When I started on Hive, I was in a pretty bad financial position and while the immediate circumstances were not my fault, my (in)ability to deal with them was. It wasn't that I had been completely complacent in my preparation for life either, it is just that I had underestimated how much I would need and didn't factor anywhere close to the worst case financial scenarios and rather - assumed that everything was going to be pretty okay instead.
There is a good reason I tend to look a lot longer now and am far more "pessimistic" about the future, as in my experience, it generally is better to prepare more for the worst than the best, and my optimistic nature doesn't lend its weight to doing that well. So, I am far more cautious in my appraisals, but ironically, this has also made me much more risk-seeking in my approach.
I believe that this is because that whilst in the past I felt I was "playing it safe" by not risking to invest, what I was actually doing was taking the riskiest path of investing and generating nothing on what I was earning. So, I ended up living hand-to-mouth with the belief that things will improve, but not actually taking significant steps toward actually having an improved outcome.
It is strange to look back on life at that time as I think that I was "happier" in moments but in general, faced far more stress, worrying about much smaller amounts and where to find them. This doesn't mean that I have "made it" in any way, but over the last five years I have adjusted the way I look at the future and affected real change in the way I prepare for it now. This means that even though I do not use my crypto holdings to live my life, I have been able to change my economic outcomes with what I have.
This in a large part is by recognizing that the work I was doing to make ends meet was not going to be enough to ever be much more than that. Saving more would of course help, but there are only so many things that can be cut, so the only real way forward was to increase earnings. This meant getting a second job to provide additional income and it was this that allowed me to extend my inflows so that I could invest a little more and most importantly, not use any portfolio value to live my life.
So, while now things are looking okay, a great deal of my financial future lays in a lot of uncertainty and volatility of the cryptosphere, which I don't mind as I am quite bullish, but I also have to remember "the worst case scenarios" of what if it all collapses.
The best scenario is easy of course as you know, the crypto markets go 20x and never drops lower than that again and I am able to live as a wealthy person, taking a multitude of income streams from all kinds of digital assets - but, is that likely?
Yes
Well, there is likely and there is "likely" and it is the latter in my belief system that is so bullish on the future of crypto. However, I have thought of many best case scenarios in my past experiences that haven't come to fruition, so what if this is the same? I think this is a fear that most people have in crypto, as the market fluctuations happen and things go up fast and then drop back and sideways for a long time - Is it dead?
So what if it fails?
Have you thought about what you will do?
So many people I have talked to on Hive have used the line of "I need HIVE earnings to live" but I wonder then both what they were doing before Hive and what they would do after Hive if it happened to fail. These earnings are definitely not guaranteed and relying on votes for income is a fickle business, as it will eventually shift, no matter what you produce, because people's tastes change or, something shinier takes their attention.
If a person has to live off Hive and that means they aren't investing into their own financial wellbeing if Hive doesn't provide, I believe they are in for a world of hurt eventually. If people have learned anything in their time here, I think it should include that taking responsibility and ownership over oneself is vital, which means not relying on the rewards as a stable source of income.
I want to live with, not off Hive
Rewards are rewards not a salary after all, and because they are provided by many individuals based on stake, they are always going to be unreliable. There are no contracts here to say a person should get anything at all and even if the votes come on a post, they are in "negotiation" until that post pays out. Actually, the HIVE and HBD on rewards doesn't really exist until that payout time, it is just an "earmark" for the potential to get it. At payout however, it comes out of the pool and gets placed into a wallet to become owned by an account - whether it is from creation or curation.
I have heard people say that for instance, a downvote is like "taking money out of someone's wallet" - it is not. However, the HIVE rewards pool is very much like a shared wallet where people who have stake are in a constant discussion about what to spend it on. with the people with the most stake, having the option to spend the largest proportion of the pool. But, a massive amount of value is being distributed very widely, as regardless of the whale votes, all people have a stake-based share to allocate here or there and can spread their votes out.
What you will find though, is the people who complain the most about downvotes are also the ones who have been complaining the most about not getting upvotes and, selling the most of the Hive they get. Funny eh? They complain about not getting support, but don't support anyone themselves. You will also find that the people who consistently get support, are often those who do support others and projects in the ecosystem. This is not a bright line however, there is plenty of blur in play.
Blur is opportunity
But, Hive aside, most people here also have fingers in other pies of various shapes, sizes and flavors - but I wonder what happens to most people if the entire crypto scene failed and went to zero overnight. What would people do to survive?
I know for me, it would suck because I have invested into this industry with the intention of being able to use it as my main source of investment return in the future, but my day to day life is supported entirely by my IRL activity. So "nothing changes" in the present, but nearly my entire economic future preparations are wiped clean and I will have to start from scratch. Again.
I don't want to start from scratch
How many times in our lives can we start from scratch before we learn to build foundations for ourselves so we don't have to ever start from scratch? It seems many. Now, I am not predicting the failure of crypto and actually see it as a relatively safe bet on the future of the economy and where value will be derived, but I am definitely "narrowly invested" as far as the foundation of my portfolio is concerned.
but, what else are we meant to do when the economy we are "meant to be investing into" has headlines like this:
This is a global issue and is entirely due to the mismanagement of the economy and the prevalence of centralized greed in the system, of which I have almost no staked say in at all. This means that other than my ability or inability to consume, I am a passenger of the global economy, not an agent within it. Why would I even consider trying to build ownership for myself in a system that is designed to crush me to become a renter?
The apocalypse isn't the collapse of the economy as we know it, it is its collapse without having an alternative economy to take its place. As I see it, if "crypto fails" we are screwed in ways that are going to turn the world as we know it into a global warzone, with the average people crushed between the centralized powers as they grapple for control - like we have been so many times before in the past.
For the first time though, we get the opportunity to do differently and support a change in the processes that is aimed at improving the world for us, by building an economy that doesn't encourage economic crush and subsequent violence. By stepping outside of the centralized economy and building foundations and structures to house a new type of system that allows for the stake of the people to have a voice instead, *we mitigate the potential damage that those currently in control can do, by making them increasingly irrelevant and, taking away the income they need to finance their control mechanisms.
It is interesting that while they fight over borders to constrain populations for profit, we are making what they fight over largely irrelevant. WE might very well fail to reach a better outcome and could be crushed in the process, but I believe it is better to live doing something believed in, than die trying to survive under another's impossible rule.
The health of the current economy is impossible, because it only caters for the minority to benefit and, incentivizes the continual reduction of that minority until there is only one with supreme power and ultimate control. Do you think at that point, the system will be benevolent to its subjects?
Perhaps it is better to,
Fail attempting something great, than succeed doing something meaningless.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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I aknowledge, that I will be in a world of hurt if crypto fails.
There are one or two scenarios where crypto will inevitably fail. Global nuclear war, and perhaps some kind of quantum computer.
Anyhow I have a hard time thinking of any other scenario than nuclear war quite as devastating for all cryptocurrencies. Super volcanoes maybe?
Super volcanoes could be a thing :)
I see it much the same, which is an interesting thing to consider for those who are selling all they can to survive in the current economy. Seems to me they might be backing the wrong horse.
Only way crypto goes to zero is if the internet stops. That happens, and my few ounces of silver I have tucked away, make me King of the neighbourhood.
I agree with this. If it did stop - we likely have bigger issues to contend with - silver or no silver :)
Or the target of the neighborhood.
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There are a lot of financial foundations that people can build for themselves, but when building foundations for them all nothing is really accomplished. One foundation at a time, get it built, let it solidify, then move to the next.
After reaching my 10,000 HP goal I feel I have a strong Hive foundation, one that is going to provide for support. I do feel sorry for the people that do not or have not invested in themselves on Hive by powering down most of their earnings as soon as they get it instead of letting it ride powered up.
That $1.00 Hive reward they powered down in Jan. would be worth so much more today had hey let it ride and instead of a cup of coffee they could have a very nice dinner.
congratulations on hitting 10,000 HP
I've always been of thinking that powering up in the blockchain and staking is an important thing to do in order to gain another stream of support or income. Slow and steady wins the race.
I would never begrudge those people that continuously power down in order to exchange it for fiat for their daily needs. In my country I have seen firsthand how people have lived a hard hand to mouth existence and while it may look selfish that they would not invest it is something that they cannot think of because they are busy trying to silence their hungry bellies.
Having never powered down has afforded me to ba at almost at the target I set out when I was still active when everything transferred to Hive and me deciding to power down on Steem and not cross-post yielded me some dividends that I was able to make use in investing in some Play to Earn platforms that provide another stream of income.
Lately I have been active again which some members thought it was because of the recent spike in Hive value but it is more tied to my mental state as writing has always been an outlet.
At this point I don't think that cryptocurrency is going away or even failing as now even big corporations and some countries has adopted it.
In a way Crypto was the internet before that some people thought would be just a novel idea between geeks and the military but now we can't even imagine not having the connectivity that the internet brings.
I do not think it is wrong to power down and use the proceeds for living. I do think that the excuse of I need hive to live on is a very short sighted excuse. Prior to a person finding hive they had no Hive so at that point they did not need it to live on.
Having found Hive if they left the auto powered up potion alone, they would be much better off 2 years later, the 50% that is not auto powered up would be a lot more if they had left the auto powered up powered up. Instead of a cup of coffee they could be buying a lot of food for the pantry and eating at home.
I think the people that give the advice to always power down are wrong. I also do not think it is necessary for people to power up everything. Once the rewards are powered up I do think people should use it as the savings base, a person vote power will grow as they power up thus providing more curation rewards, and thus more food on the table.
During on and off periods of mine I move delegations and power up rewards while moving some to hedge and do some minor trading to increase value. Nothing big but satisfying to see your fund grow.
I got surprised with my Splinterland stakes though but had not rented out cards before times of hiatus but now I have done some of those for incremental earnings. Each penny count!
Those that completely powered down and did not utilize Hive really missed out on something.
It is good that I saw how it could be a long-term haul rather than short-term returns.
Onward and upward!
You are right - I was told recently about the "lie of diversification" - as it is better to invest narrow in what is the most likely to pay off.
I was som happy to see you reach that last week! Don't feel sorry for them - when they think they are winning, they are laughing at you.
1 dollar then, 16 dollars now...
I diversified long before I joined
steemitHive and never considered it to be my retirement fund because of the volatility. Honestly, I feel differently now. I don't see how it can fail, but, like anything else, it can, and the best I could do was to pay everything off and work that crypto!It will be hard for it to fail completely I think - but stranger things have happened and, who knows how far some will go to oppress others.
That is the truth, even if it is an ugly truth.
Although I agree we should not count on living offHive I am a complete crypto believer just because is a far better tech than what we have today. That brings to the point that any hive user may be able to diversify and not just in Hive and the many possibilities which offer besides rewards, but also to many other crypto opportunities as DeFi with Cubfinance, play to earn with Splinterlands, or decentralized video hosting with 3Speak.
The market is a living thing but all markets are, and there have always been investors in traditional markets making additional income to their working salaries, crypto can start like that but offering income generation not only from financial yield but also from brain/time/dedication yield.
Overall, to me, the most valuable asset we get from Hive is all the general learning from the crypto space. Starting from Hive-related services to understanding how many blockchain projects and technology works. That alone is a huge advantage to manage your income and to have a competitive advantage for the comming future
Yes - but it isn't there yet (for most people) but many are acting like it is.
THat last bit is exciting, isn't it?
Very strongly! It's a shame that many people behave mindlessly, like zombies, even within cryptocommunities. Bitcoin goes up - I'll go sell everything to get into bitcoin for the whole bundle of money! Bitcoin is going down - oh my god, we've all been duped...).
I think you bring enlightenment to many aspects of cryptocurrency, economics and psychology. We need articles like this!🙏👍
It is interesting how many people are all in or all out, as if they don't have any faith in what they actually invest into.
Yes, herd instinct, which is used by a select few, until you yourself understand what it's all about))
I like your analysis a lot and personally I have a lot of fun on Hive, I am one of the privileged who already has a fixed salary as a professor and I can understand some users who are out of work or have lost it. But I wonder: if they have the skills they put them into practice on Hive, current affairs articles, latteratura, crypto analysis, art and so much more. There is a lot of people ready to support them and vote for their (original) content. So instead of feeling sorry for themselves or railing against downvotes, they started studying TRUE and Interesting content.
I continue to have fun and make art in my life, and Hive always inspires me to do better.
Greetings to you Taraz.
(I always like to read you when I'm not painting)
The first thing to do to earn off crypto in the future, is make sure you don't need it now.
I think they are bitter for the most part that their "intelligence" hasn't factored in how to deal with people in a win-win scenario. If they did, they'd likely do better.
You are always a welcome contributor here :)
Fiat economy is as likely to collapse as anything else at this stage x_x
and that would probably be worse
On the bright side I"m not sure crypto can really collapse now (the entire idea of the thing, obviously coins can come and go).
Unless the lich figures something out XD
Yes - but that is okay, because the narrative is owned by those in power - so we won't have to hear about how it is destroying us :)
Call me a deluded optimist, but I really don't see how it could fail. The idea of crypto has made its way into human consciousness, and continues to spread. No matter how bad the situation gets, the idea will remain.
I don't think it can fail unless there is something truly cataclysmic that happens to society - but it is still worth considering and asking "if it isn't likely to fail, why am I holding back my investment?"
I think it's a combination of fear of the unknown and an emotional attachment to the old system. I am focused on the trend and the number of people going "all in" keeps increasing.
I would add that it is also because the current economic climate has made people less caring about consequences.
Downturn yes, maybe that’s a healthy thing in the long term. Completely fail? I agree with you on that point, it’s not going to happen.
No matter. I will keep powering up HIVE as today. However, it is clear that it would be disappointment for those who have to live off HIVE. For this reason, I hope the price of HIVE will remain between $1-$3 for a while.
between 1- 25 would be nice - we have the ! already - just need to test the 25 to see how that goes ;D
A stable price of hive around 5$ would be perfect for newcomers to feel the power of rewards and it will get them going right from the beginning. I want hive price to move in a consistent manner and not just test the $25 or $20 and then fall back to $3 or $2 (it would be so demotivating TBH)
It is demotivating in some way - but also very exciting! When the price moves up, the atmosphere changes remarkably. Personally, I would like a hard shift up and fallback to the 1 or two, before find stability around the five. That way, I can become a whale :)
Oh yes, I got you :)
I am also thinking to invest in buying some hive power when it goes around 1$. Currently figuring it out on starting some crypto content series on my activities resumption after a long time.
Any tips on restarting my journey on hive would be highly appreciated.
That would be crazy :)
I learn to be more logical and more emotionless, atleast try to I tell my self you can live rich like a king and survive poor, haven't made my family mad, there's always work. Sometimes you got a put yourself in your mind of all those things
We have been lied to in this regard - we have been told to "trust our emotions" when they are just reactions based on what they think they understand.
"You called me fat asshole!"
No, I called you "fit" - I have an accent.
Good insight. I'm a believer in the multiple streams of income model. Work, investments, life is cyclical. Business and industry and markets ebb and flow. By not having all of our eggs in one basket we offer ourselves wiggle room and the ability to ride out financial storms.
Wiggle room is important and I think preparing for the future is keeping resources aside for when opportunities arise, there is some wiggle room to take advantage of them. Too many are caught with nothing when they need just a little.
For me, diversifying my income is the key.
Hive blogging is a big part of it, but I'm always keeping an element of external client work, external DeFi yield etc etc.
It's unlikely that Hive goes to shit... but that means there's a chance.
It will hurt, but it won't be the end of the world because I won't let it be.
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I think this is the smart approach
Precisely.
I have been told people earn their living from Hive. It is hard to fathom. I am still at the beginning of all this. I wonder how long I will be saying that..... Amyway, we have to prepare for the future in the nest way that we k ow how. I can't imagine what will happen if things collapse, yet, that is what it looks like in the near future because of the inflation woes coming our way. How can the economy move forward without falling down first thanks to the incompetencies of those ruling right now? I have no doubt it will come back, but I keep waiting for a crash, so we can get on with the years of recovery that will be needed for everything to average out.
THere are quite a few, directly or indirectly through Hive-powered experiences.
Let's just hope there is something to catch us.
Thank you friend @ tarazkp! I got a lot of answers to my questions after reading your post.
:)
really well put. But what do you mean by crypto "failing"? How could all coin go to zero in value? That seems like an impossibility. Also, do we measure success by its value in a fiat currency? or by the value it brings to users? If it is the latter it will always be valuable simply because it is doing something that people want.
@tipu curate
The only way is if everyone using it decided not to use it - this will happen for some as they fear the government reactions - but I think that is the reason to use it more.
In my opinion, the future value has to come through the value it brings to users - not just the trade value on the markets. Or rather, that the trade value is tied more directly to the value to users.
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 61/81) Liquid rewards.
I have been in the blockchain for about 4 years now starting in then Steemit and then disappearing for some stretches of time either because busy working or getting lost in the world of video games when life turns to shit. Video games has always been my form of escapism.
Yet I always go back to Steem and then I transitioned over to Hive when I read the hostile takeover and how Steem - Hive - and Blurt forked and I made a choice to not cross-post as I felt that Hive closely resembles the ideals that I have then.
I have always seen this platform as being able to share ideas and encourage people to adopt and learn more about the technology and its use. From the decentralization of power and knowledge to its economic and social use ( I am still waiting for the blockchain use in electoral votes to if not to completely remove electoral fraud to at least mitigate it to some degree.)
The technology has continued to gain different use case and utilities. One aspect that really caught the attention of people were Play to Earn games like Splinterlands and Axie Infinity. I have a distinct advantage in Splinterlands as I was one of the first pioneers that were active in writing the lores, joining contests, playing the game.
Axie Infinity at the time of the pandemic opened economic doors to a lot of my countrymen as they went full throttle and invested time, money and resources as from simple players it morphed into these so called "academies" and "cooperatives" that created managers and players often called scholars who would split the ingame tokens of SLP. This further created entrepreneurial breeders who saw the demand for the monsters bred their way into thousands of dollars.
At one point it was said that the player base of the game constituted 40% from the Philippines. It was wild.
Then the game updates and nerfs happened and turned a lot of people away that only saw that it put a dent in their profits and investments but did not understand the game mechanics why there are a constant need for balances and changes or else the game will become stagnant. Anyway, that deserves a different kind of analysis.
At this point cryptocurrency and its technology has captured the attention and use of a lot of people that if asked 4 years ago would have said that it is a scam. I have come such a long way from getting duped into get-rich quick schemes and double your bitcoin scams to reading whitepapers and DYOR. It is here to stay.
It should make it near impossible to fraud. Just think how many votes have been cast here, or how many transactions on the bitcoin blockchain - 100% accuracy, even under attack.
I have heard that Axie is making some pretty bad decisions for its older users now - cutting them out and banning "assets" - if they are doing that, nothing on the chain is actually owned by the players - I don't play, but maybe you know.
I don't see BC and crypto going anywhere downhill fast - though the price will fluctuate on the FUD :)
When I was still active in the EOS blockchain that was one thing that we were encouraging to be built and when the idea was presented to some politicians well not surprising they didnt like it hahaha eliminating a possible way to cheat votes would mean death to political families
Yes there have been several seemingly bad decisions that are alienating older users as most people were able to coast through the content and have a guaranteed crypto coin regardless of skill. Specifically, one major change was they needed to maintain a certain level of competitiveness of reaching at least 800 MMR which is like their season rating.
Before that as long as they complete 10 adventures they get 50 Smooth Love Potions and then win 5 PVP matches they will get an additional 25 SLP aside from what they would win during the match. So they are guaranteed at least 75 SLP which at its peak had a value of about 40 cents I think which would give someone at least $30 USD a day for about less than 2 hour grind. Small for first world countries but for a third world country like mine is already x3 compared to the minimum daily wage of an employee who works at least 8 hours.
Then there were the nerfs and balances that happened that completely threw off the meta and dominance of certain types. People were crying that they were being robbed of their investments because of these changes. I understand those changes though but maybe because I still treat it as a game that I earn some crypto unlike some that it has become their main livelihood. It's like someone shitposting and expecting to earn big bucks. There is no free lunch.
Stay away from the FUD hahahha have diamond hands and not get spooked.
At this point I think those that are still in Hive are in it for the long haul.
Short term I’ve switched over to the bearish-side but long term I’m bullish. Earning from blogging? It’s an interesting concept but living off of it opens too many doors for people to churn out LQ content. Correct me if I’m wrong on that point.
You are already turning bearish?
To live off it, low quality won't cut it. :)
In this aspect, what goes around comes around, such people do not care about others in our world today but only themselves they care for and they don't bother rendering that desired assist to others.
Yet, the want more from the community.
I saw some posts with big upvotes from something called appreciator. do you know how that works? is it a manual curation or only people who delegate hp to it are eligible for upvotes?
It is "manual" in as much as they vote the same accounts a lot. I don't know much about it, but they have massive delegations. I don't think I have ever got a vote from them :)
Again, I want to say that, for Hive, I personally think that sky is the limit! :) It's just that it needs regular quality work and productivity! :)
A lot of development and applications to capture new users needs to happen too :)
I take the knowledge, lessons and experience the Hive chain gives me...as well as the rewards. I have a regular job so I try as much as I can to be independent of Hive earnings...sometimes you just can't help but look towards it though.
Even if it fails tomorrow; I'll be devastated yes, but I will also take the lessons and experience and move on
I think taking a bit here and there is fine, but if actually looking for this to be an investment, always keep in mind the future cost of spending now. There is a balance point somewhere :)
A lot of work and therefore I read your wonderful posts only on weekends.
I think your fears are real. In my opinion, the crypt will be banned in China, the USA and Russia, but it will be allowed in other countries.
The countries where there is the most emphasis on controlling the people at any cost are the ones likely to try to ban it.
Many people never take risk in investments always thinking of their loss and failure. As you said, they are unaware of it that not taking risk is itself a biggest risk as you never make any savings and thus live hand to mouth. Life is all about taking risks...
Taking some risks ow can have far less cost than being forced to take them later.
I have been in the blockchain for about 4 years now starting in then Steemit and then disappearing for some stretches of time either because busy working or getting lost in the world of video games when life turns to shit. Video games has always been my form of escapism.
Yet I always go back to Steem and then I transitioned over to Hive when I read the hostile takeover and how Steem - Hive - and Blurt forked and I made a choice to not cross-post as I felt that Hive closely resembles the ideals that I have then.
I have always seen this platform as being able to share ideas and encourage people to adopt and learn more about the technology and its use. From the decentralization of power and knowledge to its economic and social use ( I am still waiting for the blockchain use in electoral votes to if not to completely remove electoral fraud to at least mitigate it to some degree.)
The technology has continued to gain different use case and utilities. One aspect that really caught the attention of people were Play to Earn games like Splinterlands and Axie Infinity. I have a distinct advantage in Splinterlands as I was one of the first pioneers that were active in writing the lores, joining contests, playing the game.
Axie Infinity at the time of the pandemic opened economic doors to a lot of my countrymen as they went full throttle and invested time, money and resources as from simple players it morphed into these so called "academies" and "cooperatives" that created managers and players often called scholars who would split the ingame tokens of SLP. This further created entrepreneurial breeders who saw the demand for the monsters bred their way into thousands of dollars.
At one point it was said that the player base of the game constituted 40% from the Philippines. It was wild.
Then the game updates and nerfs happened and turned a lot of people away that only saw that it put a dent in their profits and investments but did not understand the game mechanics why there are a constant need for balances and changes or else the game will become stagnant. Anyway, that deserves a different kind of analysis.
At this point cryptocurrency and its technology has captured the attention and use of a lot of people that if asked 4 years ago would have said that it is a scam. I have come such a long way from getting duped into get-rich quick schemes and double your bitcoin scams to reading whitepapers and DYOR. It is here to stay.
Great point. Avoiding risk is a risk in itself. We can't avoid risk--just choose which risks are worth it.
Crypto currency is all about patience, you can't make it if you are greed. Once you have patience in Crypto currency you will make it.
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Wow
I read your post with rapt attention and I must say I agree with you. We must have a bouyant financial life outside the platform,it just a way of preparing for the worst. No one prays for the whole system to fold up really,but what happens if the unforseen happens.thanks for this writeup,been following your post lately as a newbie and I must say am getting value from them.
may be late to the party but.. I try to tell a lot off people this same thing.
I guess its a a case of being to psyched up about the crypto space.
You make good points. Upvoted and popularity are fickle, and crypto is volatile. We never know how long it will be good, so we must plan for the future with multiple streams of income.
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