Pick any two.
You know the triangle. You can have it Cheap and Fast, but it won't be Quality. Fast and Quality, but it won't be Cheap. Cheap and Quality, but it won't be Fast. And I think about this in terms of production in America, which has steadily moved into the far more lucrative service business instead. But now that they want to build production in the US again to create jobs and possibly for strategic purposes, I wonder who the market will be.
I was thinking about this as China has reportedly halted orders from Boeing, which is already struggling due to all the quality issues they have. two thirds of the planes they make go overseas out of the US, and China is the largest buyer, expected to buy almost 9000 planes in the next twenty years. Perhaps Airbus in Europe will have to build another factory.
Yet, this indicates an issue for US manufacturing hopes, because they are still going to have to compete internationally, because the US market, as sizeable as it is, isn't large enough to absorb all of the production - especially given the ruthless profit chasing of US investors. What are they going to compete on in a global market? Price, Quality, or Speed of delivery?
Price is going to be very hard to match if tariffs make all the necessary components from outside the US more expensive. And then there is the cost of labour, which is likely to go up if illegal immigrants are kicked out of the country - which affects many, many aspects of American life. Will an American worker be on a production line, mowing the lawn or taking care of some rich person's child? The only way to keep prices down, would be to source many components internationally, and crush salaries of people. Or use AI and robots.
Which doesn't help the average person.
Well then, they can of course compete on quality, because with all the smart people in the US and skilled workers, they should be able to make a far superior product than other countries. However, what is the cost of getting quality manufacturing in the US? Is it possible to really make something that is of good enough quality that still isn't prohibitive in price? Is it possible to find enough skilled people willing to work like they do in the countries where they are building iPhones? Is the quality of Boeing the shining example? Tesla?
That leaves speed, and this is another area that the US should have down pat - after all, they have the need for speed, and the consumer wants everything same day delivery, no matter what it is, or where they live. The US is a shining example of the "on-demand" economy and is home to many of the services that provide it. However, production is a bit different than pushing out updates to an app. Are Americans willing to work like they do in the "production countries" to be able to compete on the global market?
And I think that this is something a lot of people in the US haven't really considered with all of the changes that are going on, as they celebrate the "wins" - what does all of this do to the culture people are accustomed to? What happens if the US moves back into production, will the knowledge worker roles in services still be able to meet global standards? What happens if there isn't cheap labour willing to look after children so that parents can be professionals? What happens when all the things that people enjoy, become prohibitively expensive due to import taxes, and the local products are prohibitively expensive because the cost of production locally is so high?
Is the average American better off?
It is hard to say at this point, because yes, the global and local economies need to change, and change always brings changes that might not have been predicted prior, or over or under estimated earlier. What is predictable though is that people don't like change, but accept it when there are personal benefits. When the changes cause a personal cost though, we like it much less.
How will people respond if they lose enjoyed luxuries?
In today's on-demand culture and global economy where it is possible to get almost anything, how will people feel when they are forced into a situation where they just have to make do with what they are able to get, due to the decisions of the government. The billionaires at the top will be able to afford whatever they like, whilst everyone else is limited by the decisions the billionaires made.
It sounds a bit like Communist Russia or North Korea, doesn't it?
And remember, Trump looks up to the dictators. The people who have controlled people to empower themselves. He sees himself as a supreme leader of the people, chosen to rule over the masses as he sees fit. Yet, what happens when a culture that has made "freedom" the symbol of the country, gets ruled over to their detriment and loss of opportunity?
The cost of "making America great" might be everything that made America great.
Which two does America pick?
Taraz
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You mean this thing :)
I say you are making a fundamental mistake. You are thinking people or policy makers (!) at the Trump Administration can think logically. You can not think that way. Therefore you can't question their action. They are in the path of chaos and self destruction. It needs to play out however long it takes, and then we will pick up the pieces and re-build, whatever that is left in the world anyways!
In the meantime, play violine like Nero, as Rome burns!
I am not sure you are correct about Trump Administration not thinking logically. I think they have their own motives which is to make as much money as they can for themselves personally. If you are an administration insider and know the self destructive actions that will be taken ahead of time you can definitely profit from that knowledge, especially now that FTC and other government watchdogs were effectively taken offline.
Yes, I have to agree with you on that.
But, there must be some level of their supporter base that has some logical thoughts occasionally. Right? Can't they see what is happening?
Trump supporter base:
Please tell me why any of these 'groups' will support what you are suggesting?
The nationalists like to pretend they support free markets, but fail to understand two key details:
International trade is not fundamentally different from any other form of regional specialization.
You can't demand more US manufacturing until you remove barriers to US entrepreneurial activity.
Trump obsessed with trade deficit, but it's one of the few things allowing spendthrift US administrations to inflate the money supply as much as it does. Overseas demand for dollars soaks up some of that excess.
Trump is not really addressing the spending deficit, reducing regulatory burdens on small businesses, or fighting to curb the insane intellectual property laws which allow megacorporations to more innovation with legal expenses.
The fiscal mess in the US has been accumulating for over a century, and few in Trump's circle have the inclination or incentive to address those root problems. Instead, they add new regulatory burdens on the form of tariffs without any consideration for US manufacturing needed to replace imported goods. Want to bet their answer will be subsidies at taxpayer expense? Meanwhile, megacorporations will likely see increased profits as any rising prices can be hand-waved away as "tariffs caused it!"
Oh, yeah, and Trump started the COVID lockdowns that killed small businesses starting 5 years ago.
Relevant podcast on the twin deficits, fiscal policy, inflation, debt, etc. https://mises.org/podcasts/minor-issues/twin-deficits
I don't know about the fiscal mess brewing over a century, but certainly since the end of WWII.
Before that, I could see that Bretton Woods made an error in pegging the dollar to a fixed price of gold, knowing they would inflate the dollar.
Woodrow Wilson still beats the print of the blame for creating the Federal Reserve system and the income tax. After WW1, the Roaring 20s seemes like a success, but it built a bubble that burst into the Great Depression.
Then FDR stole gold from the people and subsequently devalued the dollar in gold terms. People believe WW2 somehow fixed that, but in real terms, we didn't return to prosperity until after the war when the economy finally started producing for the benefit of the consumer.
Inflation was kept somewhat in check, but government grows like a cancer, and by 1965, almost all silver had to be removed from coins. That was a warning the dollar had been destroyed already behind the scenes. And then finally Nixon closed gold redemption for overseas holders of gold. The petrodollar was eventually a stopgap, but almost all restraint on inflation was gone.
They've been building a new bubble for 60 years, and trying to patch every correction along the way with more stimulus and more inflation. It can't last.
This is something I don't understand. There should be a trade deficit with some countries, because they are selling something the US needs, but they don't need that much from the US. The trade deficit conversation makes no sense. It is like me going to the shop and buying bread and milk, and then demanding that the shop buys something from me for equal value.
And this deficit is what made America the power it is today, by creating itself as the largest single market. It did it on debt to gain power, but the cycle is very painful to reverse, because everyone is accustomed to consuming so much more than they need.
Bailouts catalysed Bitcoin -perhaps the next round will see it used properly.
The trade deficit didn't exist as a pervasive thing until the 1970s, coincidentally the same time the US completely abandoned all pretense of adhering to the Bretton Woods system and Nixon closed the gold window. The US was an industrial powerhouse with plenty of extorts and trade without a deficit, and there was growing prosperity for all economic classes with less wealth concentration. Trade deficits and spending deficits are not essential to prosperity at all.
Could you send this to the Trump administration? You have obviously put far more thought into this than they have!
Apparently, that is not hard!
Well according to research by the US Chamber of Commerce, American workers have very little interest in manufacturing jobs. As of January 2024 there were 644k open job vacancies in manufacturing in the US despite the fact that the same manufacturing industries suffered 1.4 million job losses during Covid.
At least in recent times, it’s not globalisation that has impacted US manufacturing it’s the ’Great Resignation’ that has occurred over the past 3 years which has seen a large number of employees leave ‘on-site’ roles, including those in manufacturing, in favour of positions that offer greater flexibility and a hybrid work environment.
Can the US work force hit 2 out of 3 within the triangle? I reckon they’d be lucky to deliver on 1!
Ever thought who is actually able to resign? I am guessing that there is a certain layer of privilege involved for a high percentage of them. Eventually, inherited wealth runs out, by passing into the hands of those willing to capture it.
I haven't seen them do it in my lifetime.
The numbers alone demonstrate that it was a cross section of American society not just the privileged.
Approximately 50mil Americans every year in 2021, 2022 and 2023 voluntarily left their jobs. That’s about 1 in 4 workers per annum.
The vast majority also returned to work so it’s not people being in a financially sound position to give up employment entirely. It’s more a case of the American worker enjoying a job market which has options and then choosing not to enter the manufacturing industry.
Okay. It is interesting to see what kinds of jobs they moved into, and whether it was a smart move given what is coming with AI now.
Yes and I agree with your sentiments that most people don't deal well with change.
The real change that AI will bring will be to another age old triangle - the relationship between state, capital and labour. Unfortunately, if the free people of the world keep electing the likes of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, etc then we've got absolutely no chance of reimagining that relationship for the betterment of mankind.
I think the elections are rigged - in the sense that there are no good options that will lead to betterment for society or humanity. If we want a better world, we need to work for it, not vote for it.
I'll just be happy when this whole period in our history is finished. I'm ready to get back to living.
Yes.
It has made me revaluate a few things though. Mostly - people are even dumber than I thought! ;D
I am finding that out more and more every day!
That is the point. I think they will meet the workforce requirement by robots and AI, and not only for this period, but for the future.
And let the average person fend for themselves, fighting for scraps in the gutter.
Perhaps I misunderstood your third paragraph. If the US is importing less, then there is more market for domestic products. We don't necessarily have to produce excess products for export. We only have to produce enough for domestic consumption.
I've been thinking about this lately. When we discuss production, we often think of corporate scale facilities with machinery and massive production capacity. But I was thinking more along the lines of owning chickens (an analogy). If you have chickens, you don't have to feed them much, maybe just supplement their diets. For the most part they scratch around for bugs and seeds. And they lay eggs which could be enough for your family, maybe for your neighbors and friends. You can have chicken soup from time to time. When things go industrial, it's a different game because you have a limit on how much land the chickens have to roam, so now you have to feed them and build big structures to house them. And you need to hire employees to help. Things get distorted when you start thinking industrial, whereas your needs were met on the small scale.
Not all products have to be made en masse. Etsy, for example, offers many products that are made by small businesses. And people are happy to pay a little more for good products that are handmade or low production. As long as the quality is there, cheap is less of a factor. I foresee people seeing opportunity and launching their own small scale products.
Micro breweries, for example, have proliferated. Where I live there are at least three that I know of, and more I've heard about but never seen.
Not all things are made in big factories. There are many machine shops that can custom make products or do small run production. Another factor is that with 3D printing more is possible with the higher margins making it economically feasible to do small run production.
It could be years before corporations are able to ramp up production to fill the gap left by Chinese imports. But in the meantime, entrepreneurs can fill the void because they are more nimble and easier to fund. With higher margins, small businesses can scale organically.
And there is the economic concept of substitute goods. Maybe I can't get Canadian maple syrup. But I can substitute ordinary pancake syrup. Maybe we can't buy Chinese flip flops, but we could always buy huaraches from Mexico (at least I can as it's a couple of miles away).
Finally, the market is a bit inverted. Plumbers, HVAC techs, electricians, and other trade workers often out-earn college degree workers. Plumbers, for example, can earn over $100K per year. Truck drivers, for all their complaining, earn $50-80K per year. My brother earns over $30 an hour in the fire sprinkler industry. I think schools focus too much on sending kids to college, failing to inform them that there is good money to be made doing hard jobs without dealing with corporate BS.
I don't think all Americans are entrepreneurial. But there are enough who will jump at opportunity and drag everybody else along with them. Over the long term, things would consolidate to corporate production. But in the meantime, there is opportunity.
Congratulations, you have just described the USSR - how'd that turn out for the people again?
I think you have missed part of the equation - people have to earn enough money to be willing to spend a bit more. The situation you are describing doesn't help people earn to pay more.
You are obviously a Trump supporter, but what you have descried here just doesn't work in reality - especially a reality that people have become accustomed to.
The USSR dictated what would be produced, wages, and how much they would cost the consumer. I don't see any of that happening here.
My optimism doesn't stem from Trump. His plan could take years to bear fruit. Rather, I see it every day. People see an opportunity and jump in. I live in one of the poorest regions in the US (median household income of about $50K, by comparison a new teacher earns $54K), but if you drove around town you wouldn't think it. Our cost of living is also lower, which offsets the lower income. We used to have more manufacturing jobs until after NAFTA. We adapted. We still have some manufacturing, but the plants aren't as large, and some are running around the clock.
Maybe you're right. But from my observation, we have a strong entrepreneurial spirit and tend to pounce on opportunities.
I'll ask around to see who is going to the Dallas Market Center this year to find out if there are any changes. That is where wholesalers have storefronts to sell to retailers. Only business owners are allowed to visit. I'm curious if the selection will diminish or if the wholesalers will fill their displays with domestic products.
Yet. Once an economy closes off, it has to organise itself very differently - and it always fails.
I'm not saying the US will close off. Simply that we can manage during the transition to bringing back large manufacturing. Just like in the stock and crypto markets, money is made during volatility, not when the markets are trading sideways.
I wanted to suggest for one cam girl that she could earn a bit by blogging on Hive. But then I checked and learned that exchanges like Binance and Coinbase don't work in russia so she would probably not be able to cash out any of her earnings. Shame.
By the way is it safe to use telegram for messaging? I read some mixed opinions about it.
HIVE can be used for encrypted messaging through memos, and PeakD has a messaging service built in.
I have no idea how HIVE can work with exchanges in Russia, but newcomers can focus on censorship resistance and being an independent voice regardless of financial opportunity. Not a big cam girl concern, perhaps, but dissidents and freethinkers will be drawn if they know.
She probably earns a lot more wherever she is - and probably doesn't censor much! :D
I think I heard about this before but from what I remember probably have not used it.
I dunno - There used to be a porn site here (on Steem) but it died. Lots of trash. I am not really into it, but who knows, she might enjoy writing with her clothes on.
I remember the cesspool of spam that was. So many people reposting pics downloaded from other sites for a quick (and horny) profit. I spent a lot of voting power muting that kind of abuse with anti-spam projects on the old chain before we had the separate down ote pool. As usual, there were self-righteous spammers accusing us of wrongdoing as they copy/pasted someone else's content.
It was silly. Why do people think they should earn from stuff that is available elsewhere?
Because they are ever so helpful unofficial affiliate marketers for other businesses. At least, that's the gist of how at least one such spammer responded. Can't you see how essential it is for them to earn crypto for sharing stuff that's free on every torrent site or available with an unfiltered Google search?
Yes I remember. I think that I used nsfw tag for my art as well a few times. Even on pieces that hardly deserved that tag. For instance in this piece I used my own half naked photo as outline.
Not sure if my content made nsfw tag any better but at least I was using either my own photos or photos of Hive girls who had let me use their photos as an outline for my works.
It depends on the choice the people there make...
The paths have been determined only the outcomes remain to be seen...
I don't think that powers that be in USA care about helping average American or creating jobs for the people. I think the new administration and people behind it are using tariffs and talk about job creation to dupe the un-educated masses that voted for them into thinking they are doing something for them and will bring back manufacturing jobs, when in reality they are setting up for AI robots manufacturing everything in US.
Yes, there will be no jobs created. But majority of the people are too dim to understand what is really going on and the government knows it. Also, people have short memories and will believe what they are told. Who remembers that Bush tax cuts were 99% for 0.01% of the people? Does anyone care or understand the fact that Trumps first term tax cuts actually increased taxes by raising standard deduction while at the same time capping SALT tax deduction to 10k effectively rendering itemized deductions out of reach of most people unless you are super rich? You can no longer deduct your real estate taxes, or sales taxes which were the source of itemized deductions for most people. But nobody cares, government effectively raised taxes in Trump's first term calling them a tax cut, Biden did nothing to reduce the increased taxes and the population re-elected Trump to do it again.
And it will be done, one or the other way the middle class and everyone below will get screwed again and they will not get it and will vote for another snake oil salesman next time...
Honestly, this post makes me reflect on my own consumption habits and priorities. As someone who values convenience and affordability, I'd be curious to see how changes in manufacturing and trade policies would impact my daily life and budget. It's a bit unsettling to think about potential limitations on access to certain goods and services.
I live next door to the United States, as you know, and I think you are letting yourself be carried away by what you hear and read on the different social networks. I am one of those who think -critically-, that to talk about a nation without even being a neighbour, you first have to shake the dust off your own house. It's like me talking about Australia - the cost of living, the violence and crime - or about Filandia - while they paint it as a prosperous country - without even having set foot on the soil of any of them. My judgement is more about balance, I don't pretend to be either a fanatical leftist or a right-winger. That it supports ‘dictators’ is an absurdity.
Ah, but you are missing something - other people commenting here live in the US. Your experience is not necessarily as clear as you might think it is, as critical as you believe yourself to be. You make an assumption that my only view of the US comes through the media - I am not on any other social network by the way.
Glued to the satellite TV watching the international, tabloid news, or sitting reading the local press of some racist or social leftist media. What is the source that motivates you to criticise your distant neighbour. Just ten comments that in no way objectively reflect the interior of the United States -not even my own-.
Lols. You sound like someone else.
I have many, many friends there. And I have friends here who have family there.