Prologue
As was talked about before, the team upped the entries needed to get a guaranteed card in the Conflicts by another 33% to 1200 Entries for the next time. That screwed up the planning of most people, including myself as I had counted on getting 2 CC in each Conflict without further purchases - but 1200 entries was the end of conflicts, for the 9th card. Not the 4th. So, everything is upside down, and here's a fresh batch of calculations.
Adjustments to the Calculator
Click here to get to the Google Sheet. I added a few things to the calculator to make it easier to adapt to changes in conflicts.
Here you can now enter the number of entries needed, and it automatically calculates the CP needed for each GC. That is now automatically used by the calculators where you can see how many cards you need with your constellations.
There are also two new parts of calculations:
The one on the left shows how many cards you need to receive 1 GC with the amount of entries selected. The one on the right shows you how much that costs, based on the price of each card copy (CC). It does not include the cost of wagons.
Changes
In the 3rd conflict, 125k CP were necessary for each GC. In the 4th, it will be 166k. That difference of 41k CP can come with the following costs:
Meaning, if you had exactly 125k CP staked on wagons in the 3rd conflict, you'll need to stake 41k CP more to maintain that GC. That will cost you minimum $95 if you buy the cards right now (if available), not counting the wagon costs.
This was my line (350k CP) for GC before the changes, taking into account 50 entry steps starting at 800, going until 1200:
This is how my line would look now, predicting steps of 100 entries. The first three are the same as before, as we know those already. The 4th is 1200 entries, the 9th is 1700 entries.
I will barely make the 2 GC in the 4th conflict, and then it's going down quickly.
The good thing is that prices have dropped a lot, and the amount of CC/$ has risen accordingly.
Especially common GF are a good deal at the moment, at around 30ct per CC, which makes over 400 CP/$. A month ago, the best deal was 290 CP/$ - that's 43% more CP that we get for our money. While card devaluation is not fun, for conflict, it's a very good thing.
Here's the table with prices and according CC/$:
Projections
What are the costs per GC if the steps are 100 entries for each new conflict? Or 150? I ran a few projections.
100 entries steps
Most of the graphs here are the ones used in the post. Here's what the 9th conflict would require per GC, at 1700 entries per CC:
150 Entries steps
With 350k CP, I'd get the following:
The 9th conflict would need 1950 entries per CC:
200 entries steps
Even if this extreme measurement (or at least I hope it's extreme), I'd still get 1 GC in the 9th conflict.
The 9th event would require 2200 Entries for a GC, leading to this cost structure with current card prices:
Conclusion
I'm glad that common Gold Foil cards have gotten so cheap, so I can improve my deck with them and at the same time see if I can keep up with conflicts - depending on what the Entry-Hikes will be. And how the cards are structured. "Loving the Moo" seems to be very powerful - especially the Blast/Magic Reflect combo. I'll probably stack up to get 3 copies of that one.
Also, always keep something in mind - the cards bought now can be sold afterwards. But there is no guarantee that the value will be the same, as packs are still opened and as I stated above, the price for most cards has fallen a lot in the last months.
It's never perfect. This wasn't the best outcome possible, but I think that the team is working hard to make it as manageable as possible. And maybe with the next set, Conflicts will be totally different and awesome and the expectations adecuate.
Former posts:
Calculating Land part 1 - How to get your ROI
Calculating Land part 2 - Are pools worth it?
Calculating Land part 3 - Organic Growth
Land Plot Efficiency for non-whales
Card-Production-Coefficient - Combining LPE and ROI
Renting for Land - at what cost?
Risks to my strategy
What do refined resources cost?
Real cost of Wagons
Calculating Totem and Title boosts
Calculating Plot Rarity Boost
Setting up a Rare Stone Plot
My perfect plot - Conclusion of my calculations
Thank you very much for reading, I hope you enjoyed it at least as much as I enjoyed writing :-D If you have any comments or feedback - please let me know! And don't forget to leave your own posts for me to curate. Thank you very much!
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Dividers by Saydie - Click here. Always grateful for those!
I love calculations and this is a very useful post about Conflicts!
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Thank you! I'm a big fan of running the numbers, too - makes the decisions so much easier :-)
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Thank you!
So, based on those numbers (everything subject to change!) it’s best to scoop up a $100 gold foil commons than a single black foil commons?
Correct. With $100 worth of Common GF, you get around 40k CP. With one BF common, you get 25k CP. Of course, you'll need more wagons for the common GF - they take up around 8 spaces, while the BF is one space. But it's still cheaper if you include the wagon.
Thats what I thought, already have most commons at some level of GF taking up space on wagons so it won’t add many more for me 👍
How was your conflict for the past 1,2 & 3 - did you get more or less
Got lucky in the first one - 3 GC and 3 extra. Second one, 3 GC. I now upped my CP to get 3 GC in the current one, too.
Sounds good you got those extras.
At least in the first round. I really hope to get some in the summoner rounds, or the current. Calamity is a beast.
Thanks for sharing! - @azircon
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