I'm reading this super interesting book right now called The Fourth Turning. I encourage anyone interested in American history (or history in general) to read it and properly prepare yourselves for what is to come. @sultnpapper asked me to do a review of this book so that’s what prompted me to write this, very high-level, analysis.
"Turnings" Explained
The four turnings each last 20-22 years. Together, they create a full cycle of 80-90 years. These individual turnings are as follows:
- High - This is the period after a crisis. The country is united in their vision of the future. Collectivism is predominant and individualism is weak.
- Awakening - Individualism begins to reawaken. Institutions are attacked.
- Unraveling - Institutions have weakened, individualism thrives. There is distrust in government.
- Crisis - The era of destruction that ends in war or revolution.
“The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.”― George Orwell
Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe talk about how these same four turnings of American history have repeated themselves over and over again throughout the country’s existence and explain that we're in the fourth/final turning. Each generation within the full 80-90 year cycle has a dominant archetype corresponding to the cycle it was raised in -- High/Prophet, Awakening/Nomad, Unraveling/Hero, Crisis/Artist.
Deciphering Our Current 80-90 Year Cycle
Our current timeline is as follows, and begins in 1945 with the end of World War II. (dates are approximate):
I was born in 1971 so this would place my generation (Gen X) in the nomad archetype. Nomad generations are raised during an awakening, a time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults are passionately attacking the established institutional order (i.e. the hippy generation). Nomads grow up as under-protected children during this awakening, come of age as alienated, post-awakening young adults, become pragmatic midlife leaders during a Crisis, and age into resilient post-Crisis elders.
"Nomad" is an accurate description of me. I’m happiest when I’m traveling, with very few possessions, and experiencing new cultures on a daily basis. Although I get a sense that it’s going to be increasingly difficult to accomplish this in the years to come. My summary here is very high-level and lacking in many of the finer details but upon deep dissection of the individual turnings I think Strauss and Howe may very well be onto something with their theory.
How accurate is your own generational archetype from the list above?
The Fourth Turning was written at the end of the 1990's and I'm surprised about how much they've gotten right about the events that unfolded in the years that followed. They predict a major upheaval between now and 2030, of which I believe we're already running towards.
“If you don't know history, then you don't know anything. You are a leaf that doesn't know it is part of a tree. ”― Michael Crichton
Following the pattern of past events, in this next decade (2020-2030) we can expect one or more of the following: financial collapse; large scale social upheaval which could ultimately lead to civil war or revolution; and/or war with another country or superpower. America has found itself in this fourth "crisis" turning several times before and has always survived and even become a stronger country for it. However, there are no guarantees that this winning streak will continue.
The world is a much smaller place than it was in 1997 when this book was originally written. The internet and ease of global travel have brought us all much closer together. World financial markets are now intricately intertwined. Looking through the lens that our age provides, I believe this generational theory reaches far beyond America’s shores and may apply to the entire developed world.
People, on a global scale, are beginning to think critically and are waking up to the systemic corruption. I’m not referring to “woke culture” here either. This is something altogether different. The truly awakened see through smoke and mirrors and want desperately to throw off their shackles. They realize that the status quo is toxic to its core and doesn’t work for anyone but the very few at the top.
Those who aren't yet awake see anyone who holds a different opinion than theirs as “the enemy”. They dig in their heels, argue and fight with anyone who challenges their belief system (Democrat or Republican). Those who are awake realize they don't have a dog in the fight because they recognize the severe fissures and inadequacies in foundations of both sides of the argument.
For anyone who's interested in history and are looking for a possible road map for the future and a greater understanding of themselves I would highly encourage you to find yourselves a copy of The Fourth Turning read it, then pass it along to your children or younger relatives. Knowledge is undoubtedly power. One thing is for certain, this next decade is shaping up to be one hell of a ride.
With Gratitude,
Eric Vance Walton
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Thank you so much Eric for following through on my request to have you review this book.
Being that I was born in '56 I fall right smack in the middle of the first category of the current 80-90 year cycle (High / Prophet ).
It is interesting the categories the authors have labeled the different ages into. Your grouping seems to fit you very well by your own admission, and I agree with that based on my knowledge of you I've acquired over the nearly three years I've known you.
As for myself and my category; I am not about claim "high" status or "prophet" for me. Although I have gained / discovered quite a bit knowledge just in the last dozen years that has led me to share that information on places like my HIVE blog.
The two quotes you included from George Orwell and Michael Crichton are "spot on" and I encourage anyone reading my comment to go back up into your post and re-read those at least three times. Those are very profound statements that I am a firm believer in.
You know that I study history, American history to be precise, and am constantly uncovering new things that I have missed through the lies and deception of the public education system.
Based on your recommendation I will get this book and read it as time allows and not because I don't trust review; quite the opposite. Your recommendation carries great weight with me because at some point in the future you will reach that #1 category and will have earned the "High / Prophet" status.
Thanks again for taking the time to share this information.
Sult
You're welcome, @sultnpapper! I thank you for prompting me to do it because I feel like I know the material much better than I would've if I just read the book. I should write reviews on all of the profound books I read. I think the messages will stay with me for life now.
Here's the definition of the Prophet archetype in full detail: Prophet (Idealist) generations enter childhood during a High, a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-Crisis era, come of age as self-absorbed young crusaders of an Awakening, focus on morals and principles in midlife, and emerge as elders guiding another Crisis. Examples: Transcendental Generation, Missionary Generation, Baby Boomers.
I enjoy digging for quotes to pair with articles. It feels like panning for gold and waiting for the shine of a nugget to catch the sunlight. These quotes definitely did that for me. There's one I love from George Carlin that almost made the cut too, "That's why they call it the American Dream, because you have to be asleep to believe it.”― George Carlin. I hate to be that cynical sometimes but....
I've learned so much about true history from reading your posts. Your passion for digging for the truth is a rare thing nowadays. A lot of folks are just happy to remain blissfully ignorant, going about their routines and consuming stuff while the country and their freedoms crumble around their feet. Educating people is about the best thing we could be doing right now as human beings and I thank you for playing a role in that.
Hope you had a great weekend! I got out on a 15 mile bike ride yesterday and felt like a million bucks the entire rest of the day.
Fifteen miles of peddling sounds like an extreme workout to me but merely a warm up ride for you. Glad you were able to get out and enjoy the new wheels.
Thanks for the detail explanation of my age group, I wouldn't say it fits me like a glove but an over sized mitten for sure.
I haven't done a book review since I was in high school but I believe that when just reading "to read" some things might not seem as important as when you are counted upon to give a report on what you read. There seems to be the need to do more evaluation while taking in what we read when writing a report or review.
Have a great week Eric and stay safe.
Thanks, the wheels made a huge difference. I find I ride faster knowing that I can stop now. Lol.
You're welcome! I'm sure so many factors come into play with each individual that the generational archetypes are more of a generalization for some.
I hope you have a good week too, Sult! Protests and looting have all but disappeared here in the last few weeks and we're doing pretty well on keeping the virus under control but there's a 4000% spike (yes, 4000%) in crime in our neighborhood. Carjackings, robberies, and muggings. 2020, never a dull moment.
Speaking of COVID, did you see this story that just broke a few days ago? How in the world is this just getting out now?
I didn't see that story but thanks to you I read it just now. I will tell you, since very few people read the comments, my wife has a childhood friend that became a doctor and works for the CDC in Atlanta. My wife said her friend rarely puts stuff up relating to her work but a few days ago she put up some report on COVID and the date on the report was February 2019. That isn't a typo it was Feb 2019.
My wife decided she need to screen shot that and show it to me but when she went back to do it on BookFace (intentional by the way) it had been taken down and she replaced it with some other report from May 2020. I trust that my wife saw what she saw mainly because she knew I'd be "most interested" in that being dated a full year in advance of when it basically sprung up on us.
You folks are real achievers up there in your neighborhood, a 4000% increase has to be some sort of record. I know, bad humor, but sometimes I can't help myself. Good to hear that things are settling down.
You have a great week and stay safe.
Sult
Nothing surprises me anymore. My brother had a theory that the mysterious "vaping illness" that hit last summer/fall was actually Covid-19. There is some much deception going on. I really fear for this country in these next few years.
It's insane up here. It's actually the first time in my life I've considered getting a concealed carry permit. For now both the wife and I are keeping pepper spray on us at all times. These are mainly 12-17 year old kids doing the crimes and it's highly organized, according to the police. I think the gangs are using these young kids because they know they'll just get a slap on the wrist if they're caught and be back out on the streets in a few days. I'm ready to move someplace far, far away.
Hope the week is going smoothly! Take care my friend.
That’s some heavy shit stuff my friend!
It certainly is!
That book really opened my eyes. I am glad you enjoyed it!
I thank you for the recommendation, Randy! It's one of the top three books I've read in my life and really altered my view of the country. After reading this I totally understand why you made the move. I wish I could too but I'm unsure if it will ever happen at this point. I hope you and the family are good. I know you're excited about your future in Prague.
Wow, this looks like a really interesting read. Probably a bit too heavy for me though. I have a hard time getting myself to read even light stuff. By the time I finished it, we would probably be out of the crisis! It is interesting how spot on this seems to be.
It was fabulous, @bozz. I hear you, it's hard for me to find time for reading these days but there are certain books that grab me and this was one of them. You can get a very good summary of the book in about 15 minutes from its wiki page. The authors' assessments of the generational cycles are unbelievably accurate.
Very interesting!
Love the Michael Crichton quote. The Fourth Turning is definitely an interesting take on the cycles of history and it really does look like we're due for a bumpy ride after a long period of relative stability. I hope we come out the other side without the systemic corruption in a more decentralised and resilient world.
Thanks, I like that one too. It makes so much sense that generational archetypes are driving the historical patterns we see throughout time. It don't think it's totally "cut and dry" though. Taking the hippy movement of the 1960's, for example. Not all people who grew up in that generation were part of the counter-culture movement but the voices of the ones who were had their voices amplified by the media attention. All indicators are pointing to a volatile period in this next decade. Like you, I hope we arrive at a more equitable and decentralized world. I feel that blockchain and smart contracts could play a very important role in turning that dream into reality. Future generations of humanity would be better off for it. Thanks for the comment!
Thank you for the book , calculation is on point from Agenda 21 to 30
You’re very welcome! Almost everything in the physical world is cyclical.
I am part of that nomadic generation that will surely feel that this crisis has broken its wings, stolen its heaven! I must tell you that I am a lover of history. Although the book talks about the history of the United States, it would be interesting to know more about the perspective that these authors assume and that you have been able to synthesize. In my literature classes, for example, sometimes I have to talk about the history of Venezuela and one of the things I "stress" to them is that as long as young people don't know their history, anyone can invent one for them and if they don't know about their past, they are destined to repeat it. For example, the crisis we lived through in the 90s of total disbelief and much individuality, made us look for the figure of the hero, who was a military man. At the beginning of the last century, Venezuela had military dictatorships that did a lot of damage to our country, but apparently nobody remembered that when they elected Chavez. At this moment, the history books used in schools are full of facts that are lies, made up, only to be eternalized in power. They are brainwashing our young people. They are erasing history and they are building one, at their convenience. Excuse me for going on about my commentary. You stepped on a key that is extremely important to me. Thank you for the opportunity to get to know this book. Hug and nice Monday, Eric!!! <3 ;)
It makes me so sad that my wife and I won't be able to travel overseas. It looks like it could be 2022 before Americans can go to any EU country. Although The Fourth Turning is about American History in general the authors' generational theory would apply to any developed nation I think.
It certainly sounds like Venezuela is repeating a past cycle. It's so good that you educate your students about the importance of history. You never know, it could be one of them someday who prevents a similar mistake from happening in the future. Our public education system here in the US has been dumbed down horribly in the last 50 years. The curriculum has shifted to teach our students how to pass pointless standardized tests and away from teaching them anything useful or of substance. The result of this dumbing down is the circus we're seeing today. I was educated in the public school system and with the exception of a few passionate teachers I don't feel like I received anywhere near what would be considered an adequate education. College was a little better but most of my deep knowledge was acquired by my own pursuit.
They say "the victors write the history books" and that is the total truth. Those in power try to spin the historical narrative in their favor time and time again all around the world, the brainwashing you speak of is happening almost everywhere. These days (and probably always) it's up to the individual to seek out the truth. Unfortunately, most people are too distracted to give the truth the time of day.
No need to apologize for the long response. I'm always thrilled to have comments from engaged readers. I wish you a great week, Nancy!