Alone in the vacuum

in LeoFinance11 days ago

I don't have a trader mentality. I have tried building one, but I tend to have more of a hodl mindset than a continual buy and sell process. Ideally, I have looked to find a hybrid approach, which I am taking and improving, but it definitely doesn't feel natural for me and then, I am also quite conservative, even though I am trying to be more risk-seeking in my investment. I currently have somewhere around 15% of my total value in farms, which I think is probably a little too much and it is getting uncomfortable, so I will hold my position here, hodl what I harvest and cross fingers that it all plays out well.

Last night with friends, we were talking about how much wealth is held in crypto and saying how rare it is to have "success stories" on Hive where people have bought houses or something significant from their activity. It has made some people, especially the early miners and active accounts, substantial amounts and possibly tens of millions of dollars, but for the most part, these accounts are anonymous/ pseudonymous and they are "unknowns" - making their success stories far less valuable within the community or externally for marketing. Marketing requires real people.

But then, this level of financial success on Hive is unlikely for content creators alone - where for example, someone like me had zero investments prior to joining four years ago. While I have more (in crypto) now, it isn't exactly going to pay my house off (at these prices) and if I did do that, I would have no stake left.

While we all want the value of HIVE to go up and there to be more people coming into the Hive ecosystem platform, we also don't tend to want to have that happen by propelling users and creating Hive celebrities. Imagine a scenario where an account of a human face was heavily supported to the point that they were earning hundreds of thousands or millions in HIVE a year and they were willing to appear in local magazines and news, slowly spiraling out into more public appearances, pushing Hive as their success story, their lottery win. This would generate a great deal of interest in the platform and as that built, more people would be able to do the same.

However, it is impossible to do because no matter the potential value they might bring in taking that approach, the community will never provide that level of support (at these prices at least) to an individual content creator. Firstly, there would be far too much contention on who that should be and then because of the level of support, they would be met with a lot of the rewards returned to the pool for redistribution.

As much as it would be brilliant to have "Hive stars" - perhaps it is better that it is a far slower, organic process in their development, rather than an engineered strategy to market a Hive personality. Perhaps it is also healthier for the distribution in general, as once there are true Hive celebrities, there will be far less opportunity to earn HIVE on content, as the competition will turn increasingly professional. This might not matter too much, as the goal is of course to monetize the second-layer also, not just the infrastructure.

This is something a lot of people also forget in terms of the future of Hive as a platform, what is needed is good governance that is driven by improving the ecosystem from the ground up, the Hive Blockchain up. Part of that governance is incentivizing holding Hive and actively improving the ecosystem, so I see that just like witness earnings, over time there will be continuing shift to rewarding stake, not content. This will take years, but I suspect that at some point in the future, earning stake through content will be hard, so buying it might be the only option.

As I see it, at some point, there will be a consolidation of liquid Hive into staked Hive, because the incentive to do so will be higher than the incentive to keep selling, if all the stake came back onto the platform today, the draw on the reward pool would change significantly, but hopefully, so would the value of HIVE in the market place. There has been talk in the recent past about stopping rewards altogether on Hive, but I don't think that will happen for quite a few years to come.

Which means, that while no individual is likely to be able to become a massive Hive celebrity in the short term, least of all the people who are anonymous, there is the potential for many people to earn a stake for the future. However, there is obviously always a lot of sell pressure on the markets, especially from all that early mine HIVE that is still floating about. I am not sure if it was 200 or 250 million HIVE in the initial mine, but even with the current rewards over the last 5 years from the pool, the majority of HIVE in the supply is from the first weeks of the blockchain, that went into a very small group of hands.

Since those times, a lot of the HIVE mined has changed hands however, so it can be very different kinds of people owning it, including myself, who has been probably buying some of it off exchanges for years. While a high price of HIVE is desirable, the platform itself requires strong staking mindset as well, where people are willing to forgo the short price for long-term participation, where as infrastructure owners, the value of their HIVE and earning potential is correlated to the health of the second-layer ecosystem and marketplaces for content and tokens that are built upon it.

This is also why it is vital to build the infrastructure well, as having a lot of people in houses on the ground becomes very unhealthy, if the pipes below do not carry fresh water in and waste water out of the ecosystem. A community needs more than buildings to live in, they need tools to use with and places to work and in order to provide sustainability, there has to be the infrastructure layers that everything is built upon.

The people who build the infrastructure are not celebrities and while people can name highly paid Instagram stars, I can't imagine many people for example, knowing the founders of Instagram off the top of their head. Without the platform, there is no star.

However this isn't to undermine the value of content, because content on Hive is highly valuable, because it becomes part of the usecase for being in the Hive community in the first place, to be part of the ecosystem. And I suspect that the people who get this, are also likely the ones who are powering up what they can, despite their IRL life positions - because they recognize that content isn't enough, support is needed.

Sustainability takes time to develop, it takes thought, as well as trial and error, but most of all, it takes people who are willing to ride it out, rather than those who are going to chase short-term ROI constantly. The challenge is that the short gains can be so high for an individual, that they are willing to lose the long view where sustainability of economy is available for many. 100% into maximum gains, nothing left to support the growth of the ecosystem. It can be fine for an individual that makes it, because they can skip from stone to stone, but nothing of consequence ever gets built and the majority will continually suffer - I think we have seen how it all turns out - because that is what happens in the general economy now.

Perhaps in here are some other reasons as to why I don't have a trader mentality either. Traders can operate in a vacuum of self, not worrying about anyone else in the market as they are all unknowns and they can see themselves as "self-made" without realizing that in order for their trades to have any value at all, community of millions of people over lifetimes have had to build everything they ever use. Their opportunity, has come at the cost of another persons investment of some kind. I see Hive like this, where one piece of the ecosystem is impossible without many of the others aligning to bring it all together, to form the relationships needed to give it the potential to exist and have value.

Nothing of value exists in a vacuum, except for the space to build something.

[ Gen1: Hive ]

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I was thinking about this the other day, what made steem so mainstream in the beginning is the stories of $10,000 posts.

I think we should pick a day, pick a random content creator out of a group of committed hivers such as you, and then have whales vote his post.

Do that once or twice. Then pick someone with external influence (even if this person didn't show commitment to hive) and drop the 10k bomb again.

If we do this to small youtubers, word will start spreading out. Then bigger youtubers will start posting again, and we just had the most successful marketing campaign without using any of the DAO funds. Obviously this would just be temporary for marketing purposes otherwise it would get ugly.

and they can see themselves as "self-made" without realizing that in order for their trades to have any value at all, community of millions of people over lifetimes have had to build everything they ever use

That's a one sided view. A successful speculator provides capital to a project which needs it to grow before the market admits it is a valuable project. Without speculators there wouldn't be people building on hive, because it's expensive.

If a speculator constantly provides capital to businesses/cryptos that are not valuable, then he's going to lose money in the long run and his influence on market will diminish. However, a good speculator is rewarded for his early contributions in the long run.

By extension, an entrepreneur is the ultimate speculator. He puts all his eggs in one basket, his company/project and owns all the shares. If he provides a lot of value to people, then he will sell a lot and has the potential to be extremely rich.

A true entrepreneur doesn't start with lots of capital and works. But some just hire people and own the company, and don't do the most valuable parts of the job.

I think we should pick a day, pick a random content creator out of a group of committed hivers such as you, and then have whales vote his post.

A few years ago, this precise initiative was planned based on a couple posts I made, but was unable to get organized. I think it would be interesting to do the once a week thing - get some whales and a couple of the curation initiatives to target a great post, ramp it up and time it with a marketing campaign.

It would get ugly if the same person or group keeps getting it, but if it is done with care, it might be like the "Awesome Hive Post Lottery" :)

That's a one sided view.

Yeah, I knew as I wrote it :)

Entrepreneurs are a rare breed, true entrepreneurs even rarer. It is hard for many to take that risk from nothing but an idea and make it happen or, be willing to fail in the attempt. Some do it from necessity, some choice. I am not a risk taker, but took a risk to start my business because it was the only way that I was going to be able to get the kind of job I am qualified for and interested in, as well as a salary over the poverty line. It took a few years of work to get over that line :)

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I wish I could tag comments as "seen - get back to later" so that you could see the status too and I can get a reminder when I get back to the keyboard. For now though - this'll do - gotta run :)

Great points here. I think many of us can remember what happened back during the bid bot days when several accounts were making a huge amount in rewards. People started joining in large numbers (myself included) and then when things took a small downturn they all jumped ship. I think slow organic growth is the much better option.

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This is definitely part of the issue with the large rewards, as people join for them and very quickly expect them - I heard one account the other day (new) got curated by ocd and then when their next post wasn't was disappointed. once people get a taste, they don't want to go back. We just need to make Hive so valuable that a lot of people can have a taste of something.

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I was very clear to my worker who I just onboarded that the rewards would be like that. A lot of people get these huge rewards for their introduce yourself post and then their dreams get dashed when their next couple of posts do horrible. We have all been there I think!

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I don't have a trader mentality. I have tried building one, but I tend to have more of a hodl mindset than a continual buy and sell process.

That makes the two of us. Sometime last year in March the btc fell I bought btc @ $4000. I wasn’t using the money so I just kept it there (about $50 dollar worth of btc). By this time my money has increased more than 1000%. Now I have about $750 dollars worth of btc

Not a bad return - do you wish you'd bought 100 instead? :)

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Yeah I did really. But that was all I had to invest at that moment.

I made an outstanding discovery over the last Easter period. I wrote about it on my blog. You could see it here
I started the holding of coins apparently 3 year back and I also made some decent profits this year

There has been talk in the recent past about stopping rewards altogether on Hive, but I don't think that will happen for quite a few years to come.

wouldn't that kill Hive? without the possibility of earning by creating/ curating content wouldn't hive pretty much turn into another facebook and lose its main appeal? That seems like a massive step jump backwards from current Hive?

He means author and curation rewards paid out in the main tokens. There'd be Hive-Engine tokens. I think that's very harmful idea. It would lead to the centralization of stake because then witness rewards would dominate the reward pool. The current top 20 witness pool would become set in stone.

I see. I agree- I don't like this idea at all.

I think it pretty much is anyway - there is very little movement now. However, I think that 5 years down the track - or ten - the inflation pool will be significantly smaller also, so it would also limit any potential to grow stake, even if there are author rewards. all other things staying constant like HBD etc (you know what I mean) - when inflation hits 1% a year, there will only be about 6.5M Hive printed in the first year after. Even if 1 account could capture all of it, it wouldn't make a significant difference in the witness voting.

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This is why I've been telling people to look for good witnesses outside of the current top 20 to keep things interesting. I think the lack of changes is mostly due to lack of interest on part of the majority of stakeholders in the matter.

You can bet on it that if someone just outside of the to 20 gets the impression that he or she has a real chance of getting into the top, they will be motivated to start doing interesting things.

No, unless the second-layer isn't developed first. This isn't a short-term position.

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Thank you for this! You have inspired me to stake more of my hive, heh.

Well, at least some people are crazy enough ;D

I stake more or less everything I earn with rewards... 😎

I have mostly done the same. I used to take some off to trade and earn then bring back, but I have enough off now to do so witohut trading much from earnings.

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Good to you. I'm not there ... yet ... 😎

I too had similar conversations with friends and the only question I get at last is how much I will earn. Though we all are here to earn but it does not happen over night. I have been in the platform for close to 3.5 years and whatever Hive currency I have got is all because of patience which I have shown towards the platform.

Now I can say the same thing for Crypto as a whole, I have friends who had already created so much money that they can retire any day all because of crypto because they have taken that kind of risk. So yes anything is possible, you just have to play your cards well.

There are reasons that most people are poor in the world, part of it is, people want the big win fast. Many want that big win with very little risk or personal input.... they have investing confused with the lottery.

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I'm a total hodler. I buy when low, and hodl until there's a major increase, sell and smile.

I once tried the get in and get out kind of trading, but the loss brought me to tears.
I've missed reading your content. Love it as always.

I buy when low, and hodl until there's a major increase, sell and smile.

This is the way I generally operate - I can't do the daily thing for small percentages - firstly, i just don't have the time.

I once tried the get in and get out kind of trading, but the loss brought me to tears.

It can hurt.

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You cannot, in fact for me the content is the foundation pillar that sustains us here and allows us to share ideas and thoughts,
Well, we do not know how everything will end if I want to pay my house with hive but it is not yet the time I think we are going slowly and again as the taskmaster says we have to learn to see our investment in the very long time in about 10 years or more, There we will see the true fruits, those who only see the short term will never advance on the right path.
Well, I think that we have stars here only that they are not visible as you say, I do not know if he met Bernie jaaaaaaaaaaaaa I doubt not or the great marky also another star behind a mask protecting his identity and with good reason that is important for the People do not know how much this can grow and there are already cases of crime that have come to attack wanting your keys this is very normal and will continue to increase, therefore it is also good to be prepared to protect yourself in a problematic case, I do not know what will happen when The crime comes this way where everyone knows who you are and you find them on the street and they tell you, go there Tarak, force him to give us his master key for hive, then that is where anonymity serves a little, imagine there in Venezuela or here in Central America where crime is the order of the day it is good to take precautions, but hey greetings
Best regard.

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Everything of value takes time to develop in an economy and if it is to last, it takes even more time.

Bernie used to flag me near daily for months - the trick is, don't care. :)

The thing with the crime and targeting is the same whether on Hive or running a successful business - people who want it, know who has it. It doesn't matter that much whether the face is see on social media or not.

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I agree buying and selling is not easy to get to grips with when you are thinking to buy and hold. The trading group I follow said something the other day and it made sense. 50% of your portfolio should be the main coins like BTC and ETH, followed by two classes of alts (good ones and less valued shit ones) which at the end of the day are there to make you more BTC and ETH. I think differently as Hive in their eyes would be a shit one yet we can see the potential of the possibilities further down the road.

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A lot of the trading groups are only looking at BTC and Eth for price increases - but what they are yet to realize that the industry really requires many, many tokens for different uses. People who maximize bitcoin as the only worthy coin are hurting the industry - it is like having the first business in the world being a car manufacturer and never creating any other business at all.

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Yes I see it like that as well and value is in ever token/coin with a genuine use case. Many of the DeFi products I look at and think WTF is this as they have no value other than the farming. Some may have use cases but many of them can't.

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I don't have a trader mentality at all either. I do have a future vision of my Hive Stake and of use for my Hive Stake. I like entertainment. A lot of entertainment is controlled by the powers that be, who ever they are. I want to be one of those Powers that be. I want to have enough Stake so that if a movie director or an artist or an entertainer approached me with an Idea I liked I could back that project with daily votes that they could convert to funds to make their project a reality.

Kind of like how I always vote on the IBT post.

I want to be one of those Powers that be.

I think this is what people should be aiming for - where we all be having power decentralized, rather than in the hands of a few.

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It really is an opportunity for people to go solo or band together for things they want to see become reality. I have been following the Survival Island (@lordnigel) game developer and voting on all their post, because it looks like a game I would enjoy. Imagine if enough people were voting to where he was getting a steady stream of $100.00 a day in votes or more he might be able to hire a helper or two or get new equipment.

I think a lot of people over look how much power they can have to make a positive difference.