I do enjoy seeing HIVE move up in price - it also jumped about 80 positions on the movement to be currently ranked at #158. I don't know if it has to do with the win as the most innovative crypto product award, but regardless, it is all good news. The best part is seeing the excitement on chain, where there is a kind of electricity coursing through the community. Price is a terrible indicator of how well a project is performing or growing, but people definitely react to it. Even after seeing this several times in the past, it is always a good feeling.
Just two days ago I wrote a post about this time of year back in 2017 and at how fast price can move, and that was when HIVE was around 35 cents. It hit 76 cents today, a gain of about 110% since. Not bad, but it is just the beginning I believe, as the next couple months will see it cross into dollar+ territory and perhaps up to a couple. From there, 10x by the end of the year?
You can quote me on that.
Though, I am not good at predicting price.
I don't think anyone really is, but with so many predictions getting thrown around, someone is bound to be right, it may as well be me. That sounds like I am entering the lottery, hoping to win- Kind of expecting to win.
I spend a lot of time trying to convince myself out of crypto, where I look at the lack of use case, the prevalence of scam, the position of the media, the pushback from government and all the FUD I can think of, yet, I always end up in the same position. This is going to stick. The more I try to convince myself otherwise, the greater my belief that crypto is going to have a massive impact on the world in ways that I can't imagine. I might not be very imaginative, but I also figure that if I can't imagine all the ways, those who are adamant that the current economy is salvageable, definitely can't. Most don't even seem to see it coming, like a sledgehammer swung through the night air.
The higher price goes, the more attractive HIVE becomes to stake, as it is able to draw from the pool and there is a lot of HIVE liquid currently, about two-thirds. If that starts to get powered up, it is going to get cozy in the pool and it is also going to get a little drafty on the exchanges. A lot of people vying for attention, not a lot of attention out there to be bought. This makes the competition for the pool quite a lot harder, but it also forces for a greater distribution, as with more voters, there comes more potential for vote diversity. The higher the price goes, the more value there is to spread and many of the posts won't be considered worth putting thousands of dollars on, so curation as a job will be common.
There will be problems too of course, like selfvoting and secret alts, but that is what downvotes are for. There will be plenty of spam also, but I think that will either be filtered out by some frontends, or seen as part of the transaction volume that will just get ignored by any serious users.
Price is pretty meaningless in many respects, but it does fundamentally affect the culture of the community, where people consider their vote weightings differently and might even think about whether a post is "worth it" or not. People also get weird and their expectations and entitlements grow astronomically, as if they are owned something, regardless of how they have acted in the past or what they put forward in the present. The entire ecosystem and gamification of Hive changes when the value of the pool increases drastically. The pool was worth around 180K dollars a couple months ago and currently (with blockchain price at 45 cents) it is 800K and if it stays around 60 cents, it will hit a million, 6 dollars it will be ten million or about 125 million dollars in rewards a year for Hive users.
It'd be interesting if the ecosystem could grow to the point that was the floor price one day, because if it did, the amount of value it is paying out to users will likely rival YouTube, and it will be a community that decides who gets what. I wonder what the percentage YouTube takes to offer the infrastructure is in comparison to what it pays its content creators. I suspect, the creators don't get much - the consumers of course get nothing. If we can do much the same across multiple media and experiences, the cost of witnesses will be considered cheap. Though I believe that as the price increases, more witnesses should be brought into the share of tokens, even if the consensus witnesses remain at 20.
Anyway - while I don't put faith in price as an indicator of project, it is undeniable that it affects the way people act on Hive, as it changes the incentive structure to take part. Even while the same amounts of Hive might be distributed, when a dollar that wasn't worth it becomes 10 dollars that is, people feel differently, post differently, behave differently. The changing dynamic will be great for some, while potentially making others feel lost at sea and disconnected. It is up to each of us to take responsibility for our own actions though and it is up to each of us to live with the consequences of them.
This is the thing with a self-governing community with a self-generated economy - the way it functions represents us, including the dysfunctions. There are always problems to face and as long as we keep building solutions, we will evolve to meet the changing needs of the world.
It all might even be "worth it" one day.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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And meanwhile there's me and "oh this seems to have happened again cool" [carries on like nothing is happening because is a loser XD]
On your mental exercise of trying to convince yourself out of crypto, sure there's no confirmation bias/sunk cost fallacy/that kinda thing going on? :D
How beautiful to see HIVE grow so much. That's really good news 👏👏
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Have you been keeping an eye on it in the markets, or just seeing all of the posts on chain? :)
So far I have only seen the great variety of posts in the community. I think for tomorrow I will upload analysis about Hive and Uniswap 📈💪
@tipu curate :)
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 0/22) Liquid rewards.
Thank you!
Although I would not like to see things move up quickly in terms of price (based on personal reasons), it is still a win if hive moons. I will certainly be in a better position financially.
Secondly, I think things are different from the last time hive's sister chain mooned. I think the focus is moving away from hive to the dapps (that might change with some of the developments I am hearing about like defi coming to give). Everything is built on hive so it is not much of a threat. But I would like to see how things play out if hive hits let's say...$5
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The secondary tokens like LEO are a net gain for the community, as this is a network that requires many such communities. Things are different, but people haven't changed that much, the behavior is still predictable for the most part, it is just that the focus of attention will be split more.
When Hive hits five, I hope there are a lot of strong hands that will enjoy it when it hits ten and 20 too.
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If this ever happens ($20 hive) I will be financially stable without even having to sell most of the hive I own. There might not even be any reason to sell at that point because there will be tons of ways to leverage my stake.
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The leverage of stake is hopefully going to be highly attractive
Nice ,, :)
Once you get in, you can't get out. This is the crazy world of crypto
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Your post is reblogged and upvoted by me. It is a good post. Thank you @tarazkp
I like that I still have some price room for my voting style, I do still wonder at what price I will need to, if ever, lower my vote percentage. I has been a long time since I was able to give a nickle vote and that only at full power, now I find I can give a quarter value vote at full power, so I do like that I can actually start giving almost meaningful votes out to people and to content I like.
I do expect the entitlement mindset to start getting active again with post and schemes and plans to tell people how to vote, how much to vote, and who to vote for, as the price continues to increase.
!ENGAGE 20
ENGAGEtokens.Very good analogy with YouTube. I have a YouTube channel and here are my stats of last 7 days:
18.46 USD revenue from YouTube in the past 7 days from 3.3k views.
And here are my upcoming HIVE rewards for the next 7 days:
Clearly much more than YouTube and I of course didn't get 3.3k views on my posts on Hive. Add to this rewards from second layer tokenised communities and the picture is quite bright for Hive here.
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I think the past couple of years are definitely a testament to your stance that price is not a good indicator of how good a crypto project is. Look at all of the development that has happened on Hive all through the bear market and yet the price stayed down in the dumps. It is nice to see all of that hard work finally reflected in the price metric.
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I think that the price is an excellent indicator of activity, which will sharply revolve around the project, against the background of the motivation to earn more using price increases.
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