Since it is Friday, let's dream a little....
Or, will it be a nightmare?
Over the last few weeks various events and comments have returned a thought to my mind, as people put their momentary needs well above their future momentary needs. Obviously, we have to make sure our needs are met in the present, but not considering what we may face in the future, virtually guarantees that we are going to struggle, once we get there.
It is no secret that I am pretty bullish on the future of Hive and have been for years now. Yet, I still can remain objective enough that there are no guarantees in what that future holds. Considering and planning for the future are always a speculative tasks, meaning that with the tools and insight we have available to us at the time, we are predicting what could happen, whether we are right or wrong.
Investing of course is backing our prediction and putting resources behind our conclusions with the aim to grow those resources in some way. It is easy to visualize the monetary growth of an investment, but the "capital" can also be things like, time, energy, attention, effort, or skillset. And the ROI might not come in the same form as the capital investment.
For instance, on Hive we are able to invest our time and skills for HIVE. We can write and comment and attract votes that provide us with tokens that we can then use in various ways to attract more tokens, including fiat tokens.
Never forget: Money as we know it, is just another token.
While the investment process is simple, there are a lot of considerations and negotiations that need to take place. And we need to ask ourselves various questions, like whether we are willing to invest into that future, or not. Or if we are willing to create to satisfy an audience, or not.
All of this investment takes time and has an opportunity cost, so we have to decide if it is for us, which means evaluating if we believe that the possible ROI is worth our resources. For many, it might not be, as for instance, they might value their current time more highly than their future time. And it is true, because we don't know what will happen tomorrow, for we might be hit by the proverbial bus and everything we were planning, was for nought.
How many people do you know who have been hit by a bus?
So, part of the prediction is working out the likelihood of some event happening over another event. For instance, the chance of being hit (unintentionally) by a bus tomorrow. Looking into the future, we also have to consider the probabilities. For example, the chances of needing money to buy food, clothing, paying for accommodation and do something that we might want to do for others, or to entertainment ourselves.
What do you predict as your future needs?
This is not just money and things, but it is also free time and relationships. But, if we aren't considering the future resources we need in order to have these things, when we get there, we are unlikely to have them available. And then, what do we predict our feelings to be, when we are potentially unsatisfied with where we are in life?
For instance, there are people who have been on Hive for many years now and I wonder how they would feel if the token price was to suddenly jump. The future is uncertain, but this uncertainty doesn't always mean that terrible things happen. What if for instance, there was some breakthrough or for some weird reason, a massive demand for Hive started and the token shifted to 10 dollars each?
Note: I am not predicting this in the short term.
How would you feel?
- Would you consider the time and energy you have put in well spent?
- Would you be disappointed at what you have accomplished?
For me, future feelings are interesting things to consider, because making the prediction will help me decide what I am going to be spending my time and energy on right now. Yes, it would be fantastic for me if HIVE went to $10, but I feel good about what I am doing to earn it at 27 cents also. I feel good investing into it, even though I know that there is loss potential. I feel good that I can spend my time writing about things that are important to me, talking with people whom with I enjoy talking, and be part of a community and tech that is a little different, that is on the cusp of something better.
The current moment feels good.
Does yours?
But, there is always an opportunity cost with every resource allocation, so it could be that I might feel better doing something else instead. But, doing one of those other things might come at the expense of a future position.
There is always a tradeoff.
And, this is what happens constantly in the moment. We are continually trading all of the options we have, for the one we choose to do. And, because we choose to do it, we assume that it is what has the most value to us, but we don't consider what else we could have done with the same time, or if doing something else in the moment, would bring a greater level of enjoyment, contentment, or satisfaction.
What has come up in the last weeks is how many people seem to think that planning for the future is a compromise on experience now. But, it isn't like that at all. If anything, it is an enhancement of the current moment, because it gives purpose to what is being done, making it more meaningful and therefore, valuable. It might be sentimental, but that is all experience really is.
For me, I believe that the ability to consider our future position is one of the superpowers of being human and is part of what allows us to grow as a species and as individuals. It makes us predictive of the environment, not reactive to it. And since the probability is that we will see tomorrow, we should probably think about what we might want to do with our lives and what that takes, so we don't feel like intentionally stepping in front of a bus.
$10 dollar HIVE.
What a nightmare.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha
If Hive went to $10, if I was being truthful, probably not. I would be kicking mysefl for not spending more time and investing more of my own fiat into it.
No, because that is not my primary reason for blogging. I am blogging more as more of a therapy. And with the progress of that I am not disappointed at all.
Yes, I think the current moment does feel good. I am already medically retired, but due to some good planning earlier in my life and lots of luck, I am in a position to have a little bit to turn around and reinvest in various assets each month.
Funny, isn't it? However slim the chance of that outcome, if it happens, many will have regrets.
So, the present moment has value and, it happens to possibly bring future moment value too.
This is great, isn't it? You get to do some of what you want, because of a little planning and luck in the past. Many seem just to cross fingers and hope.
I have always been unable to do that. It makes me too anxious to not have a half ass plan at the very least. Not sure how others are able to do that without all the anxiety attached.
I think it is because of their assumptions and expectations that the future cost won't be too high.
It would be easier to just drop the stuff that isn't used daily. Most days, the probability of the average soldier being shot is relatively low, right? So why take a helmet and vests?
We are made to plan, because we are made to mitigate risks. But it isn't always an option just to stay home.
This might not be the best comparison, given the sensitivity of the subject, but I kind of feel like Hive (or crypto for that matter) is a bit similar to religion in some respects. Like you spend all of your life believing in something with all your heart, having moments of doubt and uncertainty along the way. You wonder if you are doing all of this for nothing, if it is even going to matter when it all comes down to it. Even if you don't have or believe in religion, the parallels are still there. That's how I see it anyway.
I reckon you are right. Religion is declining, but the human experience needs some part of the fulfilment the mechanism brings. This is why the "new religions" are born through the internet. All kinds of ridiculous social movements and spending inordinate amounts of time and things that don't really matter. Even sports stats and celebrity life watching has elements of it.
Yeah for sure. I just see myself thinking if Hive were to go to zero, did I do all of this for nothing? Did I just waste my life on something? I am sure people feel that way about their faith too. What if I am wasting my time? Then again, what if it was right all along? Do you want to take that chance?
And this is where the prediction comes in regarding the value of time spent now and the time experienced later.
Oh my god, $10 for 1 HIVE! I would be very unhappy with this price. After all, I would sell all my HIVEs for 1-2 $ :)
How would you feel if you sold it all for 2, and then a month later it was at 10? :D
At first, I would be very good. I would count daily my income in HBD. But in a month I would feel like the last fool in the world and would wait again for the price of $ 1 in order to buy HIVE again.
Hive to $10? Sheesh! How many new Hive-illionaires will we have then? 🤔
And a part of me really believes that we can hit $10, some day, but will it be during this bull run? I doubt it. But half of that? $5 this bull run? HELL YEAH! It's possible.
There are 173 accounts that have at least 100K HIVE power.
Yeah, this is possible :)
Damn! Now the question is, will they hold it all or sell some? It's also about timing too, it's tough selling at the top.
OH YEAHHH!
I feel when we get the payout at this point, it's better to take the HBD out. And you can keep the account in HP power up mode,no need to take that out. But no need to constantly keep HBD in the account either, because future is uncertain each day decentralized things become centralized it's hard to rely on HODL speculation. It's better to sell while the chance is there. Once centralization is on hold it's better to sell before the value of token goes super low. Thats how I feel.
So keeping the liquid cash is necessary instead of liquid assets online.
I use the HBD to buy more HP :)
But, if HIVE was at 10, I would take the HBD out, rather than buy HIVE.
I think that good feeling is in the power of a person to keep doing something fun, and you seem to really enjoy being involved here. You have birthed and posted quality writing, and it wouldn't have been born if there wasn't a good feeling when doing it. Even bad feelings should be something good to write about.
As for the future, let time tell. But doing something well today is a step towards preparing for a good future.
I really agree with that expression; it is part of making preparations to have a beautiful dream come true.
It hurts more to do nothing, but the price of Hive will skyrocket one day, and we are not dreaming when that time comes.
Predictive is much better than reactive. That is a very good personality.
Thank you for sharing such a great article.
Precisely. There is never a bad time to write.
I see a lot of reactive people these days, constantly feeling like they have no power for changing their own lives, other than trying to force others to change.
I have those thoughts from time to time too. Whether I'd be better of grinding leetcode and trying to get into FAANG / MANGA instead of working freelance. But the flexibility is really nice and the ability to choose the projects and people I work with is valuable to me.
Stranger things have happened lol.
Flexibility is definitely a cost. A lot of people don't seem to understand the cost of having free time these days.
Much stranger!
Just on one day, our life might be upside and down, either financially or health-wise. Therefore, I always try quarantee my future, particularly financially. I can say that I have grown up with this mind-set. However, I am not sure if it is right, I may miss life of today.
Do you feel you are missing out on life today? Or, if the future is far harder because of a lack of planning, will you feel like you are missing out on life then?
I think due to focusing on the future, we miss out on today. Waiting for retirement to do something is a good example.
I don't know if it is a focus on the future though.
For instance, football training is for the purpose of having the skills, stamina and understanding to play well on game day. It is "planning" for the future. However, those activities are done in the present and they can be enjoyable because they have a reason to be performed. Without a plan for the future, no activity is any more valuable than any other activity. Having a coffee with friends, learning math, or banging the head against a wall are all the same.
At least many people do so here. They just save money as much as they can and delay things in life. It is not certain that we will live till 60s or later.
Yes, that is action without purpose. They don't actually think about game day, they just keep on training.
That little tidbit right there.
Occasionally, something clever falls out.
That's not shocking to me. I saw it coming.
There is definitely some complex theory crafting at work when you have to account for ROI of immediate enjoyment versus the delayed gratification based on the probability of surviving long enough to make it to said delayed gratification. So far, my data heavily skews towards there not being as much time in the future so I'm likely overvaluing the present. Time will tell...
We all over value the present, but what we value doing might change. Some people think that the most valuable thing they can do with their time, is watch the Kardashians.
There will always be that dilemma that if things dont work out in hindsight you’d think you might have wasted time and commitment. On the other hand if things pumped up then you would say to yourself you’ve made the right investment decisions. For me, I try to always focus on the long term. Helps me disregard current events and block out all unnecessary noises. Sure sometimes hearing of unattractive news gets me at times but I believe in the process.
Win or lose, it is how the game is played, right? Long term is the best way to play though, as it means that the ups and down are far smoother.
True. If youre in the long term you can smooth out all the upd and downs.
Hmm. If Hive went to $10 I'd feel fantastic and I'd probably start taking some out, or at least moving it to a stable coin to secure the gains, but I'd still be here pumping out my daily posts. I enjoy the writing process. So if Hive stays at a quarter for the next 10 years, or if it gets up to $10, I'd still be here.
That's like the lottery question. If you won the lottery jackpot, would you quit your job? Most people would say yes, and I'm sure that is part of the reason most lottery winners end up broke within a few years. I would, boringly enough, stick the winnings in some good investments (I'd probably hired a good accountant to do this for me) and continue to work and write on Hive as if nothing had happened.
In other words, the security of knowing I don't need to worry about money anymore would be beyond wonderful, but that wouldn't stop me from enjoying what I do now.
That would be the time, right? :D The worry is, how much to sell, how much to keep - what if it goes to 20...
I am with you on the lottery. Unless it was an obscene amount, I would likely just keep doing what I do - investing it away.
This.
If Hive gets to $10, I'd be very happy even though I have not acquired so many Hive.
It will be a good feeling!
It would be pretty insane. 5B market cap.
One thing I am so sure about this life is the fact that one's life can change between a blink of an eye
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It's hard to really predict where prices will go but I also believe in Hive. I have learned a lot here when I changed from being a consumer into more of a content creator as well. So I just look forward to where Hive goes and I am having fun with Hive.
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I don't know if this greed or being optimistic but I would probably still keep most of my hive even at that price.
An esoteric tradition says: "Nephews are Grandparents and Grandparents were nephews". There are many recurrences in our genealogical tree and sometimes we are given the chance to make it evolve and break chains. It's a matter of awareness and courage.
We can see these recurrences in work situations, relationships, friendships, money and much more. It's funny to watch them (trying to avoid judgement) and see where our life is going
Just ask yourself this question:
¿Is infinity something endless or something that repeats itself over and over again?
¿Any clearer clue now about the future?