The Glass Ceiling
This is a Splinterlands land related post where I will be reflecting both on my hope and frustration on the eve of a major land update. I am looking forward to the four land cards as described on the official announcement. With this backdrop, I am presenting a critical plot below to start the discussion. We started gathering data for land stats from April this year. Thanks to @beaker007 's tool, we can accurately track how many plots are active in Praetoria. The vertical scale on the plot below is linear and extremely narrow, from 49,200 to 50,400. So, only about 1200 plot range, where the total possible active plots in Praetoria remains at 150,000. So only 31.4 - 32.4 % of plot have been active. We also know that there have been a lot of development in 2025 related to land. And yet, we haven't been growing organically! However, the silver lining is that we are currently at the very top of the range as we are coming up to the new update.
Why the active plots are stagnant (so far)
Phased Development and Incomplete Utility:
The most significant factor is the phased rollout of the Land expansion.
Slow Utility Unlocking: Land was sold in 2021, but its full functionality has been released incrementally. The critical phases that introduce full utility, like creating unique items, spells, and advanced buildings that significantly enhance the main game, have been delayed.
Phase 1.5 introduced basic resource production (Grain, SPS, Research), which is a necessary foundation but might not offer a compelling enough economic return for all land owners to actively manage all their plots.
Then we have Aura (land 1.75), shall I call it sidetrack or a fork? This is to create some immediately sink for all the resources we have created and produce. Then we had Midnight potion, then Wagon Repair Kits, Fortune tickets, etc, all to use Aura. We are still on that ad hoc path with the land cards where we are essentially creating utility to use the resources that we have already produced.
Phase 2 (currently in development, rather will be in development) is expected to introduce over 50 resources and many buildings, which is where the true strategic depth and integration with the main game will occur. Until this phase is fully live, the land's utility is limited.
Complexity and Barrier to Entry:
Even in the current phase (like Land 1.75, which introduced Wood, Stone, and Iron), actively utilizing land requires:
Staking Cards: The right units (cards) need to be staked as workers.
Staking DEC: Dark Energy Crystals (DEC) must be staked for Power Sources.
Resource Management: Players must manage the consumption and production of Grain and other new resources to maintain operations.
This complexity can deter players, especially those with a smaller number of plots, or plots in various regions. Management of scattered plot is complicated as resources are difficult, or expensive to impossible to transfer across regions (like Aura).
ROI Threshold:
For utilization to organically increase to 100%, the revenue generated from an active plot must significantly outweigh the opportunity cost and the cost of operation (staking DEC, buying/staking cards, active management time). If the current resource-to-DEC exchange rate doesn't offer a high enough profit margin for every type of land, some owners may choose to keep their plots idle, waiting for better market conditions or future utility.
Until very recently (in fact still today), most land resources has no real usage. So without utility, there is limited value, and therefore, no or low price! With low price, the ROI is in the dumpster!
Holding for Future Value:
Many land deeds may be held by investors who purchased them primarily for long-term appreciation based on the future promised utility (Phase 2 and beyond), rather than the immediate utility of Phase 1.5. These investors have little incentive to go through the management steps until the land can produce valuable in-game assets (items/spells) or the management process is simplified.
In other words, speculation. If the price appreciation was the only goal to flip the land token for a quick profit, that dream haven't been realized for most. So finally, by 2022 - 23 or even 2024 people started to give up and throw in the towel and sold their plots at whatever cost they can. Even sold the resource produced at whatever cost they can get. With all sellers, both for plots and the resources, the prices tanked!
Even with the current rise of resource and plot prices, they remained highly depressed compared to their expected value.
In summary, the 32% utilization is likely a function of limited current utility compared to the significant effort and cost required to manage it, leading to players/investors actively managing only their most profitable and high-priority plots while waiting for the full game-changing features of Phase 2 to be released.
What is the expected value
Here, I will be speculating. Maybe, I should say, I will be "wishing" here. I must make one thing clear, Land is a ROI passive return game. So it MUST be profitable, otherwise, there is NO USE!
So I am using beaker's new land planning tool to set up a most basic single grain plot, as per the grain prices today. This tool can be found here:
https://land.spl-stats.com/planning
Putting in that exact plot ID listed below: https://splinterlands.com/land/overview/praetoria/48/139735
The cheapest grain plot is currently $15! Boy! They have rallied in price!. I see that cheapest Iron plots are $10. We will stick to grain for this post.
This one does come with BIB, so there is a power core, so no additional price for that
Pelacor Bandit Common Max Regular Foil can still be had for $2.4 for 1 Max copy. So five of them will cost you $12.
Then you must stake 50,000 DEC to activate the plot. At today's price that is $29.34.
Adding I get: 15 + 12 + 29.34 = $56.34
I am a bit off from beaker's calculation, but not by much. Say $60, among friends!
Without any boost, that plot earns 1.013/h, or 24.312/day in DEC. Therefore, $5.23/yr, at todays price of DEC.
ROI is a bitch for volatile assets, especially like DEC, which is currently trading at a discount, but that calculates to an ROI or 5.23/56.34 ~ 9%
If the DEC gets to peg, that could be $8.8 in earning or ~ 15%
Back to the original question: What is the expected value?
I personally like to see the cheapest land to be having at least 20% ROI, sustainable for the whole year, and yes, I didn't forget about castle and keep taxes. I want to see grain prices at least double from here to be comfortable with expected value.
Currently 1000 grain is trading at 20 DEC. I like to see them trading at 40 to 50 DEC to be reasonably comfortable. That is my personal expected value.
Grain is now at the same status-quo-ROI as Stone was 6 months ago. Very impressive how that flipped. I just got another plain after writing my last land post, and am very happy with my set-up so far - because I'm flexible. I turned off stone, but have those cards on other plots. According to the BLT, I'm making 23 DEC/h now, also thanks to a few strategic card buys. But I'm not selling the grain, just hoarding to see what happens with the update. Just like you, I hope for an increase in resource prices. Especially grain. 40-50 would be amazing, then I'd definitely start selling some :-D
Supply and Demand.
Stone wasn't enough for the new aura. So prices were high. To see that people bought a lot of stone plots and brought every possible stone plots online.
Production went to the roof. Price dropped as people were selling excess production just for profit.
Stone price dropped and we created oversupply of stone.
Grain is slightly different as every needs grain. But the same logic applied. We were running a daily deficit of grain since aura came online. Now we are running a grain surplus but still price is going up because market is forward looking. Market sees lots of grain use in immediate future.
Yes, that's exactly what I described about stone. The long term challenge is, like for all resources, to create a big enough sink. Which is beginning with the cards now, hopefully.
Do you think that the bonuses granted by the cards will lead to more price deflation in the long term? For the short term, they'll help, but long term? I see another calculation post coming... 😅
The most powerful plots for the day.
Top plot shows that the total supply of grain steadily decreased throughout the year 2025 from 11.4 B to 9.2 B. This is good capital stewardship, just based on low prices.
Yet, price begin to climb since September this year, post the hint of land cards. Daily production kept on increasing, but demand outpaced supply increase due to speculation for today and beyond.
Now it is the moment of truth!
I'm part of the speculation! 🤑 But yes, maybe it makes sense to start selling at least a little... I'll come up with a plan. And with a way to calculate the impact of land cards. Gotta rush to work now.
I don't know, land just doesn't excite me as a game. I have eleven plots five in one region and six scattered among more regions, I have them all up and running but there is no fun in it for me for some reason.
I guess the original promise of land was that land would be something extra special and it was at a time when we thought that we had 500K+ players and not everyone can even have one plot. I recall single plots selling for $500+ at that time... Then we found out that those 500K players were all bots :( Now that we know that there are so few real players, land plots are not that special and there is an oversupply for our current number of players.
Have you read the book "The Tipping Point"? I think you just haven't reached that point yet. I was just like this in 2024 :)
You just have to find that tipping point...
This is one of the charts I check almost daily — it’s basically the only metric I have pinned to the top bar.
There have been some great features delivered over the past year, and they did increase land usage a bit… but still nowhere near where it should be. We all know the reasons, and we know the upcoming plans, so I’m definitely looking forward to the next updates.
Right now land is still far from its full potential. There are two ways to increase utilization, and I personally prefer the second one:
I want both point 1 and 2, simultaneously.
I agree with you on the complexity. That was really my only issue with land.
Land is a pretty awesome idle game in my opinion. I think when things are fully rolled out it will be possible to onboard more gamers that don't care about ROI and just want to dominate.
Some friendly competition might be a nice way to spice things up!
It is a fair argument that complexity should exist, so does the competition. We have the first, but lacking in the second.
For sure. I think a big chunk of the complexity right now revolves around institutional knowledge. Which I think is a good feature because people who play longer should have an advantage.
If there was more complexity around strategy, I think that could add a “fun” element while encouraging more competitive play.
A quick example I can think of is, if certain cards have combos, where putting fire and dragon cards on the same plot makes them “more powerful” in some way 🤷♂️
I look forward to seeing the future progress on land by SPL team. It’s come a long way!
Since you mentioned Yodin on a different post…
Yodin Zaku was probably still is my all time favorite card.
Yadin Zaku is my favorite trading card of all time. 😊
I don't have a close 2nd and that includes every trading card game I have ever played....and I mean everything, real cards, web 2.0, and web 3.0.
Yeah many of us have been saying that for a long time.
By the way, have you been gone for a bit and now back? By gone, I mean nit writing or commenting much.
I have seen you around. Then the Ray debacle happened!
Yea... at this point the Ray debacle is turning into the never ending story or something.
The short version of the story is, now I believe I should focus primarily on HIVE; there is not a single factor that led me to this decision so it is what I believe now.
I know we had some small chats in SPL discord in the past. For me those discussions were always cordial. Even with some of those discussions becoming quasi debates, I felt like they were sincere conversations so I do appreciate that.
Anyways, it has been a while based on a "crypto timeline," so I figured I would come by and read your blog and see what you have been up to 🙂
Thank you!
I strongly believe that we all should focus on hive as that is the mother ship on which everything is built on.
I am always here and always on Splinterslands. I am here for the long term and with community service in mind. Thank you so much for the visit and the kind words of confidence! Means a lot to me.
Of course!
I believe HIVE is the mothership too, I wish I acknowledged that sooner but I still got here so I am happy.
I am here for the long-term too now. So I look forward to seeing you around and having more good discussions! 😊
Thanks for the breakdown.
You are welcome. I am of the view if we can't make a single plot attractive enough we can't make 10 attractive
I'll probably just keep doing what I have been with my land.