The distribution of Hive Power has become more equal over the last month, according to a comparison of @argange's most excellent statistics, which show us distribution levels my MVEST and by number of accounts, and by all accounts and active accounts.
Below I look at trends in distribution from April 1st 2020 to May 1st 2020, based on all MVESTs and all users.
Looking at distribution based on all MVESTS should give us the most valid picture of how actual 'power' on hive is distributed. While <50K/ 150K MVESTS register as 'active', 140K MVESTs are presently voting for the current number one witness (@gtg), which is >90% of total MVESTs.
This tells us that at least 90% of those MVESTS are actively deployed (rather than dormant because of lost keys etc.), even if the users who control it aren't actively using it to make transactions on a daily basis.
The Hive per Vests ratio was 0.0005123 on 1st May 2020 (Hiveblocks.com)
Trends in distribution by MVEST levels
1st of April 2020
1st of May 2020
| Level | % of total MVESTS 1st April | % of total MVESTS 1st May |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 45.59% | 42.4% |
| Orcas | 24.8% | 26.09% |
| Dolphins | 17.03% | 18.04% |
| Minnows | 8.31% | 8.89% |
| Redfish | 4.28% | 4.58% |
The share of total MVESTS held by Whale accounts has decreased by around 3% in the last month, with Orcas and Dolphins picking up 1% each and the lower levels of accounts 0.5% each.
Trends in distribution by number of accounts
I decided to included this just for reference too!
1st of April 2020
1st of May 2020
| Level | No. of accounts 1st April | No. of accounts 1st May |
|---|---|---|
| Whales | 34 | 35 |
| Orcas | 315 | 311 |
| Dolphins | 2051 | 2019 |
| Minnows | 9196 | 9156 |
| Redfish | 1362341 | 1368472 |
This was unexpected - one more whale account, yet fewer Orca, Dolphin and Minnow accounts, I guess this is people powering down, but clearly not that many. Overall, things seem to be fairly level with last month, with the exception of a lot of Redfish accounts being created.
Commentary/ Analysis
Based on the distribution of MVESTS it looks like we can make the claim for a trend towards greater equality of distribution and thus greater decentralisation.
However, the user statistics above the level of Redfish seem to suggest the opposite: increasing inequality: we have one more whale the the number of users in each level decreases at a faster rate as we go down the level.
Having said that, with one more whale in the top level yet less MVESTS, 'whale equality' has increased, while for Orca-Minnow accounts, slightly fewer accounts with more MVESTS mean the size of the average account will be ever so slightly larger, and all of these moving closer to the 'average whale' account.
So I guess, based on these rather unusual bins, we do have increasing equality!
However this is also a time of transition so I don't want to 'read' too much into these stats ATM.
I don't discuss redfish because many of these will have 0 MVESTS.
Sources:
I hope you become the biggest whale one day.
so, are you going for orca or sticking here with us dolphins?
Oh I'll Power Up towards Orca one day, it's just a matter of how quickly I get there, which depends on the Hive price!
Not totally sure but I think the DAO, (DAF), funds are in the whales accounts and stake.
If we exclude those this chart may look different. Need to look closer at those MVESTS :)
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Steem.dao wouldn't have changed the amount of hive between April 1st and may 1st unless some people gifted them.
83 million Hive are in an account called 'steem.dao' - not powered up, I think that's all the stake that was nullified, not sure.
Even if it were spread across the Whale accounts, it's still valid I think to compare the monthly trend.
Come to think of it from a security perspective it is a terrible idea to have that much hive in one account, not powered up!
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Oh OK that's interesting to know.
Yes ... I found this a bit concerning even knowing that there is no keys etc as @crokkon point outs....
The DAO account has to much funds imo .... if not hacks, it can be attractive for manipulations, cartels, and corruption.
And ATM it's being paid exclusively to the people who Forked Hive from Steem.
Perhaps we should put that in out marketing material?
It makes sense the redistribution is happening. But with so much Hive on power down it's really difficult to analyze what is actually happening right now.
You would have thought so wouldn't you, but what I find even more surprising is how little has changed in 4 weeks, that's 30% of the PowerDowns done already.
But you're right, we'll have a much clearer picture at the end of June!
it will be interesting how normal people will be using this opportunity to become something big in the coming days
Here is a snapshot from farther back.
https://steemit.com/steemit/@bitgeek/payout-stats-report-for-2nd-november-2017--part-i
It shows the distribution taking place.
I thought it had totals, but doesn't.