In an attempt to put my finger to the wind, I posed a little question to the community yesterday: What would you do if Hive dropped to ten cents?
As predicted, the comments were positive. I think the hardcore Hiveans would probably increase their holdings—but it’s still fascinating to watch.
It’s obvious I don’t hold the answers here, and it’s possible nobody does. Yes, there’s TA, and a few analysts I follow in an effort to understand what’s going on. But honestly, things don’t always make sense in my head.
I see hundreds—if not thousands—of projects with nothing: no working product, just empty promises. Yet their valuations don’t reflect that reality. Meanwhile, here we have a community that not only refuses to leave or turn off the lights, but keeps building—regardless of what color the candles are.
Not that I ran this by the boss lady, but I sincerely think that if Hive goes to ten cents, I might have to sell my car or something. Selling Hive at that price feels criminal—like stomping on flowers just for the chaos—and I don’t think I could bring myself to do it.
Even today, I’m thinking about how to avoid selling at eighteen cents at all costs. Sadly, what’s in my pocket won’t last more than two days, but I’m already looking around, wondering if there’s one thing I can part with—one thing I could sell to someone.
One of our newest whales thinks this is the bottom, the last red sea before we shoot up. A part of me really wants to believe that. I am, as the kids say, all in. But to quote a wise man who once warned me:
The markets can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay afloat.
A punch in the gut, I’ll grant you that. But it keeps me grounded.
MenO
One thing that I'm still missing is investing in HIVE, like real money. I've bought HIVE, sure, but only to swap it into DEC. Everything in my account, all the HP, that is just rewards, so I don't feel like a stakeholder, yet. That might change, especially if Hive falls to 10c :-D
I'm thinking about getting into Binance and buying some more HIVE. Last time I bought at 19 cents, changed for DEC at 21 cents - made quite the difference. I might just wait until it drops to 18 cents and repeat the same.
I've never been able to call bottoms, so I'm happy to give it a good try. If I had fiat, which I don't, I would probably be dropping some on hive around here. A ladder down, as the kids say...
I think ten cents is not a question of if, but a question of when.
This doesn't mean that I am bearish on Hive. Quite the opposite, I am actually bullish. But from my vision of the world is that we are in the final phases of long running bull markets. The last recession hit USA in 2008, that is like 17 years ago and since then we were on the up and up... We are artificially propped up for too long, the housing market is starting to show cracks as well.
I think in the next year or two we will see a blow off top in the markets and in crypto. That will be a great time to sell most of the risk on assets before a bear market in stocks and a recession. I think stock markets will drop close to 50% and in that case BTC drops more than that, perhaps 60 to 70% and altcoins will drop even more like 75 to 95%...
So yes there will be an opportunity to buy Hive at 10 cents, very few will actually buy it.
When BTC crashes I'm calling a bottom at 30K..
Question is from what level would it crash to 30K?
I think next bear market it goes down around there
You paint a doomsday scenario my friend... i doubt we would come out without a scar across one of our eyes
But is it really a doomsday scenario? I think we are overdue for another bear market. I lived through only one of those:
I don't analyse the markets too much, but things have changed a lot since this chain started and was in the top 10 at times. There are so many coins being hyped whilst Hive just gets on with being a stable platform. I'm sure the economics are difficult for some witnesses and projects, but the transactions are still free and fast. Those features ought to be worth something.
we have a solid floor, don't know exactly where it is, but like you, I'm not going anywhere so there's that...
That said, the haircut won't even kick in (for hbd) until hive drops under 6 cents, which I find close to impossible to be honest.
Indeed...
I've started selling a lot, not like I held a lot to begin with.
It's easy to be dream-like and whimsical and say buy the dip.
But what if there aren't more buys left, what if the dips are actually just beginning.
In summary, it has really been a rough month.
If it makes you feel any better STEEM is currently 12 cents..
Steem's price is propped up artificially by Tron. I suspect very soon Justin will give up on it, and let it die.
He got his money out long ago.
Hive sits in it's very own niche among all these crypto projects, but social hasn't been a hot narrative in crypto in quite a few years. Of course, if there's a proper alt season, HIVE will be doing a bit better, but the question is what it would take for HIVE to actually outperform the broader crypto market. To me, the main question is innovation - the top projects have either disrupted a hot narrative or have pushed a ton of marketing / BD budget in order to innovate on a product and business level, not even on a technical one. With its core community of hardcore investors and users, HIVE has a very good basis, but it would take one of order of magnitude more in terms of users to reach another order of magnitude in terms of price, say $1.
I believe the next support level was 18 cents. ...which, we are currently at... Let's see if it holds.