I need to say something about COVID-19 in Australia

in #covid194 years ago

I will start this post by saying many things. I am not a medical professional. I am not a scientist. I am not an expert. I am an individual who is able to read information from a number of sources, make inferences, and do something very important, which is lacking in the wider Australian community - read the entirety of an article, and practice reading between the lines.

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This rambling applies to the Australian situation at present. At the time of writing this, Australia is just under 15,000 cases. In a nation of 23-27 million people, that's not an enormous amount of virus. I live in Adelaide, South Australia. Most Australians live in the coastal population centres, and the capitals of each state, which are convenient red dots on the map above.

The Australian Story

The Australian state governments introduced a lock down of sorts earlier in the year, with people only allowed to be outside for "essential" tasks - shopping, work, obtaining medical care, or exercise. Stores floors were peppered with stickers, some with one way aisles, all with "X" markers on the ground that would make a genuine pirate-ship captain blush as they attempted to shovel the loot from the Earth beneath their feet.

Australia was very different to every other nation on Earth in response to the virus. Anyone returning from overseas was thrown into a hotel for a fourteen day "quarantine period" (For a first hand account, please go and read @riverflows blog, and her many excellent accounts of her experience. Here's a starting point.

The majority of International Flights into Australia land in Melbourne or Sydney. As a result, these two cities had the most "returned" travellers in quarantine. Many more Australians remain abroad, unable to return due to the lack of flights, or local travel restrictions in the nations they may've found themselves in at the time the Australian Government all but closed the borders, severely reducing the number of inbound aircraft.

One of Australia's largest cities, Melbourne, is now subject to an enormous chain of outbreaks.

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This is a graph of new daily cases. Australia's "lockdown" saw a sharp decline in cases, then a small number of cases. The majority of these were in hotels, within the "quarantine" of returned travellers. Then... well, a single case from a hotel got some community transmission out into the ... community. Then there's that big spike.

That spike that mirrors the first, but is mostly limited to a single state.

How did the community transmission get off the ground?

Security guards at these quarantine hotels didn't do their job properly, to the point of absolute criminal negligence. Accounts of one guard having sexual intercourse with a quarantined traveller, the communal use of cigarette lighters, and other transmission inducing activities.

This is blamed on the sub-contracting of the hotel quarantine to private security companies, who then had the job passed off to Corrections Victoria, (who run the prisons in the state) - and well, there's absolutely no scandals of prison guards engaging in sexual acts with detainees in that organisation is there?

The Current State of Affairs

Each and every state now has different rules on public gatherings, what businesses can operate, and what physical distancing measures need to be followed by individuals. I will only comment on South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria.

South Australia has not had any unknown community transmission of the virus throughout this pandemic period. Victoria never had it under control. New South Wales had several disasters of the virus spreading in aged care facilities.

Victoria is now in a lock down where people are obligated to wear masks when outside of their homes, and may only leave for one of four reasons: work (or education), essential supplies (groceries, or other goods), medical care, or exercise. There's been some spread of what, in the media was called the "Victorian strain" into some areas of New South Wales.

The "Victorian Strain"

I'm interrupting the flow of the above text to focus on this point, a phrase I heard in a press conference. The fact that what is referred to as a "Victorian strain" of the virus asks me the question that wasn't asked by reporters at the press conference. If this a "Victorian strain", how many strains of COVID-19 are out in the community being transmitted?

I'll leave that question unanswered, as I'm not a medical expert, and don't know enough about viruses. What I do know, from even the most basic of biological studies in high school, is that when a virus has infected millions of hosts, and its genetic code is made up of a long strand of RNA, it is incredibly likely that in the millions of hosts, and the millions of replications the virus has undergone inside each of those hosts, there's bound to be mutation and differing strains.

Back to the present

Victorian residents are all but excluded from travelling to other regions of Australia. South Australia has taken the liberty of saying, "even if you're a South Australian resident and you're in Victoria, bad luck. You won't be let back in past Tuesday next week." (Also, they'll have to undergo quarantine).

Meanwhile, as I write this, twenty thousand odd South Australians are at a sporting event at Adelaide Oval. Last night, a similar number were out at another sporting event.

They're "physically distanced", with every second seat empty in a stadium that holds 50,000 people, but of course, like all stadia, there's bottlenecks to entry and exit, toilet, food supply, and other facilities.

Last night, I was in the city doing some photographic work. The nightclub district (which I had to pass through to go from car-park to photographic venue) - saw a complete lack of any physical distancing between any people. I even saw a few alcohol-driven disputes between groups of individuals (some involving actual fighting)

So what happens next?

The overwhelming evidence is easy to analyse. If it takes one infected case to see five hundred per day, and a governmental system that sees the see-saw notion of lock down, not lock down, lock down, not lock down, the public, businesses, and people's finances will continue to lead to a precipitous cliff. Whether you're a proponent of a vaccine, or of herd immunity, or eradication - there's problems that every single government of the world is not dealing with currently - how will the healthcare system adapt to the consequences and long term co-morbidity that are spawned by a recovered COVID-19 patient?

We, as a human race, do not know what impacts or complications this virus will have on the bodies it is ravaging right now.

I don't know what to do. I don't want the responsibility of telling others what to do. What I do know I need to do is say some simple fucking things to everyone.

  • This is not caused by 5G.
  • Masks don't cause you harm
  • Be prepared for the ongoing impacts of this short segment of history

Stay safe.

Images sourced from John Hopkins Corona Virus dashboard

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@philippekiene ended up in quarantine, too.
I feel at this point it's inevitable that it'll hit SA, and sweep through.
Too many infections, too porous a border, too little concern here. I went to Bunnings the other day, and nobody (myself included) was wearing a mask or taking any but the most cursory precautions.
I'm a little more worried of being 'the state in the bubble' than I am of the virus, tbh.

Feels clean - but I guess until there's more study into the long term effects, we won't know anything!

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Eventually countries will realise that the only options are the Swedish model or complete economic destruction and social breakdown.

Australia is just putting off the inevitable at great cost.

The long term effect of of COVID are not fully understood but they affect a small minority of people and many other diseases have nasty long term effects in a minority of people (ie glandular fever).

The facts of COVID are these:

  • 98%-99% of fatalities have other serious co-morbidities (Israel and Italian studies)
  • Average age of death is 81
  • A significant number of the early outbreak death were caused by improper treatment (ventilators) or medical mistakes. Israeli study.
  • Overall death rates on an annual basis are not higher than normal.

It is super infectious but not that dangerous.
All attempts to stop its spread in the general population are counterproductive and cause far more harm than they prevent.

Those who are vulnerable are very small in number and easily identifiable.
They should be protected directly and the rest of society should get back to normal.

Yep, this is the other "unreported" factoids of the underlying medical condition. A high majority of the deaths from COVID are occurring in those that would have otherwise passed away this year from other medical complications or conditions.

As you know, Australia is excellent at "kicking the can down the the road", but what they also do is continue to pave that road at an alarming rate in the guise of "jobs and growth", so they can kick that can even further down the road.

What percent are long haulers? You retards with a fixation on date rates never mention that. Yeah and everyone go back to work and a lifelong illness that will never go away. Go fuck your mother

Great write up, unfortunately, most of the response to all of this has been a classic case of unseen consequences. If you don't see the direct consequences of your actions, then it is essentially 'priced' at zero cost.

That said, it is also a problem with different costs on different people. The effects of a 2 week quarantine period doesn't hurt some people, but is a financial disaster for others. I wonder if it is c prudent to pay people to stay at home for the quarantine period... Sure, there will be people who game the system, but that might just have to be acceptable loss for the greater benefit?

We shouldn't even bother talking about the messed up response in other parts of the world...

As an Australian living overseas, I was so proud that Australia managed to get it under control... But then worried when it slipped out again. Luckily there had been no direct impact on my wife's or my family... But we are all too aware of the difficulties in returning our things went bad.

And turning Australia back into a series of prison colonies where citizens can't leave and state borders are closed undoes 120 years of Federation.

Agreed, but this isn't anywhere close to that. If these things are permanent then it would be a big problem.

The balance of state power and individual freedom needs to be constantly flexible as required. To have it set rigidly one way or another is not possible, and I would think a disaster.

So, at the moment, the state power is in very very slight ascendancy (the penalties are not very harsh at all in comparison to what they could be and are mostly requests for co-operation). There will be a time for push back... And these restrictions affect people in a more demonstrable way than encryption, media and digital restrictions and 'oversight', so they will be much more resented if they stay past their usefulness.

There's also the undocumented impact of these "co-operation requests", which rises the cost of living, and for people doing business - masks, additional sanitiser, those useless stickers on the ground... :P

Yep, agreed. With the disproportionate impact on different levels of income. This entire situation does bring into the question about how society and the economy works on a fundamental level.

Such as the idea of unpaid labour not being priced in the economy (carers, non working parents...) and the complete disconnect between incomes (economic pricing) and 'contribution' to society (teachers, nurses...).

It is all passingly interesting, it would be a pity to return to the earlier model of maximise personal profit, minimise personal expenses.

Socialise the losses, privatise the profits, classic neo-liberalism. :)

My photographic business endeavours were a complete write-off this year - and the investments I made in that equipment will likely not see a ROI for many more years to come. I'm not blaming the virus, I'm a shit marketer, but the virus has definitely seen a downturn in that industry.

My day job... that's never been busier.

I think we should go one step further money wise - I'm a big fan of UBI, but from the point of nutrition - because "ration packs" that are developed for a specific dietary or cultural requirement would be far more valuable than money. Throw in some sort of guaranteed accommodation of reasonable quality for people, and then we all focus on what we care about, and what we're passionate about, instead of doing (in the vast majority of cases) - things we hate, so we can do the things we love.

I don't talk about politics much, but my "ration packs" idea is a bit more than war-time rations :P

Ah, I'm in the other boat... Day job is a wipe for the moment... But the side jobs have gotten better. So, surviving... But it stings!

UBI would be a great thing. Subsistence support should be something that you don't need to 'run to stay still' for. If people want more, then jobs are possible... But endless consumption feeding endless growth is a touch like a Ponzi.

People would be free to pursue their interests and desires, and that would have more possible innovative effects than labouring at a job that has little meaningful contribution to society that doesn't engage the person.

We'll all continue to get-by so long as we keep breathing. :)

read the entirety of an article, and practice reading between the lines.

Damn, you made me read the entire article word by word. xD

Hope it wasn't too rambling for you!

read the entirety of an article, and practice reading between the lines

Ain't nobody got time for that XD

What a freaking mess >_<

Easier to jump to a conclusion than navigate your way there. :D

What does cause harm is the artificial disruption of the economical system by government action. A lock down in Austalia, or in other well devoleped countries, is annoying to the people, it causes difficulties, loss of money, possible unemployment and such things.
But a lock down in a underdeveloped country is a totally different ball game. There are plenty of countries, where the majority of people cannot stay at home - many don't even have a home to stay in. They cannot stop working, or their family has nothing to eat anymore after 3 days.
To expect to control the virus by installing rules in such countries is just unworldly. And as long as the virus can roam freely among a third of the worlds population, there is no way to shield the other two thirds and return to a normal life style.
It seems we have to endure more difficulties for quiete a while before things get better again. As you say, viruses tend to mutate - they can get worse, but they can also get harmless. Lets see which one it is this time.

The irony is that the government complains about the fact that the economy is poor, which is arguably a measure that they use for their own success (which drives tax revenues, and other public services) - but... there's such a lack of preparation for such things - with no economic reserve, or levers to pull - instead "legislation" on the go, in response to these things.

Ie, no "business continuity plans" - or crisis management. Just a blank book where new rules are written. Hopefully, some rules are written for any such future events as an outcome of the events of recent times.

Well, there are only 2 options really - just to say "shit happens" and to carry on like before, or to try to counteract somehow by rules and orders. Of course nobody really knows what needs to be done, since its 100 years ago that something similar happened. And the life was totally different back then, as were the ethical standards.
So what they do now is more or less educated guessing and learning by doing. And nothing that can be done will be very popular, since it always means restrictions and financial losses for the people.

We just had 2 cases reported from down the road. 2 young girls have returned from Melbourne and lied on the forms upon returning. They returned to their homes and went on with their lives for 8 days before falling sock and testing positive. Browns plains and Springfield are affected. One was a cleaner and worked at a school also.

Prepare for an outbreak in Brisbane?

Skyrim Guard.exe

Say:

"Stop, Criminal Scum!"

In New Zealand, I try to disguise myself as sheep... I think they are still immune to COVID... There's too much wool to penetrate! 😁

Sorry I missed this when it came out. I'm not good at notifications. A week later and ALL of Vic has to wear masks, and we aren't allowed visitors in our homes. Still fine to go to cafes etc if you wear masks. I can barely breath with them on - lucky you don't have to wear them with 'strenuous' activity ie walking on beach - I had to leave Bunnings yesterday (the horror) because I couldn't breath.

That hotel quarantine drama was a debacle. The overseas cap on numbers coming in is a debacle. Yep, it will only take a small outbreak in SA for it to happen there. So, what to do? I'm more libertarian. COVID will be with us for a while - keep locking us up, and the knock on effects will be bigger than ever. Learn to live with it, and it'll fizzle out eventually. Get some better systems in place - i.e care homes, where most of numbers are, shouldn't have people working in different jobs (cross contamination). No one's REALLY going to listen to Dan now. We're all burnt out. People have to work - 300 bucks waiting for a test isn't going to feed your family if you're low income working three jobs in Melbourne Town. You can't blame people for that.

I don't know what the solution is, I just know I'm slammed if I suggest we let this play out. If you're immune compromised, it's you that should be staying at home imho. Life is a risk - whilst I'm not dumb enough to rub shoulders with everyone at a footy match, have house parties or tongue kiss strangers, and I'm happy enough to wear a mask in the supermarket, I do need to be trusted to 'do the right thing' according to the moral policing of the Australian people right now. And I think we've erred on the side of blind fear, seeing COVID as the only risk. Why don't we care about deaths from alchohol and fags - we still allow them. We still allow people to drive cars and over 1000 people died in them last year. Let alone climate change - remember that? Yeah yeah I know if we don't take precautions we might have more die, but I think it's time to consider this virus might just be with us for a long time anyway, and if not, another one, so whatever we do isn't working - maybe we need to see it differently.

Sorry, it's @riverflows --- forgot to log out of NM.