In the past decade, the Kremlin has done whatever it could to sow division amongst and within western countries. Unfortunately, their effort has worked disturbingly well, as more and more people have come to doubt the legitimacies of their own democracies.
Fortunately, Putin's recent actions against Ukraine seem to have almost undone the damages that decades of Russian-spread misinformation may have had on western unity. Today, the west stands more united than it ever has in most people's lifetime.
Forgetting the impact that sanctions may have on Putin and his friends, this could prove to be the unintended consequence most destructive to his ambition.
It's been fascinating to listen to the political hearings within major European countries following Putin's invasion. Political parties who normally seem to have nothing in common are suddenly all aligned in condemning Russia's offensive invasion and war crimes. Hardly any appears to object to the harsh sanctions placed on Russia, nor the decisions to provide support to the Ukrainians. The only disagreement I’ve seen so far is whether or not to also provide weapons, where some far-left parties occasionally speak against it.
But overall, people across the whole political spectrum, across all western countries, are united on the essential part: We need to work together to stop Putin.
Countries are now looking to join NATO or the EU.
The EU has made more progress in finding consensus for progressing its military and energy policy development these past two weeks than it did in the past two decades. Germany has committed itself to spend 100 billion euros on defense, taking its share of GDP up from 1,5% to well above 2%. Likewise, Germany has also forwarded its goal of becoming carbon neutral to 2035 in order to become less reliant on Russian oil and Gas.
Germany is not alone, Poland also announced this week that it will increase its military spending from 2% to 2.5%. Norwegian prime minister Jonas Gahr Støre also announced yesterday that Norway will likely follow the same path. As a result, decades of NATO countries relying on American defense spending could come towards an end.
But just as important, other political parties and countries are seeing the value of NATO and EU membership, and are increasingly discussing or even making their own proposals.
I wouldn't be surprised to see either Sweden or Finland join NATO fairly soon. While fears in the past have been that doing so would provoke Russia, we're now in a place where there's hardly anything else that could be done to provoke them more. Additionally, the justification for doing so is so obvious that it would be difficult to argue against.
A new dawn on the European continent
The coming months and years are likely to be disappointing to whoever has drunk the cool-aid of Putin's propaganda, and believes that western leaders are somehow all evil. It is likely to be disappointing to those who wished for a less united and powerful west, Nato, EU, and global collaboration. As people's emotions intensify in rejecting war, dictatorship, and oppression - the ways of Putin - they are more likely to bond and seek unity in whatever opposes his world view. And we can already see this in all the demonstrations happening around the world. People want to starnd up for western democracy.
Don't get me wrong. There is plenty to criticize about the west. From the US interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. To the corrupt influence of money in politics. All of this gives good ground for criticism. But that doesn't make Putin's characterization of it as hostile to Russian security true.
Conclusion
It is very easy to be a critic. Looking at our countries the past few decades of relative peace on our continents, it has been easy to see mostly negative things. It may have taken the stark contrast of war, dictatorship, and outright fascism displayed by Putin to remind most people of how lucky we are to have the institutions, cultures, and even leaders that we have in the west.
Putin will not lose due to an invasion of his perceived enemies, because NATO and the west were never going to invade Russia. He will lose when his own people and allies crave western democracy and freedom more than his tyranny, and oppression. This is why the Russian information war has been so important to his agenda, to make the people he has control over less likely to desire something else. Ironically, this is something he will have likely accelerated with his recent actions, as people desire western values and social systems now more than ever.
And while we should never stop scrutinizing our own social infrastructures and hold those in power accountable, it should be worth pausing and appreciating how despite its many flaws it still works fantastically well.
The best way to deter an invasion is to arm the population "Behind ever blade of grass there will be a rifleman' to mis quote a japanese general while discussing why it would be a BAD idea to invade the US.
That holds true to this day. Everyone should have a rifle, a shot gun, a hand gun. Perhaps a couple of rocket launchers (stinger and javelin) There's no good reason for the civilian population to NOT be armed as well as the military.
Unless they are properly trained armed civilians just get themselves and other people killed and have no impact on the enemy.
Compulsory military service for all so that people get training. I can agree with that. Giving guns to civilians willy nilly after the professional military has failed. That's dangerous, stupid and makes people illegal combatants without Geneva Convention protections.
Indeed I've never understood how the "a well regulated militia" words in the Second Amendment are always ignored. Training as part of a well regulated (ie with discipline and proper command and control) militia is an essential part of military effectiveness.
a gun is the original 'point and click' interface. It's not really hard. "never point a gun at anyone you don't want to kill' It's so easy even liberals should be able to figure it out. Er. Well maybe not that easy.
as far as the geneva conventions are concerned? The Bad guys don't adhere to them so why should we? So we'll be on the 'right' side of history? Yeah. DEAD right. Good guys finish last.
Part 2. we do not need or want 'compulsory military service.' Wasn't the civil war about slavery? Conscripts are 'war slaves' I was one. I didn't like it. Actually 95% of the military doesn't know crap about using handguns. If we want the civilian population to learn how to use guns just get out of the way. Don't make it so damn HARD to own or use guns. Yes we DO need to have 'weapons of war' in the hands of private citizens. You know how many times the average cops uses their guns? About ever time they qualify. (once a month? twice a year?) The qualifications aren't that hard either. My granddaughter could shoot better than that when she twelve.
When my dad was a kid the had rifle classes in school.
I wish we still did. Every kid should know how to use a gun.
you said 'Unless they are properly trained armed civilians just get themselves and other people killed and have no impact on the enemy"
Really? What makes you say that? Do you have any hard data to back it up?
100%
Other countries will be scared Russia could attack them next, so of course they want some protection. Putin got away with taking some parts of Ukraine, but it seems he mis-judged how others would react to a full invasion.
The UK has been someone lacking in its reactions and the sponsoring of politicians by Russians could be seen as a reason for this. Not sure how they will talk their way out of that.
I went to Kyiv a couple of times about 10 years ago for work, so I feel some attachment to the place. Sad to see this going on. Putin needs to go.
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These politicians can talk all day long now lets see what they actually can and will do.
The West is far from united. It is just that alternative views have been completely censored from the mainstream media and social media. Just like over COVID.
There is mass hysteria leading to self destructive (sanctions) and extremely dangerous (acts of war against Russia) policies being adopted.
The West seems to want to "cancel" Russia, with many calling for the assassination of the head of the largest nuclear armed state.
Russia will CANCEL The West with nuclear fire before it allows itself to be destroyed.
Any attempt to assassinate Putin will lead to devastating consequences.