So yeah, I keep hearing about Magic Dice and lots of people addicted to it. It's "provably fair", or rather, "auditably fair after the fact". And it has a 2% House Edge.
I have heard multiple people think of botting the system, and I'm here to tell you that is the worst idea you can possibly have.
No long term strategy, e.g. botting, is ever going to get you anywhere. People think they can be clever but in the end, the house edge will happily eat your money.
Why is this? Well, a fundamental property governing this is quite simply the Law of Large Numbers, which roughly speaking says that if you have a probabilistic procedure with expected value E that you repeat, with independent outcomes, the average value of N repititions "converges" to E as N increases.
What this means is the following. If you know that your dice strategy has expected value less than 0, and I guarantee you that any decision strategy based on your current holdings and past results will be, because the rolls are independent with house edge, then in the long run, the repetition of this strategy will average to less than 0.
There is no escaping the law of large numbers.
If you like data, then @themarkymark has collected some for you in this post albeit on a specific scenario. A wider analysis isn't going to reveal anything surprising... Unless there's something wrong with the random number generator... So I encourage more audits to take place. But it will be tricky to detect sketchy behavior because a closed source algorithm can still be greedy and selectively cheat or even just pack up shop and run away at the right time. I'm not saying this is happening though, I'm saying it's a possibility.
Lucky Instances
Another question you might have is. Hey eon, if you're so smart, then why are there people that seem to be making bank with it? This is quite simple. Ruling out cheating... The law of large numbers doesn't say how long a particular process will take to converge. But it does say that eventually it will. The notion of convergence is also slightly tricky, and I won't get into it here. This means it's quite likely to see many people with good streaks. But show me a bot that has been continually playing, and is consistent in pulling profit, and I will advise you to perform the audit on that account.
Some Fun Strategies
One can do a following simulation about one of the more well known betting systems: the martingale
aka double or nothing. Example simulation site can be found here. The idea is to keep doubling until you win, because surely the chances of losing so many times in a row is rare, right? Then repeat, and profit!
The site explains it a lot better than I will here, but the only way this can work is if you have infinite wealth. The input bet grows exponentially as you double down, so it won't take such a long unlucky streak until you run out of money.
And think about it this way: if you are running a bot that does this, running forever, you will eventually hit unlucky streaks of arbitrary size. If the bot doesn't have the funds to handle the loss, you are done.
Anyway, if you enjoy the thrill, roll a few dice, support dapps, get magic tokens, whatever. But don't even think about botting.
You will bleed.
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ǝɹǝɥ sɐʍ ɹoʇɐɹnƆ pɐW ǝɥ┴
I've been noticing large losing streaks happen insanely frequently. 7-10+ losing streaks 10-20+ times/hr. Each one enough to wipe you out. That's why I originally did the research, but it doesn't address all possible issues. Just making the numbers streaky would wipe almost everyone out at one point.
Streaks are actually quite expected, but it does depend on how many times you rolled in that hour too. For example, the expected number of times to get a streak of size S in N rolls is roughly (1/2)^S * N. For 7-streaks, you'd "expect" one to show up about every 128 rolls.
(Ugh I hope I applied linearity of expectation correctly here. I'm getting rusty)
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If i remember correctly this all has to do with the "independent event" problem.. Marky does seem to be "unlucky" but with each roll being an independent event this streak could go on for quite a while.
I mean even if you tried to play a 100 games at 1% chance of winning, you still only have around a 60% chance of winning at least once in a 100 games....
I dont like those odds... Ill get some tokens from delegating but thats as far as im willing to go..
The games i did play, i won all of them so better to quit while im ahead. :D
It's true. However we can evaluate the probability of it happening in a given set of rolls. Definitely some funniness with the statistics of the rng. But it appears to be a known behavior. The real requirement is that the values cannot be predicted. We'll see if there's any flaw in the current setup. Possibly the formula shows that every 10 blocks the rolls within may be correlated in some way. Especially since the only different numbers are block num + client hash (controlled by user). Not for me to break though, I'm terrible at this kind of thing.
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Not as often as I see them. Within 5 minutes, I had 4 7+ losing streaks.
How many rolls in those 5 minutes though? But yeah, depends.
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It happens constantly, back to back.
Oh.... That does seem weird then...
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And I just realized now on a different interface I can see the string of losses together. Wow. And you are playing near-even... Can you tell me of the games you played with this configuration, how many of them were wins out of how many total? If you were playing these odds, this is definitely not what I'd expect. 11 wins out of 83 where the probability of winning is 44/100.
Let's see... Central limit theorem will tell us the distribution of number of wins (under certain conditions which is satisfied here) will be very close to normal distribution with mean np and standard deviation sqrt(np(1-p))...
Mean 83*.44=36.52 Stdev Sqrt(83*.44*.56) = 4.52You are about 5.62 standard deviations from the mean in this batch, and that's already very rare....
I know that random number generator isn't truly random, but hum.....
Does it happen with winning streaks and is there a correlation to the amount someone plays. Hook them, get them to increase bets, wipe them out.
Gambling is bad.. mkay
very few winning streaks, they happen but rarely. The few times they happen (like once every 2 hours) you win almost nothing as wins you don't win much. But loses wipe everything.
Would be interesting to see some more patterns emerge.
I have always been too risk averse to gamble, that is why I am in crypto now....
I noticed that you've been playing an awful lot. Are you up or down just out of curiosity?
Interesting @eonwarped.
If I understand this correctly, a place where a bot would seem to shine, with the ability to assess probabilities faster than a human could and thus choose accordingly, is the place where it fails.
I'm wondering, within the law of large numbers, where this is because each time the dice (die?) are rolled, it's like a reset. There's nothing stopping the same numbers that were just rolled to appear, just as there's nothing stopping a new set of numbers to appear.
In other words, a bot would do better at a card game, where each card revealed is removed and therefore narrows the field of cards.
The thing about the random generator, though, as opposed to real life die rolling, is the generator is based on some sort of algorithm, right, mathematical equations, that are skewed to the house to some degree. It seems to me that if it were possible, the bot would be better off trying to assess and then mimic the algorithm. I guess what I'm getting at, is the algorithm truly random, or is it an array of rolls so large it just appears to be random, but is actually following a predictable course, that over time (however long that might be) could be gamed? I'm just kind of thinking out loud here, since I'm not that aware of how random generators work, or how the laws of large numbers and that of probability intermingle.
Still, I find it fascinating that this might be the place where a bot would hold less than desired sway over things. Almost as fascinating as the fact that people are always wanting to gain advantage, regardless of the odds, the outcomes or their own best interests.
What you are getting at here is the nature of the randomness itself, that's a whole other can of worms.
My assumptions of the post is that the randomness is perfect (e.g. sourced by quantum let's say.
Even in the case of perfect randomness, the odds are dead simple to calculate. No bot is going to change these odds.
As soon as you are in pseudorandom territory, I believe there are some theoretical guarantees about "how random" a source is based on algorithm but that's beyond what I even wanted to mention :)
A bot can only do well if the computed odds of the game can net positive expected gains, and that's really the point here: the game magic dice is well understood. The odds are simply against the better in favor of the house. Bot or not, nobody will win against the house. Again, assuming random source is truly random.
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Interesting insight thanks for the info
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If you want to have fun loosing your money and earning MAGIC tokens, then play Under 95 or Over 6. That way, your win chances are 94%, allowing for many rolls. Use just a bit of what you can afford to loose and you can play for hours before you run out.
My 400 steem losses prof what you are talking about.
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I can't bleed (I'm a mannequin, haha)... but I lost my STEEM... so, no more crypto to play, and it's ok for me.
Big Plastic Hug
Steemitri The Mannequin
Awesome Stuff, Evan!
Yes, this is correct, and even in a "house edge of ZERO" it still works out to if one keeps playing, they will LOSE. I have proven this on Coinpot rolls to myself. I started the Martingale Strategy on that system, and I had actually a very large stake built up. Over 150,000 Satoshis and it crapped out. At least it was all "house money" that I had earned in the faucets. But I'd be way ahead now if I'd only shown more restraint and/or just never gambled with the free coins. Never Gambling is WAY EASIER than exercising restraint. About a million times easier, trust me!
Lost my mortgage , car , credit , SP , steem , BTC....I think itstime to stop playing magic dice.
Oh snap! Puts on sunglasses
Sell sunglasses and bets
I play a bit and I have to say that I'm enjoying it so far. However, if you go to their discord you will see lots of people mentioning how much money they lost. One guy yesterday said they lost $300.
I was just saying this to someone a couple of days ago. If I have a 49% of kicking your ass, and you have a 51% chance of kicking my ass and we fight forever.... I am definitely going to lose that battle.
Botting is a bad idea. If you're going to play you should have a strategy. Also you can change the odds in your favor, but you will get paid less.
Having said that, I do think everyone should try it.... just don't bet more than you can afford to lose and understand that is very likely you will lose some money in the process.
There is definitely a slight amount of fun to be had. I'll admit to liking gambling myself though I have yet to participate yet :)
These stories about great losses though really are disheartening. I hope they all were responsible gamblers.
I like that someone posted this, although, it should be a comment on trevon james video about never losing on magic dice. LoL
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I never gamble or play this kind of games... I can't afford and knowing a bit of stats is like, no bother... I don't believe in easy routes anyway. My brother does buy a lottery ticket from time to time and he's aware, he only does for the "thrill" of it, which is I believe what get people addicted even with the chances clearly on the table
Yup this is true. There sure is a certain thrill to gambling I'll admit. It's why I'm currently not playing haha
hahah neither am I ;-) better not to risk it the thrill is too powerful! LOL
I don't get why people play. Essentially the more they play the closer they get to a steady 2% loss unless lucky. There is no skill whatsoever on it is there?
I played some to farm the magic tokens - they claim that this will give you share in their profits.
Same here cardboard, I played to get the magic tokens, and for fun, I'm not trying to beat the system or anything, lol.
Yeah I remember that is the reason. And people love gambling in the first place so it's reasonable to assume this might be good. Though I think @lordbutterfly analyzed that even dividends won't be very much? I didn't read too deeply into it though to confirm.
But still... Depending on more and more gamblers to feed the system. History tells us that it'll probably be around forever though ;). Just a matter of which gambling hall is the most enticing.
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Ever been into a full pachinko parlour? my nightmare.
Oh my goodness. I did go once, just for that experience of seeing that though. Never again. Very loud. And smoky. And not fun even haha.
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There is not. But it's the same for all dice dapps out there. People have the illusion they can outsmart the system.
Maybe no skill required is the attraction? :D
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