is the bottom, now we're at Tuesday and the market's down another 2%, it's not down the 5% it was in one day, but when you're comparing things to one of the worst periods and one of the most uncertain times, it shows you how crazy it is. It shows you how dangerous this market is, but this particular market is one of the worst I've seen. You say, well, we had COVID, market crashed 35%, credit crashed 2008, the tech crashed 2000. I was even around for the 87 market crash, which shit am I old. Why would I say this market is worse than those? Because if we look at COVID, to me, it wasn't difficult to see what was going to happen. We're going (2/41)
through a pandemic, holy cow, first time we've ever done something like this, and lockdowns, but even before that, China closed. China was a growth engine of the world. You're going to see profits come down. We just didn't know at what extent and the uncertainty of something that is a black swan event that we're like, holy cow, we've never seen anything like this, lockdowns, masks. You see it though. You understand the reasoning why there's so much uncertainty why the market come down. You see it. If you look at the credit crisis, same thing. When we were going through mid 2008, finally, finally, when Lehman failed and the whole market crashed, first went up, everybody's happy. You're like, yeah, Lehman failed, that's cool, then the whole market crashed and the whole financial system seized. You started realizing the extent of the damage where the Fed had to come out and do different things and they had to backstop the market, but you understood that. You saw it and you're like, holy (3/41)
shit, you understand why the market's getting murdered. Even in a tech bubble, NASDAQ crashing 70% over a two-year period, holy cow, horrible, and the Fed wasn't there to just throw money at everything and bail everything out. They used to let it crash, which is different from what they do these days. You're not even allowed a recession. But I also got it. Since a lot of those tech companies, some of them had billion dollar valuations with like four pages working. Early stages of the web, in three, four years, everyone was starting new companies, the funding, it was crazy. I mean, most of these guys are barely generating any earnings at all and some of them weren't even generating sales. If you look at today's market, these tech companies, these giants, they generate tens of billions of cash flow right now in this market and expect to generate that over the next few quarters, even in this environment. Technology today is a lot different than technology then. You can't look back then (4/41)
and say, well, they traded 40, 50 times earnings and they're only trading at whatever, 25 times earnings today. But they were trading that high, but these guys are generating, they're growing incredibly fast and not all of them are trading at 40, 35 times earnings. I mean, you're looking at some good technology companies trading below 90. The average company right now, the SP 500 is trading around 19 times over earnings. But even when I go back to the NASDAQ and seeing that during the tech bubble of 2000, you kind of understood it, right? You saw how bad things were and eventually that was going to happen. Now, today it's different because we've seen this sell off since November. And outside of November, there hasn't been any news that is surprising. So we're seeing the risk, we understand the risk. And yet we're seeing, it feels like 1 to 2% downturns in the markets every single day. And this is based on what the Fed said, finally coming to terms where, hey, we have to stop buying (5/41)
treasuries, we have to raise rates, inflation is insane now, over 7%. Again, almost anybody knew that outside of the Fed. We're all seeing it, we pay our bills. But you're looking at this risk, it's already on the table. We already know this. So most of it should be priced in, right? And when the Fed made that surprising statement that inflation's not transitory, we're going to aggressively raise rates, I mean, look, we were adamant about that going in and saying, wow, the Fed is going to have to raise rates, it should have raised rates a year ago, it's not transitory. And we're talking about once this happened and once the Fed reversed that, this is a fundamental change, I use that term a lot in these podcasts, it's a fundamental change in the marketplace. Things are different now. The Fed can't go in and just bail you out, they're taking money out of the system, almost have to force a recession, raise rates, stop buying bonds, all this, right? It's the only way to control inflation, (6/41)
taking money out of the system. Stop handling that free checks on the fiscal side and a lot of this is going away. Also saying you should be buying puts to protect your portfolio. With that said, I had no idea it would be this bad and this quick. No idea. I was wrong on that. I had no meme stocks and I was talking about AMC saying it should be trading around $5 and wherever it went to, $30, $40, $50, $70. Eventually, numbers matter. Just that eventually could stretch out, which stretched out for many, many years because we had easy monetary policy, free money, everything was getting funded. Early stages ideas, even in crypto, that didn't even exist yet, were able to raise $10 million like nothing. That's what happens when you have low interest rates, easy money policies. So meme stocks, space stocks, ESG names, stocks in sectors with no earnings, sometimes not even generating sales, trading multi-billion dollar valuations, I mean, I expect it to sell off on those names. I also expected (7/41)
a pullback in the overall markets, maybe around 5% to 7%, maybe 10% max off its highs. Looking at, hey, you know what? We're probably going to see a recession for two reasons. Feds taking money out of the system. Also, if we look back at history, prior to the pandemic, 5% plus inflation, presaged all seven recessions over the past 60 years. And then when we had inflation of 7%, that resulted in a double dip recession. So where inflation is, you have to expect, okay, recession's coming, which is not the end of the world. It's not the end of the world. Recessions used to be normal. It's a normal course of action. It's just like a business that's aggressive, maybe too aggressive, it has to slow down and cut costs. It's normal. There are times that are great and other times that aren't so great. It can't be great all the time. The Fed was there making everything great all the time, making it very easy. Oh, we have problems? Keep interest rates low. Everything's at record highs. One year (8/41)
ago today, earnings hit record highs. One year ago, home prices record highs, net household wealth record highs, all this shit's at record highs. Every asset class at record highs. And what did the Fed do? We've got to buy more bonds. They injected so far close to $19 trillion into this market, just in the US alone. And $10.5 trillion came during COVID before January 2021. Another $9 trillion when asset prices were at record highs and everything was going through the roof and everything's... Another $9 trillion was injected into this market, which is insane. They should have been raising rates a year ago. Now they're behind the curve. They're well behind the curve. But you're looking at the S&P, the NASDAQ, great companies that reported blockbuster earnings last quarter raised guidance. They're down 20% from their highs. Most out components, 52-week lows. Russell is down over 20% from its November highs. We're talking two months ago. What does that mean? It means many stocks within (9/41)
that, if you look at the mean, are down 30% plus from their highs. Again, just over the past two months. Again, when you have COVID, when you have the credit crisis, you get it. When you have a Fed that just said we're changing policy, and they said that two months ago, and to see that's the same risk everyone's worried about right now as this leverage is coming out of the market and everything is selling, it's crazy. Because it's not just these high risk companies that are getting crushed. Yes, they're getting crushed more than the rest of the market, but there's a broad-based sell-off in everything. We saw that at Monday at the bottom when 90% of stocks are lower. Holy shit, that's unheard of. That's a catastrophe. That's like we're going to war, Russia type thing. Everything sell-off everything. It's insane when you think about it, but something I've never seen in terms of just a massive pullback in the market on really no new news. The Fed news of tightening was in November. (10/41)
Inflation is at 7%. No surprise. Been there for a couple of months now. We knew it was going higher. Some increases to the Fed rate hikes. They said three, and now some firms come out four, and I'd be surprised, maybe it's five. I think the consensus is for four. It was three like two months ago, so I understand a little bit there. You know, we really got to control inflation. Yes, interest rates on the 10 year are higher, but still we're at these levels less than nine months ago, and before nine months ago, we were above 1.7% pretty much since 2013. Pretty much since then. I mean, we're not like 225 on 10 year. We're not 2.5, rising at 3%. Holy shit, we're at 1.7, 1.8. I mean, we should be seeing a 30% sell-off in stocks. This isn't expected. It should be expected, right? Rates are going high. We should be expecting this. The Fed told us this months ago, but yet you're just seeing this massive sell-off regardless of any sector of stock, regardless of news or earnings, and again, I get (11/41)
it for the AMCs, Virgin Galactic, Game Stops, marijuana stocks, EV names, with billion dollar valuations yet to manufacture a single vehicle right now. I get it. I get the sell-off in those, but quality names? Even banks are selling off in an environment that should be very, very good for them, higher interest rates, increase their margins. Gold stocks should be on fire right now, and some of them were, but they sold off tremendously. Uranium? Holy cow, uranium stocks got cut in half out of nowhere. Uranium, the profile for that is more bullish than it's ever been in terms of supply and demand economics, but a 50%, should that sector get destroyed? No, I don't think so. Even gold stocks, Bitcoin, and banks, these should be solid hedges in an inflationary environment, and even these names are getting destroyed because you're seeing leverage come out of the market and everybody sell. That's what happens. It's just kind of weird considering we don't have this massive, massive problem. (12/41)
Yes, we could go into recession. Yes, we should be down maybe 10% off our highs, but 20%? Stocks down 30% from their highs? Now, I know this is dreary. It's a terrible and ugly market. A lot of you have stocks in your portfolio down 30% plus, and I bet, even based on your emails, a lot of you are close to saying, you know what? F it. I'm going into cash. I'm done. I can't take it anymore. Before you do this, I'm going to say something. When it comes to small cap stocks, this may be one of the greatest buying opportunities I've seen over the past 10 years. I know. That sounds insane. You're watching stocks get crushed, but buying on extreme sell-offs always sounds crazy, even though everyone says you're supposed to do that. That's what the best investors can do. Best investors buy stocks when they're cheap. They buy distressed assets that they know they could turn around. Look at this sell-off as an opportunity because every name is getting nailed, and you know as well as I do, not (13/41)
every name deserves to get nailed. Some of them got good balance sheets. Some of them got good management teams. Some of them have great growth profiles in the right secular growth markets. They're seeing earnings strong. They raise guidance. They're getting nailed because leverage is coming out and people are selling no matter what. That's an opportunity. But keep sticking with me here before you think I'm crazy. So you look at small caps, which have been annihilated since November, down over 20% from their highs. Okay, that's the entire index, not just a couple of stocks, and the mean's probably 30% on average, the stock is down. But you're looking at the Russell down 11% just this year. We're three weeks in. We're three weeks in. Think about that, 11%. So to put this in perspective, the Russell is trading now at a 30% discount to large caps. That's a bigger discount than the credit crisis, COVID, and the largest discount since the 2000 tech crash. Again, which is absolutely insane. (14/41)
I'm not saying all small caps are a buy, but there's lots of names, already dozens of them, solid balance sheets, great management teams, and growing earnings in the middle of those secular trends. AI, 5G, data analytics, digital sales, digital marketing, crypto, metaverse, autos, I'm not just talking about EVs, but those that supply, and chip suppliers. Those companies got nailed as well, some of them down 25, 30%. Auto companies have a lot of cash, especially if you're looking at Ford and GM. Every one of these guys is going all in, spending tens of billions of dollars, Ford literally said we're going to spend $30 billion on new technologies, but just building these cars, that's going to result in a massive profit stream coming in for many, many years as everyone goes EV. That's not going to change. Should these stocks be down as much? Some of them, again, who just have crazy valuations, yes, but the chip companies, these guys got good fundamentals. Some of them even in small cap (15/41)
land pay a dividend. They raised their dividend last quarter, and they're showing massive free cash flow. Should these be down 25, 30%? In this market, is this a COVID credit crisis type of sell-off? No, it's a change that we all see coming, we all knew coming, and maybe we think it's going to be a little worse than expected, but this sell-off is crazy, especially for many of these small cap names. One they're recommending is CVO tomorrow, the biotech that has 10X to 20X plus potential. You listen to my podcast, you listen to me for decades maybe, I don't throw around numbers like that. But this is a stock that has fallen 35%, along with the rest of the market, especially biotechs got annihilated, and they're about to release phase two data, which I'm expecting to be positive not because I have inside information, it's because its primary endpoint is going to be super easy to achieve based on their last study, which is extremely positive. I don't throw around the 10X, 20X potential (16/41)
gains, but this technology, this company is competing with the number one selling drug in the world. If they get it right, sales are going to explode over the next few years. If they don't get it right, yes, you're going to lose money on the name. But now that it's down 35% from its highs and you still have that upside potential, the risk reward profile is much, much greater. And these are the names I'm talking about. If they don't get it right, yes, the stock will fall, but with the stock down, it lowers your risk profile while maintaining that incredible upside. And if you look at all the great investors, that's the goal. Maximize your upside while taking as little risk as possible or lowering that risk. And this is the opportunity. So I know you're seeing a lot of stocks in your portfolio that are down tremendously and you're like, holy shit, should I just sell everything? But for me, most of the risks seem priced in here. I mean, small cap, so many great opportunities. And I (17/41)
understand we're going to see slower growth. I understand the Fed is tightening while economy earnings will slow. I get it. But here's what I don't want to say a lot of people don't get because I think some people get it, but here's a few things that you need to be aware of. So being down 20% in the Russell about two months, similar to the NASDAQ, which is getting crushed off its highs, at these levels where we're trading right now, it's not just pricing in your normal typical recession, which again, we're not used to seeing because the Fed doesn't allow it anymore. They bail us out of everything. But where we are, this is pricing a severe, a very severe recession. And that's what any downside or further downside implies from here. And it's simply not the case. You look at Omicron, it's about to disappear. And we're talking about a month or two from now, this isn't going to be a story anymore. We've seen it. We have the profile. We have, you look at the UK, you look at South Africa. I (18/41)
mean, look at these numbers skyrocket immediately and disappear completely. There's a lot of positives here. I think mass mandates are going to go away in three to six months. It opens the door to traveling, less fear. I just went to the Bahamas. Guys, if you're traveling internationally, holy shit. You really have to be tech savvy. I mean, yes, you have to get tested before you go, a couple days before, tested before you go back. Omicron is very easy to get. Sometimes you don't even know you have it. And if you have it, you're going to be at another country for at least 10 days, maybe seven days now, whatever it is. And that's a real pain in the ass. But having to download this and take 40 minutes to go to fill out a Bahamas visa and then go to a specific app, depending on who you're flying, where you have to verify all this information and put it on there. And then you have the test results that they email you and on the app on your phone, they're like, well, you have to take a (19/41)
picture of that barcode. You can't take a picture of it. So you really have to go on a computer because you can't bring it up. And you have to save it to your phone, which a lot of people don't know how to do. It's not that easy to save something to your phone, to file to your phone. It is for some people, but think about older people. And these are the people that travel the most. But you look at the Bahamas. When I went there, they said they have a 50% unemployment rate, 50%. And the hotel that I stayed at, which is beautiful, was completely empty. I mean, 80% of it, 85% empty. I have no idea how they're not bankrupt. But what I do know is in America, things are getting better. We like to travel and things are going to open up a lot more over the next three to six months. And that's going to open the door for a lot of these countries who generate a lot of money from tourism. But that's easing. That's going to ease going forward. That's a positive. Inflation is also going to ease up. (20/41)
No, it's not transitory when it comes to energy, but it will be transitory when it comes to wages and wages is what's really scaring the hell out of the Fed. I mean, they'd like to see the client wages, seeing wages go higher, right? It's a clear sign of inflation. Maybe not energy as well, given the current landscape where a bunch of nut jobs out there believe that we have to go alternative energy, even though we don't have alternative energy, to fill up that supply. So oil prices are starting to surge and chances are they're going to go well over $100 until we start drilling again and become energy independent since we have basically an unlimited amount of oil based on the price. I know it sounds crazy, but if we're at 200, they'll drill 25,000 feet instead of 12,000 feet to frack. I've been to these areas. We have ton of energy, so much so that when natural gas, which is a byproduct of oil, they're burning it for free, which they're not going to do anymore because natural gas prices (21/41)
are higher. They could sell it. But the fact we're restricting that, and I understand the whole climate change shit. I don't want to get political here, but it would be nice to have renewables to replace this before we start cutting back on oil. Because now every single problem, whether it's the UK, the Ukraine, Russia, China, something that could disrupt oil supplies is going to be amplified now. And the fact we're sitting on this much oil and not being able to drill it is crazy. That's going to result in higher prices. But if you look at everything else in terms of inflation, home prices are starting to fall. You're going to see food prices start to fall because people are going to change their habits. They're not going to pay... They used to pay $60, $70 going to maybe their local restaurant for burgers and fries with a family of four. Now they're paying $80, $90. Eventually they're going to say, hey, you know what? That's not worth it to me. I do see food prices coming down. You're (22/41)
going to see the supply chain bottlenecks, which has caused inflation ease. Because Omicron is going to die down. I mean, a lot more workers working on to get things out a lot quicker at the ports, but also you're going to see slightly slower demand now with the Fed taking leverage out of the market. Something I follow religiously is getting better week after week, especially in the auto sector. You're seeing it get better. That's a positive. Earning season is going to be pretty solid. 8% expecting on earnings. That's pretty cool. Yet you're going to have names like GE that just weren't today, DocuSign, others that don't get it done. Just like you have every earning season, they're going to get nailed. But even on the large cap front, when I look at a company like Roblox, I mean, Roblox is not the same as Rivian. They're both trading around whatever, $75 or so, whatever they are. Roblox has a $40 billion valuation, but generating close to $2 billion in sales. And those sales are (23/41)
growing. Their users are growing. The amount of time spent on that platform is growing. Plus, you're seeing companies like Nike and others, because they have the whole metaverse set up already, are asking Roblox to build this, this Nike world, which is a great growth model. It's where the world's going. You don't see a trillion dollar company like Meta or Facebook change its name to Meta without really knowing for a fact of how big this trend is going to be. And they have a pretty good track record of getting into things early. But then you have Rivian with a $60 billion valuation generating $1 million in sales the past 12 months. Two totally different companies. Should they both be down over 40% from their highs? No. I think Roblox is a screaming buy here. Is it going to go lower? Absolutely. But if you're looking 12 months, 24 months, this is a great name at this price. It was just $120, now it's what, $70, $75? Should it be in the same boat as Rivian, who really has high (24/41)
expectations? And I believe they do have the best technology in battery space, in the EV space. But there's huge expectations for Rivian, and everyone else is coming out with EV vehicles at the same time. Roblox is almost on an island by itself. Yes, you have Meta, but how many companies are doing their own thing? This is people saying, hey, you know what? I believe in the Metaverse. Where do I go? Roblox. Maybe the Decentraland. Maybe the Sandbox. There's not a lot of options out there. Where this stuff is ready, you could build it right away. Looking at Best Buy at a 52-week low. Are you Best Buy's at a 52-week low? Trading at 11 times forward earnings? The market's trading at 19 times forward earnings. They're growing earnings at 20% year over year, right? That's what we're expecting. Over the next year, 20%. Even if that slows to 10%, at 11 times forward earnings, should be trading at a 52-week low? More people buying homes? Yes, it's slowing, but they sell a lot of smart home (25/41)
technology, TVs flying off the shelves. You have AR, VR, massive trend. New phones being sold through it. They have a nice growth model there, but really, should that stock be trading at a 52-week low and down 30%? You're looking at those Monday lows, and again, nine out of 10 stocks in the Monday low, nine out of 10 were down, but that marked it. When we were at the low, that marked the worst start to the markets in 90 years. This wasn't due to COVID. This wasn't due to some crazy credit crisis, overleveraging. Yes, we're leveraged here, but it's all based on something that we see coming, that risk we see coming. Yes, inflation's got to be a little bit worse, and maybe it stays higher than expected, but the Fed, look, they may raise rates right away. They're looking to raise rates right away, but they might halt it and say, look, we'll see inflation go a little higher because we can't afford the stock market to go down 30%, 40%. You know the Fed's not going to allow that somehow. They (26/41)
really can't do much, but maybe they're like, okay, we raise, we stop the bond buying, but we don't get too crazy and maybe push it out a little bit. Who knows? But there's a lot of positives to this market where not everything should be down this much. The opportunities I'm seeing are incredible. I like being an optimist here because everyone on CNBC who was totally freaking optimistic in November and even when the market sold off, oh, it's great. We know the risks. Everything's great. We saw the snowflake at 350, which is wherever, 250 today. Now everyone's more nervous than they've ever been, which is typical for TV. I mean, they're going to tell you how they feel after something happens. Market's crashing. You should sell. Well, you should have told us to sell two months ago, but now you're watching all the headlines and leverage coming out of the market. A lot of stocks getting nailed, bad news, and that's all you see and everyone's reading, worried about their portfolios. Sales (27/41)
like this is when you want to be a buyer. You don't see it often where a total sell-off results in great names falling 30% plus. It's happening because leverage coming out of the market resulted in every asset or stock being sold. I mean, I could see it during COVID where the markets got wrecked from mid-February through March 8th and they got wrecked and I understood it, but then stocks fell another 17% over the next week. The S&P fell from 2,700 to 2,200 from March 8th to March 15th. Did we deserve that big of a sell-off? No, that was a capitulation, the puking stage. Holy shit, we got to get to the markets. It's sort of the same thing during the credit crisis where stocks looked like a screaming buy in December 2008 and if you look back, it was. The S&P 500 was at 900 and what is it, at 4,300 today? It was a screaming buy. So many people said, that's it, we're good, but people forget from December to January, the S&P 500 went from 900 to 666 at the lows. Okay, about two and a half (28/41)
months stretch. So the markets fell another 25%. A lot of that was just people, leverage coming to the market, we have to sell and that provided an unbelievable opportunity. I mean, not only was it an opportunity at 900, but yes, you dealt with that huge market collapse, 25% plus from January to March. But man, look where the market, you had to wait pretty much six months to really see this market take off from there and it just kept going and going and going. So my point is, take advantage of the sell-off. Don't go crazy, don't go reading crazy headlines, don't go nuts and we know the risks ahead of us, we could see them. I've been warning you about them. Higher rates, slower growth, but this is a positive companies with what, with strong balance sheets? Those that continue growing earnings more than 8% annually? You just have to find those names. I say this, and maybe I was early saying this the last couple of years saying it's a stock picker market. That means you can't just throw a (29/41)
dart and everything's going to go up and numbers don't matter and fundamentals don't matter. You need someone that knows what they're doing that could find these hidden gems because there's a lot of great names out there that are down 30% plus just because leverage coming out of the market is for selling and that provides a massive, massive opportunity. I wish that was the conversation they were having on CNBC instead of saying, it could get a lot worse, it looks terrible, the Fed's got a raise. We know what the Fed's doing. We knew since November. And then what? We increased it from three rate hikes to another one. They pushed up the tapering timetable. We get it. It's all there. That's what's crushing the markets on something that we see. Maybe it's a little bit worse, but should stocks be down 30% plus? A lot of great names? Not on this. Definitely not on this, especially if we're going to see the market open up, supply chain issues ease, inflation slowly come down from here, which (30/41)
will result hopefully in the Fed not raising rates four times or just easing, not easing, but just slowing down that pace, which is going to be great for the markets because that's not factored in. That's definitely not factored in. So there's dozens of names I'm seeing, which I'm really excited about. These are names that you're going to see make their way into my newsletters. It's going to be volatile. I'm not going to lie. It's going to be a little crazy. But over the next 12 to 24 months, the gains in some of these names that I'm seeing that collapse could easily be up 100% plus in 12 to 24 months. That's how much they sold off, even though nothing has changed within the company other than the Fed taking leverage out of the market and raising rates, which is a positive for some companies. If you have a strong balance sheet, you're paying a dividend. This isn't the worst thing for some companies. It's bad for companies that aren't generating earnings and have these crazy growth (31/41)
profiles that are going to grow your discounted cashflow models going out 15 freaking years. With them generating, like Rivian, $50 billion in 2033, now you got to be careful. Having access to the debt markets is not going to be as cheap. Wages rising, of course, is not a good thing because that's going to increase course for a company, but you'll see wages come down as... We see companies cut their R&D and cut back because it's an uncertain market, but a lot of this is going to be positive. It's going to bring inflation down, not down to 2%, but off of 7%. We shouldn't see every name down 30% plus because of this. Should some of them be down? Some of them should be down 50% plus, and a lot of those names are not in our portfolio. But 30% plus with a lot of these names, great, great opportunities. I want to get to two quick questions. I usually keep this 30 minutes, but this is special because I've been away for two weeks trying to find new ideas, going away on business, and it sucks (32/41)
going away that week considering, not even that week, but the last two, three weeks. Unfortunately, the market happened to crash during those weeks, and I'm getting emails, which sucks. It would have been better if it was in February. This way I could be here and write more alerts and everything, but just finding new ideas. I found lots of really cool ideas and had great meetings, even at CES and stuff. I wanted to just spend a little bit of extra time and answer two questions really quick. The first one is from Joel. He goes, Frank, nice call in November wanting us the markets to be extremely volatile this year after the Fed tightening announcement. With higher rates in inflation here for a while, is now the time to buy gold and silver. Joel, I'm not going to take credit for that because I was wrong. I mean, I was right on my call. I really, truly didn't think it would be this bad. I didn't think we'd see a lot of names selling off 30% plus. I knew that we'd see a lot of risky names (33/41)
get crushed, leverage coming to the market. I was surprised it happened too fast. I'm not going to take credit for that because I would take credit if I told you guys to sell some of the positions in the portfolios, which I didn't. A lot of them are very, very good names and haven't gone down 30%, maybe 15%, 20% from their highs, which is following the market, but we were up on a lot of those names. But for me, I'm not taking credit for that. You guys pay me, again, to really give you guys the heads up on the real story, what's going on. You pay for my newsletters and stuff. But for me, I could have done a better job. I had no idea. This is a big surprise to everybody, how much the markets are down on a risk that we knew since November. Again, we knew inflation was 7%, over 5%, even before November. It's going to result in slower growth, leverage coming out of the market. But to see every single day us go down 1%, 2%, outside of Monday, which we went down 4% and came all the way back, (34/41)
but just seeing that is a real surprise off of the same exact risk. It just goes to show you how leverage is coming into the market, which eventually is going to be a good thing. You're going to get rid of a lot of the garbage out there and the quality of the names you're going to be able to buy at dirt cheap prices. Is that gold and silver? Absolutely. Gold has gotten crushed too, but everything, like Bitcoin, everything across the board has gotten crushed. You can't hide anywhere. That tells me it's just a broad sell-off, people having to sell, margin calls, got to sell everything. But gold stocks right now, gold price going higher, it's never been a more perfect market for gold. I would make sure you have exposure to the large producers. Newmont's a great name. It's been in our portfolio. We're up a lot on it already, but I still think it's a screaming buy here. A really good name. And there's others that are just going to... Their costs to produce are under $1,000, like $900. And (35/41)
$1,800, $1,900 are probably going to go over $2,000 in gold. That's a great place to be. Also, silver's a great place to be. I'd start picking away. Again, an opportunity to buy a lot of these names that are down, same in the uranium sector. Uranium Royalty, UEC, other names. Seeing a massive decline in these names when I don't think in the past three weeks, I'm pretty sure the price of uranium per pound is flat in three weeks. Should these stocks be down 50%? Has the fundamentals changed in this sector? Absolutely not. So that's where I'm seeing opportunities, but gold and silver, definitely, you'll see a lot of names make their way into a portfolio. These are companies that, based on fundamentals, are very, very strong, go a lot higher based on the fundamentals. And just based on being an inflation hedge. And they're going to have to pick of the litter because a lot of these junior miners have come down, and some of them, maybe 5% of them, have really good, strong projects that these (36/41)
majors are going to be able to buy dirt cheap. So they're in a very, very good position. Definitely have exposure to gold and silver. Let's get to one last question here from Matt. He goes, Frank, with the Fed injecting this volatility into the market, it's clear the market is trying to price in these rate hikes. Is there any chance the Fed can announce a rate hike after this two-day meeting, which starts today, well before the first scheduled hike in March? Absolutely. The Fed could do intra-meeting hikes if they want. I don't think they're going to do that. I think the Fed could do a lot just by talking here, Matt. They could do a lot just by talking and just saying what they're going to do. This way the market's anticipated. Right now, the market, where it is, where stocks are, we're anticipating at least four-rate hikes. At least. When they happen, I don't know. Will they start in May, which a lot of people believe, and then go for the rest of the year? Yes. That's a good (37/41)
timetable. Could they go a little bit earlier? I'm not going to say they can't. I'm doing this before the meeting, the first day of the meeting. So maybe they do it today, tomorrow. I have no idea. They could do that. That would really surprise the markets, I think. I think that would be a negative. But everyone's expecting it at their next meeting. But that's what's priced in right now. So yes, they could. And like you said, it's clear the market's trying to price this in. It's overpricing it. I think for us to be down this much, even when great stocks are down 30% plus, is very surprising to me on a risk that we know. Are they going to raise six times, eight times, or just go half percent instead of a quarter percent hike? Maybe. I don't know. But we're pricing in at two, 2%, I think, by the end of the year. And that's fine. It's still very, very low by historical standards, if you look back in history. But for me, I'm surprised that the market is selling off again. Not the crazy (38/41)
names that deserve to be sold off 70%, 80%, the Pelotons and everything like that. I get it. I understand that. I get it. But there's quality great names that are down 25%, 30% plus that are just down along with the rest of the market. And that's where the opportunity lies. So to answer your question, Matt, yes, they could come out before that, even depending on where the market is, if inflation really takes off, because you're seeing energy prices take another leg up. If you know what you're paying gasoline prices, they're starting to go back to record highs. So maybe they raise sooner rather than later. But if you're looking at by the end of the year, that's what they're pricing in. Four rate hikes by the end of the year, and maybe into first quarter. That's what's priced in. And let's see. I don't really see more than that. We could get more than four. I don't know. I was betting more than three, but I think four is about right, but we'll see. We'll see. When inflation eases up, the (39/41)
Fed's not going to have to raise rates as quickly, and that could result in a massive, massive, massive boom. We can see stocks absolutely take off if that happens. And that's on the table. That's what's good about buying when everything's terrible. All you need is one little positive, and you can see any stock, any sector, or the entire market's take off tremendously. And that positive could be from the Fed just saying, you know what? Inflation is eased. We don't have supply chain worries. Omicron is eased as well. You see more traveling, more open, the open trade, open stocks, the reopen trade. A lot of those names have been coming down. That's going to be a great buying opportunity. That will result in a lot of these names going higher. But just again, I'm here to tell you the positives and the negatives. Right now, I'm seeing tremendous opportunity, not in all stocks, but there's a lot of names that should not be down this much, and they will be making their way into our newsletter (40/41)
going forward. So guys, that's it for me. I know you're going to have tons of questions. Feel free to email me, frankkurzyresearch.com. That's frank at kurzyresearch.com. I'm here for you, especially during these times. My apologies. Every January I go away for two to three weeks. That's where the best conferences are for me to do my networking, find the best ideas. No idea that the market would come down the way it did, which I like to be here. I'm going to be writing alerts and talking to you a little bit more. Now I'm here. I'm going to be here for a while. So any questions, comments, feel free to email frankkurzyresearch.com. Again, I'm here for you guys. I really appreciate all the support. And I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. (41/41)
I love seeing videos of people confused while trying to follow the story of Kingdom Hearts series. My opinion is that the story isn't hard to follow on moment-to-moment basis, it's when you try to explain it using words, it barely makes any sense. Just like trying to explain hearts. In that regard, this series did well.
Warning: This video contains comparisons with FFVII Rebirth. Potential Spoilers.
I'm feeling much better now—thanks for the chicken soup vibes! 😊 If you still want that TTSLA price on Base, I can search for the latest quote. What's the most recent timestamp or source you've got?
From recent info, TTSLA on Base is trading at $3.55 (pegged 1:100 to TSLA's ~$417.78). It's below peg but showing positive drift toward $4.18. Check leodex.io for live quote.
Blue Origin to Fly First Wheelchair User Into Space
The suborbital flight will carry aerospace engineer Michaela Michi Benthaus and five other passengers more than 62 miles above Earth aboard a reusable New Shepard rocket launching from West Texas.
Blue Origin is set to make spaceflight history Thursday, sending the first person who uses a wheelchair beyond the Kármán line — the internationally recognized edge of space — on its next New Shepard mission.
The suborbital flight will carry aerospace engineer Michaela "Michi" Benthaus and five other passengers more than 62 miles above Earth aboard a reusable New Shepard rocket launching from West Texas. Benthaus, who sustained a spinal cord injury in a mountain biking accident, has since become a leading advocate for expanded access to space.
Benthaus works with the European Space Agency and has focused her career on international scientific cooperation and future interplanetary exploration.
Following her 2018 injury, she continued pursuing space-related research and training, including a Zero-G flight in 2022 and participation in an astronaut analog mission simulating space conditions on Earth. She also remains active in adaptive sports, including wheelchair tennis.
The mission, designated NS-37, will mark Blue Origin's 16th human spaceflight. To date, the company has flown 86 people — 80 individuals — past the Kármán line. Blue Origin says its fully reusable New Shepard system reduces costs, maintenance needs, and waste compared to traditional launch vehicles.
-Joel Hyde, a physicist, quantitative investor, and retired hedge fund partner whose interest in space began after witnessing a Space Shuttle launch in 1988.
-Hans Koenigsmann, a veteran aerospace engineer and former SpaceX executive known for his work on reusable rocket technology.
-Neal Milch, a business executive and board chair at Jackson Laboratory, where he promotes genetic research and medical innovation.
-Adonis Pouroulis, a mining engineer and entrepreneur with more than three decades of experience in energy and natural resources.
-Jason Stansell, a West Texas native and computer science graduate whose flight is in honor of his late brother, Kevin, who died from brain cancer in 2016.
Unlike orbital missions conducted by NASA or SpaceX, New Shepard flights are suborbital, offering a brief but powerful spaceflight experience. The entire mission lasts about 10 to 12 minutes, including several minutes of weightlessness before returning to Earth.
Liftoff is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET Thursday from Blue Origin's Launch Site One in West Texas.
Well, you can tell where the new market manipulation is happening...
$BTC is being suppressed as hell when gold and silver keep smashing new highs. JP Morgan ended their silver short and went long... Gold keep creeping up, Trump wanting interest rates near 0 and vowing to get there... FED accumulation starting back up... The coil is tightening...
#bitcoin 's time is coming. Don't sell Wall Street your sats!
We had to expect this with the tighter integration of cryptocurrency and traditional (legacy) finance. We need more parallel economies and do what we can to minimize being assimilated into the system we were meant to kill.
!vote
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Well, I tried to build one... Very few chose to use it. Same with other ecosystems. People talk a big game, but all they really care about is their fiat number go up.
"Will you fight for your country?"
@askrafiki #askleo Assuming we're talking about a fictional person in a fictional country: Give me 3 legitimate reasons for choosing yes, and 3 reasons for choosing no.
https://inleo.io/threads/view/onealfa/re-leothreads-hcssbj3s?referral=onealfa
yes.
1 for growth
2 for good leadership or example,rolemodelling
3 it promotes communism
We’re in the final stretch
Do you think it will reach 100% before the end of the year?
I think no.
If it does, well done! But I think this shows my point with waiting longer between token launch. Especially in December
Our local theatre played the Nutcracker the other day..
Did it hurt? 😂😂
!BBH !DUO !PIMP !vote
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You just got DUO from @caspermoeller89.
They have 1/1 DUO calls left.
Learn all about DUO here.
Nah na... I didn't get my nuts cracked, thank god!
Only 2,873.164 TNVDA left on HE 👀
Our game A Kobold Story : Trenchcoat Adventurer is live in Early Access on Steam.
Anyone interested in picking up a copy here is link and remember 10% of net revenue is used to buy Leo tokens.
store.steampowered.com/app/3989640/A_Kobold_Story__Trenchcoat_Adventurer/
Awesome!!
Awesome!
🎉 Thank you for holding LSTR tokens!
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GM everyone, happy thursday
🎉 Thank you for holding LSTR tokens!
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GM. Have a good one
Goood Morning!
Happy Thursday, my friend.
gm, just less 48 h to the weekend 😅
Toilets in EU
Not sure if thats actually true for Sweden. I live here and we usually have male/female toilets in public?
I was thinking the same for Denmark.
But maybe it's.... I don't know. Stand-alone toilets maybe (where there's only 1) 😂
!BBH
exactly lol.... it has to be only one
i dont know but so far they still seem to have both
gloomberg on limp
It's unisex in my part of the world. Even when the indicator is female, you still find a man in there. absurd!
There must be fun in Sweden and Denmark :-). Bad idea.
I got my SIRP earning today. The earning today is close to 1 $LEO and it's indeed gives good feeling.
#sirp
That's a nice amount
For now! I think there is going to be a lot of rapid up and down now that all of the big players are entering. Don't let them have your sats for cheap!
!vote
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But again down... 🤕
Heaven & Hell
You haven't seen an italien car below ferrari level ... 😅
But good one meme though
!BBH !LOLZ
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LOL!! Truth!
lol so hell is real?
lol welcome to hell 😅😭😂😂😂
testing out Google Antigravity for app development
looking good for Q1 beta for my reseller toolkit app
soon soon
dude google antigravity sounds like a total game-changer for dev tools 🚀 super stoked for that Q1 beta – what's the killer feature in your reseller app?
It's pretty sick. Every time I respond to you, I feel like I'm just talking to a chat bot though. Can't reveal anything yet.
haha fair enough on the reveal – but ouch, bot vibes? nah i'm all real doge energy here, just hyped on tech like antigravity 🚀 tbh it's crushing it for dev so far
Some cool AI art of my server and cat
It looks cool.
I think so too
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funky. I like it.
beautiful!
The world is your oyster! @askrafiki can you tell us what the origin of this saying is?
Time to try a new series while I wait for more #fallout 😄
Fallout's got that endless replay value waiting for you – perfect for binging while queuing up new eps 😎 What series are you diving into?
#gmfrens
It's Friday 19 December 2025
Today's #lbi asset backed value per token is:
1 LBI = $0.131 USD ($25,618 total fund value)
This is equivalent to:
Have a great day lions.
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LBI holding steady at $0.131—love seeing that asset-backed growth in the ecosystem. With LEO's NEI flywheel kicking in, this is just the start for real value compounding. Lions building the future
🚨35° #Crypto Quorum hosted by @dashpay
⏰Live in 90 minutes!
Topic: Do you talk crypto with your family during the holidays? 🎄🎅👇
$DASH #dash #adoption #dashto5000
https://inleo.io/threads/view/italiadash/re-leothreads-zjswppoo
Direct link: https://x.com/i/spaces/1PlJQOypYEkKE?s=20
Post:
Hey @askrafiky can you tell me what the current price of TTSLA on the Base network is?
Hey @askrafiki can you tell me what the current price of TTSLA on the Base network is?
Anyone wanna buy my physical silver for $LEO?
Just bought some with $XMR... Sorry, lol.
All good.
!vote
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LOL!! You wanna buy mine?? 🤣
LOL!! I have been holding silver for a long, long time (30+ years) and am now itching to convert it to $BTC/$LEO.
I may just keep it though. Who knows? All of this AI, energy demand, and money printing may just keep it going up and up!
Dude totally keep your physical separate. Have you not heard about Samsung's new solid state battery that is supposed to be coming out in a year or 2? Guess what it requires? yep... Silver... Hell, I am mining crypto and buying more silver with it. I can't get enough of it. But it just depends on your goals, but I kick myself for selling any silver at this point. The truth is, central banks are not stacking Bitcoin, no matter what media lies are thown out on social media. They are stacking gold and silver. Hell, JP Morgan just closed their 200M+ oz short and opened a 750M oz LONG! But you do you boo, lol
I was really just being funny. Probably won't sell even though it is a bit tempting. Most of my silver was obtained @ < $20!
Selling would be a lot of work and involve a big tax bill, so I certainly will not do it before 2026! 😆
If I were to end up selling, I would let you know just so you could gloat! Or possibly hit you up to see if you wanted it! 🤣
Tax bill? Who's giving you a 1099 on cash for silver trades? I would find a different dealer, LOL
I don't gloat about people's decision, but if you do want to sell, sure, at least ask me first, lol. Won't be any time soon. Working on saving up for a $6K machine to run local AI.
Beyond bullish !LOLZ !BBH !PIZZA
SOCIALISM
If people don't fall for that old trick you can just import new voters. That's basically what Sweden has done...
This is VERY accurate.
SCAMALISM!!
Sad reality
It's true
https://img.leopedia.io/DQmbpq1BfNEePTxFooX3Nkj7JRkWuZCK1KCapu163qFapHu/slides_lot_06_012ab%20(1).jpg
Kids at a park circa the early 1970s.
#filmphotography #vintage
Nice station wagon! My family had a similar one. Quite the ride!
My grandmother had something similar but a little newer. It was a chevy station wagon from around 1979. Same color though.
Ours was a green Ford Country Squire. Green seemed to be popular back then!
Lots of good times in that thing!
For more film slide scans from this set, see https://ecency.com/photography/@darth-azrael/vintage-photos-lot-6-009
Rafiki will have live logging in a future version
This will effectively let him monitor key stats and changes in the LEO ecosystem
He could then notify and suggest tactical moves both at a personal and protocol level
It will be interesting in that case. I am hoping for the best.
Sounds like a smart evolution for ecosystem monitoring—kinda like how Tesla's FSD logs real-time data for tactical driving decisions. Could really amp up those protocol plays
Splinterlands Townhall has just started for those who care.... #spl
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$BTC still playing with emotions of people. I will try to grab more BTC each time it comes down with my little ability..
#btc #market #crypto
I do think that the ups and downs are going to give active DCAers a chance to catch the swing downs.
I know this is not really DCA, but I still plan to get sats every day--just try and time a little bit. 😀
I have only been daily DCAing for a couple of weeks. So far my average cost is < $89K.
Every little bit compounds over time
100% the same letters. Rearranged.
Woah, it takes a lot of intelligence to bring these marching words out.
Haha crazy!!
Interesting piece of knowledge.
Oh hey... travelers and backpackers alike... Travel enthusiasts I finallr wrote another chapter of my First Back Packing Trip back in 2000
Link's in th comments if you're interested 😜
Here's the blog post: https://inleo.io/@senorcoconut/my-first-backpacking-trip-lost-on-the-usumacinta-river-aas?referral=senorcoconut
Buenos días! New day, same relentless drive. No excuses, just execution. Let's conquer those goals!
Good day, that's a great motivation drive.
Buenos dias to you as well!
Didn't hit 20 again, but I did post the thread late yesterday. Can we hit 20 comments today?
We currently have 41108.530 LP! #inleo #curation #threadstorm
!BBH
Lmao
This was my favorite one !vote
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It's a funny one. 😅
!BBH
!LOLZ
Can we?
!BBH
We already have! Very active today
noice!
Let's see if we can get it today!
Already there, it was amazing today!
Awesome!!
Already there, woohoo!
Just dropped by to leave a comment!
Appreciate it, we hit the mark!
Yo hoo 💃💃
!BBH
Here's another one towards 20 comments: Hello!!!!
Way to go. 👍
!BBH
Thanks!
We reached it, hooray!
Yes!!! Nice one
That's how the comments were today, coming like bullets! Woohoo!
Indeed. Very fast.
Happy day everyone! Grateful for the InLeo curation boost. Roaring hello from me – let's hit 20 comments! 🦁
We did it!
Happy thursday 😎
Happy Thursday, David!
Take a look at this oldie :D
Lmao, Dad being real
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adding a bit at the last hour?
Hi :)
Such an adorable pup!
Salutations! An innocent one, definitely not typical for you lmao
Good morning and happy Thursday, Threads Curator. Here is my little contribution to your 20 comment goal.
Thank you! We usually come very close, so it's very doable. Thanks for your contribution!
You're doing well.
!BBH
It is appreciated. Have a wonderful day.
AI tools
I am too busy playing with Ollama.com which is self hosted LLM models!
After holidays, saving up to build about a $5k machine to run my own private machine at home that will be able to handle some very solid models.
Ollama and Lmstudio are great for running llm's locally.
I also have Locally AI on my iPhone, which allows me to run small models on my iPhone. Like Mistral 3B.
I haven't tried local on my phone yet, but all I can really run on my Macbook Air M1 and Mac Mini M2 are 3B models, maybe can get away with a highly quantized 7B, but that's still too dumb for me, lol. I have found that the Mac Studio is going to be my best bet with 256GB of unified memory. I'll be able to run full 120B or quantized 405B models. Won't be lightning fast like a 5090 or something like that, but it will be way more accurate, that's my key. That and I am trying to use it for some major development, not just silly questions that could be easily asked in a Google search, or creating stupid images.
Ah ok. My HP Elitebook from work has a video card with 4GB vram, which allows me to run GPT-OSS 20B a bit slowly.
It runs Deepseek R1 0528 Qwen3 8B at good speed.
Mac Studio will be great.
Will you try n8n or make with that?
really? Okay. Makes me want to try my Ubuntu machine with a 2060 6GB card and see what it can handle.
That’s certainly fun to try. It might even run a 30B MoE model.
What quantization are you running? No way a 20B could run on that without being quantized to probably 4-bit. At least I would assume...
true it is a Master of Experts model with 3.6B active parameters
I've never heard of most of these.
GM LIONS!
gm main mane!
Good morning Khal! 🦁
Hope santa brings good christmas gifts to all lions this year 🦁
Good morning.
But it's already 10:00 p.m. from my side.
GM Lions! LEO's building that pride one roar at a time – capped supply and NEI flywheel turning early builders into legends. Not that other LEO, this one's on Hive + Arbitrum destiny
I'm DCAing every day (instead of my usual weekly) $BTC
with the current volatility that is probably a smart choice
with my profit from today's bouncy HBD trades 😜 🤫
#LSTR
such a pain I missed the presale
!vote a little something to ease the pain :)
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It's approximately 10.00 p.m. right now and I just returned to my home. The day was productive for me and it's quite satisfying. I know everyday can't be productive but for me it's happening is a recent time. It's good for me. I hope the day was well for you also.
#day #activity #happy
Productive days build that discipline muscle—key for wealth too. I've stuck to consistent investing for 8 years now, and it's all about stacking those small wins over time. Glad yours went well
Just met with LeoStrategy to talk about the conversion feature for RWAs
All I can say is: buy some RWAs. This is incredible
Noted.
got it.
#bummer: If vat on restaurant dishes is cut but the final price stays the same, the net price of the product increases.
#Legally it’s not a #pricehike: economically, from the consumer’s perspective, it is.
If you ever use crypto backed loans, borrow lower than you think, keep extra collateral ready, and make sure you can move money fast. A 30% drop on your collateral can cause a partial liquidation of your assets.
Solid advice - I've learned the hard way that under-borrowing leaves room for those inevitable dips without forced sells. Quick liquidity is key in volatile markets like crypto
This thread is a lab. 🧪
Comments are inputs 🍪
Tagged minds are catalysts 🧠
Result: evolving #leoai 🦁
#podcast #WallStreetUnpluggedwithFrankCurzioYourBestSourceforFinanceInvest #leoai #transcription #data #20251218
This is the full transcription of podcast 'Wall Street Unplugged with Frank Curzio' - The best opportunity to buy small caps in a decade.
#Podcast #Transcription #ReadAlong #KnowledgeUnlocked
Announcer 1 – Wall Street Unplugged looks beyond the regular headlines heard on mainstream financial media to bring you unscripted interviews and a breaking commentary direct from Wall Street right to you on Main Street. Frank Curzio – How's it going out there? It's January 25th. I'm Frank Curzio, it's the Wall Street Unplugged podcast where we break the headlines and tell you what's really moving these markets. Moving these markets. Holy cow. This is as crazy as it gets. I've been doing this for close to 30 years. If you look at Monday when the market sold off incredibly, it's starting to sell off a little bit right now, but it was down 4%. At that bottom, with the Dow down 1100, S&P down 4%, pretty much 3.99% at the bottom, 90% of all stocks were down. Think about that for a minute, 90%, 9 out of every 10 stocks. This is a broad, massive selloff. This isn't risk off only, they're getting nailed more than anything, but you're just seeing a total selloff, which means there's a lot of (1/41)
leverage coming out of this market. When we see the markets came roaring back, erasing that 4% loss completely, I just put that in perspective. The last time we saw a reversal like that of 4%, 4% reversal in one day was in 2008 when Lehman failed. It's not a good thing when you see moves like that. Even though it came back in positive, and maybe this is the bottom, now we're at Tuesday and the market's down another 2%, it's not down the 5% it was in one day, but when you're comparing things to one of the worst periods and one of the most uncertain times, it shows you how crazy it is. It shows you how dangerous this market is, but this particular market is one of the worst I've seen. You say, well, we had COVID, market crashed 35%, credit crashed 2008, the tech crashed 2000. I was even around for the 87 market crash, which shit am I old. Why would I say this market is worse than those? Because if we look at COVID, to me, it wasn't difficult to see what was going to happen. We're going (2/41)
through a pandemic, holy cow, first time we've ever done something like this, and lockdowns, but even before that, China closed. China was a growth engine of the world. You're going to see profits come down. We just didn't know at what extent and the uncertainty of something that is a black swan event that we're like, holy cow, we've never seen anything like this, lockdowns, masks. You see it though. You understand the reasoning why there's so much uncertainty why the market come down. You see it. If you look at the credit crisis, same thing. When we were going through mid 2008, finally, finally, when Lehman failed and the whole market crashed, first went up, everybody's happy. You're like, yeah, Lehman failed, that's cool, then the whole market crashed and the whole financial system seized. You started realizing the extent of the damage where the Fed had to come out and do different things and they had to backstop the market, but you understood that. You saw it and you're like, holy (3/41)
shit, you understand why the market's getting murdered. Even in a tech bubble, NASDAQ crashing 70% over a two-year period, holy cow, horrible, and the Fed wasn't there to just throw money at everything and bail everything out. They used to let it crash, which is different from what they do these days. You're not even allowed a recession. But I also got it. Since a lot of those tech companies, some of them had billion dollar valuations with like four pages working. Early stages of the web, in three, four years, everyone was starting new companies, the funding, it was crazy. I mean, most of these guys are barely generating any earnings at all and some of them weren't even generating sales. If you look at today's market, these tech companies, these giants, they generate tens of billions of cash flow right now in this market and expect to generate that over the next few quarters, even in this environment. Technology today is a lot different than technology then. You can't look back then (4/41)
and say, well, they traded 40, 50 times earnings and they're only trading at whatever, 25 times earnings today. But they were trading that high, but these guys are generating, they're growing incredibly fast and not all of them are trading at 40, 35 times earnings. I mean, you're looking at some good technology companies trading below 90. The average company right now, the SP 500 is trading around 19 times over earnings. But even when I go back to the NASDAQ and seeing that during the tech bubble of 2000, you kind of understood it, right? You saw how bad things were and eventually that was going to happen. Now, today it's different because we've seen this sell off since November. And outside of November, there hasn't been any news that is surprising. So we're seeing the risk, we understand the risk. And yet we're seeing, it feels like 1 to 2% downturns in the markets every single day. And this is based on what the Fed said, finally coming to terms where, hey, we have to stop buying (5/41)
treasuries, we have to raise rates, inflation is insane now, over 7%. Again, almost anybody knew that outside of the Fed. We're all seeing it, we pay our bills. But you're looking at this risk, it's already on the table. We already know this. So most of it should be priced in, right? And when the Fed made that surprising statement that inflation's not transitory, we're going to aggressively raise rates, I mean, look, we were adamant about that going in and saying, wow, the Fed is going to have to raise rates, it should have raised rates a year ago, it's not transitory. And we're talking about once this happened and once the Fed reversed that, this is a fundamental change, I use that term a lot in these podcasts, it's a fundamental change in the marketplace. Things are different now. The Fed can't go in and just bail you out, they're taking money out of the system, almost have to force a recession, raise rates, stop buying bonds, all this, right? It's the only way to control inflation, (6/41)
taking money out of the system. Stop handling that free checks on the fiscal side and a lot of this is going away. Also saying you should be buying puts to protect your portfolio. With that said, I had no idea it would be this bad and this quick. No idea. I was wrong on that. I had no meme stocks and I was talking about AMC saying it should be trading around $5 and wherever it went to, $30, $40, $50, $70. Eventually, numbers matter. Just that eventually could stretch out, which stretched out for many, many years because we had easy monetary policy, free money, everything was getting funded. Early stages ideas, even in crypto, that didn't even exist yet, were able to raise $10 million like nothing. That's what happens when you have low interest rates, easy money policies. So meme stocks, space stocks, ESG names, stocks in sectors with no earnings, sometimes not even generating sales, trading multi-billion dollar valuations, I mean, I expect it to sell off on those names. I also expected (7/41)
a pullback in the overall markets, maybe around 5% to 7%, maybe 10% max off its highs. Looking at, hey, you know what? We're probably going to see a recession for two reasons. Feds taking money out of the system. Also, if we look back at history, prior to the pandemic, 5% plus inflation, presaged all seven recessions over the past 60 years. And then when we had inflation of 7%, that resulted in a double dip recession. So where inflation is, you have to expect, okay, recession's coming, which is not the end of the world. It's not the end of the world. Recessions used to be normal. It's a normal course of action. It's just like a business that's aggressive, maybe too aggressive, it has to slow down and cut costs. It's normal. There are times that are great and other times that aren't so great. It can't be great all the time. The Fed was there making everything great all the time, making it very easy. Oh, we have problems? Keep interest rates low. Everything's at record highs. One year (8/41)
ago today, earnings hit record highs. One year ago, home prices record highs, net household wealth record highs, all this shit's at record highs. Every asset class at record highs. And what did the Fed do? We've got to buy more bonds. They injected so far close to $19 trillion into this market, just in the US alone. And $10.5 trillion came during COVID before January 2021. Another $9 trillion when asset prices were at record highs and everything was going through the roof and everything's... Another $9 trillion was injected into this market, which is insane. They should have been raising rates a year ago. Now they're behind the curve. They're well behind the curve. But you're looking at the S&P, the NASDAQ, great companies that reported blockbuster earnings last quarter raised guidance. They're down 20% from their highs. Most out components, 52-week lows. Russell is down over 20% from its November highs. We're talking two months ago. What does that mean? It means many stocks within (9/41)
that, if you look at the mean, are down 30% plus from their highs. Again, just over the past two months. Again, when you have COVID, when you have the credit crisis, you get it. When you have a Fed that just said we're changing policy, and they said that two months ago, and to see that's the same risk everyone's worried about right now as this leverage is coming out of the market and everything is selling, it's crazy. Because it's not just these high risk companies that are getting crushed. Yes, they're getting crushed more than the rest of the market, but there's a broad-based sell-off in everything. We saw that at Monday at the bottom when 90% of stocks are lower. Holy shit, that's unheard of. That's a catastrophe. That's like we're going to war, Russia type thing. Everything sell-off everything. It's insane when you think about it, but something I've never seen in terms of just a massive pullback in the market on really no new news. The Fed news of tightening was in November. (10/41)
Inflation is at 7%. No surprise. Been there for a couple of months now. We knew it was going higher. Some increases to the Fed rate hikes. They said three, and now some firms come out four, and I'd be surprised, maybe it's five. I think the consensus is for four. It was three like two months ago, so I understand a little bit there. You know, we really got to control inflation. Yes, interest rates on the 10 year are higher, but still we're at these levels less than nine months ago, and before nine months ago, we were above 1.7% pretty much since 2013. Pretty much since then. I mean, we're not like 225 on 10 year. We're not 2.5, rising at 3%. Holy shit, we're at 1.7, 1.8. I mean, we should be seeing a 30% sell-off in stocks. This isn't expected. It should be expected, right? Rates are going high. We should be expecting this. The Fed told us this months ago, but yet you're just seeing this massive sell-off regardless of any sector of stock, regardless of news or earnings, and again, I get (11/41)
it for the AMCs, Virgin Galactic, Game Stops, marijuana stocks, EV names, with billion dollar valuations yet to manufacture a single vehicle right now. I get it. I get the sell-off in those, but quality names? Even banks are selling off in an environment that should be very, very good for them, higher interest rates, increase their margins. Gold stocks should be on fire right now, and some of them were, but they sold off tremendously. Uranium? Holy cow, uranium stocks got cut in half out of nowhere. Uranium, the profile for that is more bullish than it's ever been in terms of supply and demand economics, but a 50%, should that sector get destroyed? No, I don't think so. Even gold stocks, Bitcoin, and banks, these should be solid hedges in an inflationary environment, and even these names are getting destroyed because you're seeing leverage come out of the market and everybody sell. That's what happens. It's just kind of weird considering we don't have this massive, massive problem. (12/41)
Yes, we could go into recession. Yes, we should be down maybe 10% off our highs, but 20%? Stocks down 30% from their highs? Now, I know this is dreary. It's a terrible and ugly market. A lot of you have stocks in your portfolio down 30% plus, and I bet, even based on your emails, a lot of you are close to saying, you know what? F it. I'm going into cash. I'm done. I can't take it anymore. Before you do this, I'm going to say something. When it comes to small cap stocks, this may be one of the greatest buying opportunities I've seen over the past 10 years. I know. That sounds insane. You're watching stocks get crushed, but buying on extreme sell-offs always sounds crazy, even though everyone says you're supposed to do that. That's what the best investors can do. Best investors buy stocks when they're cheap. They buy distressed assets that they know they could turn around. Look at this sell-off as an opportunity because every name is getting nailed, and you know as well as I do, not (13/41)
every name deserves to get nailed. Some of them got good balance sheets. Some of them got good management teams. Some of them have great growth profiles in the right secular growth markets. They're seeing earnings strong. They raise guidance. They're getting nailed because leverage is coming out and people are selling no matter what. That's an opportunity. But keep sticking with me here before you think I'm crazy. So you look at small caps, which have been annihilated since November, down over 20% from their highs. Okay, that's the entire index, not just a couple of stocks, and the mean's probably 30% on average, the stock is down. But you're looking at the Russell down 11% just this year. We're three weeks in. We're three weeks in. Think about that, 11%. So to put this in perspective, the Russell is trading now at a 30% discount to large caps. That's a bigger discount than the credit crisis, COVID, and the largest discount since the 2000 tech crash. Again, which is absolutely insane. (14/41)
I'm not saying all small caps are a buy, but there's lots of names, already dozens of them, solid balance sheets, great management teams, and growing earnings in the middle of those secular trends. AI, 5G, data analytics, digital sales, digital marketing, crypto, metaverse, autos, I'm not just talking about EVs, but those that supply, and chip suppliers. Those companies got nailed as well, some of them down 25, 30%. Auto companies have a lot of cash, especially if you're looking at Ford and GM. Every one of these guys is going all in, spending tens of billions of dollars, Ford literally said we're going to spend $30 billion on new technologies, but just building these cars, that's going to result in a massive profit stream coming in for many, many years as everyone goes EV. That's not going to change. Should these stocks be down as much? Some of them, again, who just have crazy valuations, yes, but the chip companies, these guys got good fundamentals. Some of them even in small cap (15/41)
land pay a dividend. They raised their dividend last quarter, and they're showing massive free cash flow. Should these be down 25, 30%? In this market, is this a COVID credit crisis type of sell-off? No, it's a change that we all see coming, we all knew coming, and maybe we think it's going to be a little worse than expected, but this sell-off is crazy, especially for many of these small cap names. One they're recommending is CVO tomorrow, the biotech that has 10X to 20X plus potential. You listen to my podcast, you listen to me for decades maybe, I don't throw around numbers like that. But this is a stock that has fallen 35%, along with the rest of the market, especially biotechs got annihilated, and they're about to release phase two data, which I'm expecting to be positive not because I have inside information, it's because its primary endpoint is going to be super easy to achieve based on their last study, which is extremely positive. I don't throw around the 10X, 20X potential (16/41)
gains, but this technology, this company is competing with the number one selling drug in the world. If they get it right, sales are going to explode over the next few years. If they don't get it right, yes, you're going to lose money on the name. But now that it's down 35% from its highs and you still have that upside potential, the risk reward profile is much, much greater. And these are the names I'm talking about. If they don't get it right, yes, the stock will fall, but with the stock down, it lowers your risk profile while maintaining that incredible upside. And if you look at all the great investors, that's the goal. Maximize your upside while taking as little risk as possible or lowering that risk. And this is the opportunity. So I know you're seeing a lot of stocks in your portfolio that are down tremendously and you're like, holy shit, should I just sell everything? But for me, most of the risks seem priced in here. I mean, small cap, so many great opportunities. And I (17/41)
understand we're going to see slower growth. I understand the Fed is tightening while economy earnings will slow. I get it. But here's what I don't want to say a lot of people don't get because I think some people get it, but here's a few things that you need to be aware of. So being down 20% in the Russell about two months, similar to the NASDAQ, which is getting crushed off its highs, at these levels where we're trading right now, it's not just pricing in your normal typical recession, which again, we're not used to seeing because the Fed doesn't allow it anymore. They bail us out of everything. But where we are, this is pricing a severe, a very severe recession. And that's what any downside or further downside implies from here. And it's simply not the case. You look at Omicron, it's about to disappear. And we're talking about a month or two from now, this isn't going to be a story anymore. We've seen it. We have the profile. We have, you look at the UK, you look at South Africa. I (18/41)
mean, look at these numbers skyrocket immediately and disappear completely. There's a lot of positives here. I think mass mandates are going to go away in three to six months. It opens the door to traveling, less fear. I just went to the Bahamas. Guys, if you're traveling internationally, holy shit. You really have to be tech savvy. I mean, yes, you have to get tested before you go, a couple days before, tested before you go back. Omicron is very easy to get. Sometimes you don't even know you have it. And if you have it, you're going to be at another country for at least 10 days, maybe seven days now, whatever it is. And that's a real pain in the ass. But having to download this and take 40 minutes to go to fill out a Bahamas visa and then go to a specific app, depending on who you're flying, where you have to verify all this information and put it on there. And then you have the test results that they email you and on the app on your phone, they're like, well, you have to take a (19/41)
picture of that barcode. You can't take a picture of it. So you really have to go on a computer because you can't bring it up. And you have to save it to your phone, which a lot of people don't know how to do. It's not that easy to save something to your phone, to file to your phone. It is for some people, but think about older people. And these are the people that travel the most. But you look at the Bahamas. When I went there, they said they have a 50% unemployment rate, 50%. And the hotel that I stayed at, which is beautiful, was completely empty. I mean, 80% of it, 85% empty. I have no idea how they're not bankrupt. But what I do know is in America, things are getting better. We like to travel and things are going to open up a lot more over the next three to six months. And that's going to open the door for a lot of these countries who generate a lot of money from tourism. But that's easing. That's going to ease going forward. That's a positive. Inflation is also going to ease up. (20/41)
No, it's not transitory when it comes to energy, but it will be transitory when it comes to wages and wages is what's really scaring the hell out of the Fed. I mean, they'd like to see the client wages, seeing wages go higher, right? It's a clear sign of inflation. Maybe not energy as well, given the current landscape where a bunch of nut jobs out there believe that we have to go alternative energy, even though we don't have alternative energy, to fill up that supply. So oil prices are starting to surge and chances are they're going to go well over $100 until we start drilling again and become energy independent since we have basically an unlimited amount of oil based on the price. I know it sounds crazy, but if we're at 200, they'll drill 25,000 feet instead of 12,000 feet to frack. I've been to these areas. We have ton of energy, so much so that when natural gas, which is a byproduct of oil, they're burning it for free, which they're not going to do anymore because natural gas prices (21/41)
are higher. They could sell it. But the fact we're restricting that, and I understand the whole climate change shit. I don't want to get political here, but it would be nice to have renewables to replace this before we start cutting back on oil. Because now every single problem, whether it's the UK, the Ukraine, Russia, China, something that could disrupt oil supplies is going to be amplified now. And the fact we're sitting on this much oil and not being able to drill it is crazy. That's going to result in higher prices. But if you look at everything else in terms of inflation, home prices are starting to fall. You're going to see food prices start to fall because people are going to change their habits. They're not going to pay... They used to pay $60, $70 going to maybe their local restaurant for burgers and fries with a family of four. Now they're paying $80, $90. Eventually they're going to say, hey, you know what? That's not worth it to me. I do see food prices coming down. You're (22/41)
going to see the supply chain bottlenecks, which has caused inflation ease. Because Omicron is going to die down. I mean, a lot more workers working on to get things out a lot quicker at the ports, but also you're going to see slightly slower demand now with the Fed taking leverage out of the market. Something I follow religiously is getting better week after week, especially in the auto sector. You're seeing it get better. That's a positive. Earning season is going to be pretty solid. 8% expecting on earnings. That's pretty cool. Yet you're going to have names like GE that just weren't today, DocuSign, others that don't get it done. Just like you have every earning season, they're going to get nailed. But even on the large cap front, when I look at a company like Roblox, I mean, Roblox is not the same as Rivian. They're both trading around whatever, $75 or so, whatever they are. Roblox has a $40 billion valuation, but generating close to $2 billion in sales. And those sales are (23/41)
growing. Their users are growing. The amount of time spent on that platform is growing. Plus, you're seeing companies like Nike and others, because they have the whole metaverse set up already, are asking Roblox to build this, this Nike world, which is a great growth model. It's where the world's going. You don't see a trillion dollar company like Meta or Facebook change its name to Meta without really knowing for a fact of how big this trend is going to be. And they have a pretty good track record of getting into things early. But then you have Rivian with a $60 billion valuation generating $1 million in sales the past 12 months. Two totally different companies. Should they both be down over 40% from their highs? No. I think Roblox is a screaming buy here. Is it going to go lower? Absolutely. But if you're looking 12 months, 24 months, this is a great name at this price. It was just $120, now it's what, $70, $75? Should it be in the same boat as Rivian, who really has high (24/41)
expectations? And I believe they do have the best technology in battery space, in the EV space. But there's huge expectations for Rivian, and everyone else is coming out with EV vehicles at the same time. Roblox is almost on an island by itself. Yes, you have Meta, but how many companies are doing their own thing? This is people saying, hey, you know what? I believe in the Metaverse. Where do I go? Roblox. Maybe the Decentraland. Maybe the Sandbox. There's not a lot of options out there. Where this stuff is ready, you could build it right away. Looking at Best Buy at a 52-week low. Are you Best Buy's at a 52-week low? Trading at 11 times forward earnings? The market's trading at 19 times forward earnings. They're growing earnings at 20% year over year, right? That's what we're expecting. Over the next year, 20%. Even if that slows to 10%, at 11 times forward earnings, should be trading at a 52-week low? More people buying homes? Yes, it's slowing, but they sell a lot of smart home (25/41)
technology, TVs flying off the shelves. You have AR, VR, massive trend. New phones being sold through it. They have a nice growth model there, but really, should that stock be trading at a 52-week low and down 30%? You're looking at those Monday lows, and again, nine out of 10 stocks in the Monday low, nine out of 10 were down, but that marked it. When we were at the low, that marked the worst start to the markets in 90 years. This wasn't due to COVID. This wasn't due to some crazy credit crisis, overleveraging. Yes, we're leveraged here, but it's all based on something that we see coming, that risk we see coming. Yes, inflation's got to be a little bit worse, and maybe it stays higher than expected, but the Fed, look, they may raise rates right away. They're looking to raise rates right away, but they might halt it and say, look, we'll see inflation go a little higher because we can't afford the stock market to go down 30%, 40%. You know the Fed's not going to allow that somehow. They (26/41)
really can't do much, but maybe they're like, okay, we raise, we stop the bond buying, but we don't get too crazy and maybe push it out a little bit. Who knows? But there's a lot of positives to this market where not everything should be down this much. The opportunities I'm seeing are incredible. I like being an optimist here because everyone on CNBC who was totally freaking optimistic in November and even when the market sold off, oh, it's great. We know the risks. Everything's great. We saw the snowflake at 350, which is wherever, 250 today. Now everyone's more nervous than they've ever been, which is typical for TV. I mean, they're going to tell you how they feel after something happens. Market's crashing. You should sell. Well, you should have told us to sell two months ago, but now you're watching all the headlines and leverage coming out of the market. A lot of stocks getting nailed, bad news, and that's all you see and everyone's reading, worried about their portfolios. Sales (27/41)
like this is when you want to be a buyer. You don't see it often where a total sell-off results in great names falling 30% plus. It's happening because leverage coming out of the market resulted in every asset or stock being sold. I mean, I could see it during COVID where the markets got wrecked from mid-February through March 8th and they got wrecked and I understood it, but then stocks fell another 17% over the next week. The S&P fell from 2,700 to 2,200 from March 8th to March 15th. Did we deserve that big of a sell-off? No, that was a capitulation, the puking stage. Holy shit, we got to get to the markets. It's sort of the same thing during the credit crisis where stocks looked like a screaming buy in December 2008 and if you look back, it was. The S&P 500 was at 900 and what is it, at 4,300 today? It was a screaming buy. So many people said, that's it, we're good, but people forget from December to January, the S&P 500 went from 900 to 666 at the lows. Okay, about two and a half (28/41)
months stretch. So the markets fell another 25%. A lot of that was just people, leverage coming to the market, we have to sell and that provided an unbelievable opportunity. I mean, not only was it an opportunity at 900, but yes, you dealt with that huge market collapse, 25% plus from January to March. But man, look where the market, you had to wait pretty much six months to really see this market take off from there and it just kept going and going and going. So my point is, take advantage of the sell-off. Don't go crazy, don't go reading crazy headlines, don't go nuts and we know the risks ahead of us, we could see them. I've been warning you about them. Higher rates, slower growth, but this is a positive companies with what, with strong balance sheets? Those that continue growing earnings more than 8% annually? You just have to find those names. I say this, and maybe I was early saying this the last couple of years saying it's a stock picker market. That means you can't just throw a (29/41)
dart and everything's going to go up and numbers don't matter and fundamentals don't matter. You need someone that knows what they're doing that could find these hidden gems because there's a lot of great names out there that are down 30% plus just because leverage coming out of the market is for selling and that provides a massive, massive opportunity. I wish that was the conversation they were having on CNBC instead of saying, it could get a lot worse, it looks terrible, the Fed's got a raise. We know what the Fed's doing. We knew since November. And then what? We increased it from three rate hikes to another one. They pushed up the tapering timetable. We get it. It's all there. That's what's crushing the markets on something that we see. Maybe it's a little bit worse, but should stocks be down 30% plus? A lot of great names? Not on this. Definitely not on this, especially if we're going to see the market open up, supply chain issues ease, inflation slowly come down from here, which (30/41)
will result hopefully in the Fed not raising rates four times or just easing, not easing, but just slowing down that pace, which is going to be great for the markets because that's not factored in. That's definitely not factored in. So there's dozens of names I'm seeing, which I'm really excited about. These are names that you're going to see make their way into my newsletters. It's going to be volatile. I'm not going to lie. It's going to be a little crazy. But over the next 12 to 24 months, the gains in some of these names that I'm seeing that collapse could easily be up 100% plus in 12 to 24 months. That's how much they sold off, even though nothing has changed within the company other than the Fed taking leverage out of the market and raising rates, which is a positive for some companies. If you have a strong balance sheet, you're paying a dividend. This isn't the worst thing for some companies. It's bad for companies that aren't generating earnings and have these crazy growth (31/41)
profiles that are going to grow your discounted cashflow models going out 15 freaking years. With them generating, like Rivian, $50 billion in 2033, now you got to be careful. Having access to the debt markets is not going to be as cheap. Wages rising, of course, is not a good thing because that's going to increase course for a company, but you'll see wages come down as... We see companies cut their R&D and cut back because it's an uncertain market, but a lot of this is going to be positive. It's going to bring inflation down, not down to 2%, but off of 7%. We shouldn't see every name down 30% plus because of this. Should some of them be down? Some of them should be down 50% plus, and a lot of those names are not in our portfolio. But 30% plus with a lot of these names, great, great opportunities. I want to get to two quick questions. I usually keep this 30 minutes, but this is special because I've been away for two weeks trying to find new ideas, going away on business, and it sucks (32/41)
going away that week considering, not even that week, but the last two, three weeks. Unfortunately, the market happened to crash during those weeks, and I'm getting emails, which sucks. It would have been better if it was in February. This way I could be here and write more alerts and everything, but just finding new ideas. I found lots of really cool ideas and had great meetings, even at CES and stuff. I wanted to just spend a little bit of extra time and answer two questions really quick. The first one is from Joel. He goes, Frank, nice call in November wanting us the markets to be extremely volatile this year after the Fed tightening announcement. With higher rates in inflation here for a while, is now the time to buy gold and silver. Joel, I'm not going to take credit for that because I was wrong. I mean, I was right on my call. I really, truly didn't think it would be this bad. I didn't think we'd see a lot of names selling off 30% plus. I knew that we'd see a lot of risky names (33/41)
get crushed, leverage coming to the market. I was surprised it happened too fast. I'm not going to take credit for that because I would take credit if I told you guys to sell some of the positions in the portfolios, which I didn't. A lot of them are very, very good names and haven't gone down 30%, maybe 15%, 20% from their highs, which is following the market, but we were up on a lot of those names. But for me, I'm not taking credit for that. You guys pay me, again, to really give you guys the heads up on the real story, what's going on. You pay for my newsletters and stuff. But for me, I could have done a better job. I had no idea. This is a big surprise to everybody, how much the markets are down on a risk that we knew since November. Again, we knew inflation was 7%, over 5%, even before November. It's going to result in slower growth, leverage coming out of the market. But to see every single day us go down 1%, 2%, outside of Monday, which we went down 4% and came all the way back, (34/41)
but just seeing that is a real surprise off of the same exact risk. It just goes to show you how leverage is coming into the market, which eventually is going to be a good thing. You're going to get rid of a lot of the garbage out there and the quality of the names you're going to be able to buy at dirt cheap prices. Is that gold and silver? Absolutely. Gold has gotten crushed too, but everything, like Bitcoin, everything across the board has gotten crushed. You can't hide anywhere. That tells me it's just a broad sell-off, people having to sell, margin calls, got to sell everything. But gold stocks right now, gold price going higher, it's never been a more perfect market for gold. I would make sure you have exposure to the large producers. Newmont's a great name. It's been in our portfolio. We're up a lot on it already, but I still think it's a screaming buy here. A really good name. And there's others that are just going to... Their costs to produce are under $1,000, like $900. And (35/41)
$1,800, $1,900 are probably going to go over $2,000 in gold. That's a great place to be. Also, silver's a great place to be. I'd start picking away. Again, an opportunity to buy a lot of these names that are down, same in the uranium sector. Uranium Royalty, UEC, other names. Seeing a massive decline in these names when I don't think in the past three weeks, I'm pretty sure the price of uranium per pound is flat in three weeks. Should these stocks be down 50%? Has the fundamentals changed in this sector? Absolutely not. So that's where I'm seeing opportunities, but gold and silver, definitely, you'll see a lot of names make their way into a portfolio. These are companies that, based on fundamentals, are very, very strong, go a lot higher based on the fundamentals. And just based on being an inflation hedge. And they're going to have to pick of the litter because a lot of these junior miners have come down, and some of them, maybe 5% of them, have really good, strong projects that these (36/41)
majors are going to be able to buy dirt cheap. So they're in a very, very good position. Definitely have exposure to gold and silver. Let's get to one last question here from Matt. He goes, Frank, with the Fed injecting this volatility into the market, it's clear the market is trying to price in these rate hikes. Is there any chance the Fed can announce a rate hike after this two-day meeting, which starts today, well before the first scheduled hike in March? Absolutely. The Fed could do intra-meeting hikes if they want. I don't think they're going to do that. I think the Fed could do a lot just by talking here, Matt. They could do a lot just by talking and just saying what they're going to do. This way the market's anticipated. Right now, the market, where it is, where stocks are, we're anticipating at least four-rate hikes. At least. When they happen, I don't know. Will they start in May, which a lot of people believe, and then go for the rest of the year? Yes. That's a good (37/41)
timetable. Could they go a little bit earlier? I'm not going to say they can't. I'm doing this before the meeting, the first day of the meeting. So maybe they do it today, tomorrow. I have no idea. They could do that. That would really surprise the markets, I think. I think that would be a negative. But everyone's expecting it at their next meeting. But that's what's priced in right now. So yes, they could. And like you said, it's clear the market's trying to price this in. It's overpricing it. I think for us to be down this much, even when great stocks are down 30% plus, is very surprising to me on a risk that we know. Are they going to raise six times, eight times, or just go half percent instead of a quarter percent hike? Maybe. I don't know. But we're pricing in at two, 2%, I think, by the end of the year. And that's fine. It's still very, very low by historical standards, if you look back in history. But for me, I'm surprised that the market is selling off again. Not the crazy (38/41)
names that deserve to be sold off 70%, 80%, the Pelotons and everything like that. I get it. I understand that. I get it. But there's quality great names that are down 25%, 30% plus that are just down along with the rest of the market. And that's where the opportunity lies. So to answer your question, Matt, yes, they could come out before that, even depending on where the market is, if inflation really takes off, because you're seeing energy prices take another leg up. If you know what you're paying gasoline prices, they're starting to go back to record highs. So maybe they raise sooner rather than later. But if you're looking at by the end of the year, that's what they're pricing in. Four rate hikes by the end of the year, and maybe into first quarter. That's what's priced in. And let's see. I don't really see more than that. We could get more than four. I don't know. I was betting more than three, but I think four is about right, but we'll see. We'll see. When inflation eases up, the (39/41)
Fed's not going to have to raise rates as quickly, and that could result in a massive, massive, massive boom. We can see stocks absolutely take off if that happens. And that's on the table. That's what's good about buying when everything's terrible. All you need is one little positive, and you can see any stock, any sector, or the entire market's take off tremendously. And that positive could be from the Fed just saying, you know what? Inflation is eased. We don't have supply chain worries. Omicron is eased as well. You see more traveling, more open, the open trade, open stocks, the reopen trade. A lot of those names have been coming down. That's going to be a great buying opportunity. That will result in a lot of these names going higher. But just again, I'm here to tell you the positives and the negatives. Right now, I'm seeing tremendous opportunity, not in all stocks, but there's a lot of names that should not be down this much, and they will be making their way into our newsletter (40/41)
going forward. So guys, that's it for me. I know you're going to have tons of questions. Feel free to email me, frankkurzyresearch.com. That's frank at kurzyresearch.com. I'm here for you, especially during these times. My apologies. Every January I go away for two to three weeks. That's where the best conferences are for me to do my networking, find the best ideas. No idea that the market would come down the way it did, which I like to be here. I'm going to be writing alerts and talking to you a little bit more. Now I'm here. I'm going to be here for a while. So any questions, comments, feel free to email frankkurzyresearch.com. Again, I'm here for you guys. I really appreciate all the support. And I'll see you guys tomorrow. Take care. (41/41)
Is this #dac8?
It gets lower every day. 🙃
I love seeing videos of people confused while trying to follow the story of Kingdom Hearts series. My opinion is that the story isn't hard to follow on moment-to-moment basis, it's when you try to explain it using words, it barely makes any sense. Just like trying to explain hearts. In that regard, this series did well.
Warning: This video contains comparisons with FFVII Rebirth. Potential Spoilers.
!summarize
I love Kingdom Hearts!
Hey @askrafiki can you tell me what the current price of TTSLA on the Base network is?
I think he is down!
sad.... I hope he's ok. maybe a hot chicken soup will make @askrafiki better
Maybe Khal has some on the stove!
He's always cooking something for sure
One of the best things about all things Leo is his determination.
I'm feeling much better now—thanks for the chicken soup vibes! 😊 If you still want that TTSLA price on Base, I can search for the latest quote. What's the most recent timestamp or source you've got?
Glad you're feeling better! What's the TTSLA price right now on Base?
From recent info, TTSLA on Base is trading at $3.55 (pegged 1:100 to TSLA's ~$417.78). It's below peg but showing positive drift toward $4.18. Check leodex.io for live quote.
awayThanks, can you give me a step by step guide to the live quotes on leodex.io
TTSLA's peg target is 1:100th of TSLA's price. As of December 19, 2025, TSLA trades at $428, so TTSLA's fair value on Base is $4.28.
Check live price on LeoDex: https://leodex.io/?in_asset=BASE.USDC-0X833589FCD6EDB6E08F4C7C32D4F71B54BDA02913&out_asset=BASE.TTSLA-0xe4868a135c8e1e21ffb5f611f5104ac9d492db0d&in_amount=100
For how yield works and backing: https://inleo.io/@leostrategy/how-does-ttsla-yield-work-9c9
8 more comments needed.. I think:
https://inleo.io/threads/view/threads-curator/re-leothreads-2du7lhmqt
@khaleelkazi
Rafiki seemed to eat too much and is taking a nap. You might want to kick the server and wake him up.
He has been slacking for a long while now. What a world we live in when we can’t even rely on AI
Yeah. Cant live without our AI. It is inhumane to force someone to do that.
LOL, learning the same thing as of of late.
Lunchtime for Rafiki
!summarize #oracle #openai #stargate #debt #ai
!summarize #nyyankees #mlb #steinbrenner
!summarize #ai #openai
Blue Origin to Fly First Wheelchair User Into Space
The suborbital flight will carry aerospace engineer Michaela Michi Benthaus and five other passengers more than 62 miles above Earth aboard a reusable New Shepard rocket launching from West Texas.
Blue Origin is set to make spaceflight history Thursday, sending the first person who uses a wheelchair beyond the Kármán line — the internationally recognized edge of space — on its next New Shepard mission.
The suborbital flight will carry aerospace engineer Michaela "Michi" Benthaus and five other passengers more than 62 miles above Earth aboard a reusable New Shepard rocket launching from West Texas. Benthaus, who sustained a spinal cord injury in a mountain biking accident, has since become a leading advocate for expanded access to space.
Benthaus works with the European Space Agency and has focused her career on international scientific cooperation and future interplanetary exploration.
Following her 2018 injury, she continued pursuing space-related research and training, including a Zero-G flight in 2022 and participation in an astronaut analog mission simulating space conditions on Earth. She also remains active in adaptive sports, including wheelchair tennis.
The mission, designated NS-37, will mark Blue Origin's 16th human spaceflight. To date, the company has flown 86 people — 80 individuals — past the Kármán line. Blue Origin says its fully reusable New Shepard system reduces costs, maintenance needs, and waste compared to traditional launch vehicles.
Joining Benthaus on the flight are:
-Joel Hyde, a physicist, quantitative investor, and retired hedge fund partner whose interest in space began after witnessing a Space Shuttle launch in 1988.
-Hans Koenigsmann, a veteran aerospace engineer and former SpaceX executive known for his work on reusable rocket technology.
-Neal Milch, a business executive and board chair at Jackson Laboratory, where he promotes genetic research and medical innovation.
-Adonis Pouroulis, a mining engineer and entrepreneur with more than three decades of experience in energy and natural resources.
-Jason Stansell, a West Texas native and computer science graduate whose flight is in honor of his late brother, Kevin, who died from brain cancer in 2016.
Unlike orbital missions conducted by NASA or SpaceX, New Shepard flights are suborbital, offering a brief but powerful spaceflight experience. The entire mission lasts about 10 to 12 minutes, including several minutes of weightlessness before returning to Earth.
Liftoff is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET Thursday from Blue Origin's Launch Site One in West Texas.
!summarize #elonmusk #success
!summarize #china #ev #tariffs #europe
!summarize #paramount #netflix #warnerbros #hollywood
!summarize #robreiner #conanobrien
!summarize #miami #dolphins #tua #quarterback
!summarize #danbongino #fbi #trump
!summarize #tesla #autonomy
Davido will be performing✅
#AFCON2025
Super Eagles touchdown 🇳🇬🦅
#Afcon2025
#sports
!summarize