I think the answer to that is quite clear.
At the moment, there is a stalemate in the witness rankings meaning that no hardfork is possible by either side, just to reiterate, one side is a decentralized Steem supported by the majority of the community, the other side is a centralized Steem that is supported by Justin Sun and a tiny slice of the community.
The current stalemate is held together by @proxy.token, an account used as a voting proxy by many of the SCT community. SCT is a highly staked, but small community made up of mostly Korean members. Due to their stake, they are the third largest community by pending payout.
You can see that there are about the same amount of subscribers as posters, which tells of a narrow selection of users. In comparison, we can see the two communities above in payout size:
Now, I am not sure what the SCT think about this, but I know that they are not keen on the downvotes they have received in recent months. I think part of the reason for the downvotes is that the EIP has shone a light on a narrow circle, something that was hidden prior to HF21/22 as bidbots buried their posts. However, once the trash was removed from Trending, a lot of the same SCT posts were coming up and as far as I could tell, they were initially using the SCT token to buy votes with anyway. I am not sure about now.
Anyway...
Once the spotlight was shone on them and there were literally pictures of soup getting 25 dollar payouts, the downvotes started. After such a long time of being hidden away, this was not the kind of attention they wanted I am sure. So, they want to get rid of downvotes.
Downvotes are the only way to deal with bad actors on the Steem blockchain.
But again, anyway...
At the moment, they are hedging their bets by holding the witnesses at a non-consensus level, which is great, but do they understand the consequences of a Justin Sun victory?
They can remove downvotes. Score!
The problem is that it won't matter, because Justin Sun doesn't give a fuck about the reward pool as he already has the next three years worth of Steem it would produce in his wallets - and he wants to get paid.
What he is likely to do after this entire miscalculated debacle he has created where he has pulled in friends on exchanges to lock up the stake of their customers and use it to vote. The legality of this is an issue in itself, but so is the liquidity they require for their operations. So, they want to change the powerdown period to much shorter for the exchanges, and their accounts.
Ah... so the person who wants to exit will have access to 65 million Steem instantly, while everyone else has to wait 13 weeks?? Sounds fantastic for all those big staked holders who are worried about losing STEEM via downvotes.....
But, even as the price of Steem tanks as Justin Sun dumps on the market the very cheaply bought Steem, he won't be the only one.
But before I get there...
If Justin Sun wins, the chance of a Sister chain goes up to near 100% and do you know what that means? Well, the people who are interested in a decentralized community will shift there, leaving the SCT and a few stragglers on the old chain. There are about 20,000 top level posts on Steem a day, the SCT community has a total of 3615 posts coming from 369 posters. The chain is going to be very quiet.
Back to the "not the only one dumping"
Once there is a sister chain up and running with all of the information of Steem copied and ported over with a new token, there is no reason at all for people to stay on the Steem blockchain,other than in hope. Nothing stops them from staying of course, but it isn't going to look pretty as the maximizers will move in. So, because there is no one here, it means there is no reason to keep the stake, and while Justin Sun has 65 million odd and the SCT has something like 6 million between them, the rest of the Steem community has another 130 million powered up, as well as 110 million on exchanges (mostly locked in stake currently) and liquid. This is going to get dumped too. All of it.
Even if the SCT community keep their stake powered up, about 330 million Steem is going to be sold as fast as it can be sold for any profit possible. Without the community here, there is absolutely, no reason for Justin Sun to hold any, nor anyone else. Price is going to tank as hard as it can possibly tank. Steem becomes valueless.
But no downvotes!! Yay!!!!
And then there is the sister chain...
I am guessing that if the Steem community is forced to fork into a sister chain, the highly contentious pre-mine stake that is continually at the center of the discussion on Steem, will change form. Perhaps a lot of it will be burnt to lower total suply, perhaps a portion of it will be used to fund the SPS or pay for the developers who can roll out SMTs. Regardless, it won't be in Justin Sun's accounts - as those accounts won't exist.
But, a sister chain is not Steem and it can do as it pleases. If the Steem community is the value of Steem and they move to a new chain, the new chain will immediately have use case value, even though the token price will take time to build. But, do you think the sister chain developers are going to look kindly on those who have essentially screwed the last four years of their work, investment and effort? Why wouldn't they use the opportunity to remove who they can clearly identify as working against the community?
This is a blockchain, every vote cast has been recorded, as well as every proxy vote cast. With a new chain comes new code, and I am going to go out on a limb and say that those who would be responsible for fucking the community over by trying to centralize the governance, might not be the most welcome accounts on the new sister chain, regardless of their stake size. Rather than give them the opportunity to get free tokens and then dump again on the community, perhaps those tokens never get issued, those accounts never created. Perhaps the equivalent amount of tokens goes into the funding for development of the new chain.
A sister chain will have downvotes.
So, going with Justin Sun at this point means that the Steem token is going to be valueless, and the only gain the chain will have for those who support it is that, Steem will have no downvotes. Smart contacts? Why would Justin Sun spend any more money at all on Steem for a community of a few hundred people who reside in a community that he has dumped his tokens on to get his ROI on his cheaply bought STEEM?
This post isn't meant to be contentious or combative, but as far as I can see it, whoever sides with Justin Sun at this point is not only going to have their Steem value crushed to zero, they are also not going to have a place in the community that is forced to shift to another chain - or at the very least, they will have to start from scratch or buy-in again. It is about as lose-lose as you can get for them.
Those who choose to support the decentralized side of the community, which is by far the majority of users, will have a lose on Steem, but a win on the new blockchain, as there will be no ninja-mined stake, less circlejerk abusers, more changes to the code to protect them from what has happened the last few weeks and be members of a community of people who have fought for their digital existence. Yes, token price is going to be a challenge initially and there will be many struggles, but it will be within a community of people who went to battle together and while maybe it wasn't a win, it definitely wouldn't be a defeat.
The one sensible option for SCT
As I see it, the only move for SCT to protect their significant stake value is to remove the votes from the Justin Sun witnesses and allow the real Steem witnesses do their job. The funny thing is that from that position, there might even be the potential for a real win-win where even Justin Sun might get a benefit out of it, as the Steem witnesses aren't only looking out for their individual stake, as they know that the value of it is tied to the entire Steem community. The Steem witnesses protect the chain and the community because it is in their best interest to do so.
I don't want to go to a sister chain because I have put a massive amount of work into Steem, but Steem is just a name. I have always said that the most valuable piece of Steem is the community and that means, I will happily make the shift with them - and build afresh. A fresh start on a more secure, more collaborative, more community orientated and more rewarding chain, with a better token distribution and no spectre of ninja-mine in sight.
Simple.
STEEM might go to zero. The community to the moon.
Taraz
[ a Steem original ]
Play stupid games; win stupid prizes.
I find myself getting sucked into this vortex, then remember that I know and trust aggroed, lukestokes, timcliff, yabapmatt, blockbrothers, ausbitbank; and a dozen other witnesses, to work together and discern the best way forward like they've done in the past.
The hardforks, the replays, the shared history.
You can't buy that. Not even for $10 million.
If they stay on the main chain and keep fighting, I'm with them.
If they move to a new chain and start fresh, I'm with them.
There are still wins available, but the doors are closing
Lol
blockbrothers agreed to removed downvotes fyi. Thankyou for your trust :)
Yes, I saw that; and their community manager quit. I don't see a way forward without downvotes, but I'd rather deal with Justin, then the Koreans, (downvoting can take many forms) than both at once. I think he's the bigger threat to the chain right now.
Yes he is. But if there is a sister fork, may as well clean house.
That's dangerous talk. Who's on the chopping block then? Korean's? Anyone who ever upvoted Ned? Exyle?
Fork, by all means, but we should only be carving out the STINC ninjamine.
I think that if there is one sister chain, there will be 5.
Please be wrong.
I agree, that may be a bridge too far. Regardless of their stake, I don't think people who turned their back on the community chasing favor from Justin will fare very well on a new chain, so the problem will take care of itself anyhow.
We don't need more ugly. We need neat. Clean, precise. We start purging accounts, you could make the argument that those who've inflamed tensions with fiery rhetoric, (necessitating the fork) should be on the chopping block too.
Anyone who showed too much or too little support for Justin gets left behind.
Terrible idea.
4 years on the chain and they seem to have learned very little.
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I am 100% with you. Community is the main reason why I come to steem every day, why I am constantly building communities, found curation initiatives and organize events. I don't fucking care about any stake that will drop or any token pair on any exchange. I will be there from the first second and will focus my full work on a new chain with equality, freedom and diversity. Just tell me where to go and I will give my best to convince all the amazing people I know here.
Steem on (or what we will ever say later ;) )
Peace!
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Is it getting that ugly? :|
Well, it ain't pretty :D
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Thanks. So, my understanding is i should stay powered up then. Not be concerned if Justin and others dump and my 40,000 approx STEEM go to zero, as a sister chain would copy my STEEM amount into the new chain (and no cost for me), rename and list in exchanges, and eventually price of my new tokens/coins would likely rise from initial zero. Correct understanding?
I don't know much about should, but I am guessing that a new chain would have to have a starting point, and they might use either a snapshot now, or a point from the past to pick up from. I would assume there would be a 1:1 conversion to a new token.
I am still hopeful it won't come to that.
!ENGAGE 30
From this https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-ceo-admonishes-justin-sun-over-steem-fiasco-transparency-works/amp?__twitter_impression=true it looks like binance won't be using their customers votes again
Interesting read. Thanks for sharing it @atma.love
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Every supporter of the hostile takeover of the Steem blockchain/voted for sock puppet witnesses during the snapshot will be considered a hostile entity and an enemy of decentralization and will not have their STEEM balances transfered over to the new "NEOSTEEM" blockchain.
Or something like that.
I don't like the name NeoSteem.... there is already NEO.
Then we fork you as well. lol
:D
Binance are about to power down. This was posted 20 minutes ago.
#BuySTEEM #powerupsteem
Yep, you will see me on that thread ;)
Amen. Agree on all counts.
Let's see if others do.
!ENGAGE 30
@edicted does. I love his posts about Steem.
I'm pretty confident that if we had to move over to Steem Classic/whatever, getting listed on exchanges wouldn't all that hard. The community is here and this war has made the crypto space more aware of Steem than anything in years. Binance, Huobi and Poloniex being dragged into court by users whose Steem stay in limbo for who knows how long when the idiots at Tron crash the chain when trying to hard fork it, would offer another bout of hilarity and get everyone's eyes on Steem. The optimistic view is that this debacle could be a boon for smaller providers of crypto-fiat gateways.
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I have a feeling you at some point get to say: "I told you so."
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I hope it is smoother than I expect :)
We're all hoping for that. And unicorns are real.
Someone brought up re-branding and said the name Hydra... I want a 20 headed mascot that eats exchanges for breakfast. I think Hydra is a way better name than Steem. Unfortunately, Steem is the coin getting all the press and Steem is the coin that's died a dozen times already. Re-branding is difficult.
We should all be starting a powerdown... even if we cancel it on the last day, so we can dump on Sun ASAP upon pushing the hardfork. Justin case.
Rebranding is difficult as Steem was never a good name from the beginning.
The problem with people starting powerdowns is that the witness votes are based on steem power, not liquid steem. The witness could lose a lot of backing from a bunch of people powering down. I don't have all that much SP, a bit more than 3500, but I'm not going to initiate a powerdown unless it's absolutely necessary.
if we start a powerdown now the first leg won't complete for a week. A week is an eternity and we can always cancel the powerdown at any time or power the coins back up. It's foolish to not be powering down right now to increase our options.
There is absolutely no reason everyone shouldn't be powering down.
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Although it appears increasingly unlikely, if a peaceful resolution is able to be found somewhere in the middle ground, then I do think it's fair that Justin, as a significant stakeholder, have some kind of representation among the consensus witnesses.
I do suspect, however, things have broken down beyond any chance of a meaningful reconciliation.
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I think he always will, unless it continues on like this. then he will have none.
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Every block that SCT allows Justin Sun to control the network puts the chain at further risk. It amazes me that they think this is a good time to bargain, when Sun could take control of the chain, push a hardfork, and ruin everything for them in an instant. I can't even imagine how the idea could ever be entertained that siding with a tyrant on a decentralized blockchain is a good idea.
I am guessing that no one wants to start again unless absolutely forced. There are wins available, but JS wouldn't like the terms. No matter what move anyone makes, there will never be unanimous support
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I'm working on my introduction post for the new chain...Just in case. It's gonna be fantabulous.
#reintroduceyourself
Allow myself to (re)introduce...myself...
Lol.
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tag me when it's done just in case i miss it please
For sure.
Yeah, I don't think the Koreans really understand what is at stake here, yet they are trying to bargain for few pennies whilst everything they have managed to milk is at risk of losing value with their own actions.
What comes to the exchanges, they should just suck it up because this is their own mess they created by getting involved with the governance of Steem. And definitely no privilege with a shorter power down periods - dump all the Steem with the expense of the community, this is unacceptable. Would like to come to some sort of compromise, but this is not the way to do it. And with exchanges still not having initiated a power down(?) they are digging themselves further into this mess by hoping for a quick fix.
They think only about their own stake, and don't seem to understand how the rest of the platform operates. For a long time, they were in the corner doing what they do while everyone else was dealing with bidbots.
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Long reads and short tweets
No need to panic.
Justin just wants out at this point- with as little upset as possible - ie any crap coming back to him from the use of the exchange debacle.
(from my take on the last meeting, they didn't grasp the concept of 'power down' , or understand it even. Seriously)
I think he wants out, never to be seen again.
(ned may be having some problems though)
For you guys with serious money invested in Steem, the last thing you need is as split.
Yes, Justin wants out.
Which is why he would push a hardfork.
Which is why the community would counter-hardfork.
Everyone thinks the counter-hardfork is a really bad outcome, but it's only a bad outcome if their are multiple forks and multiple community splits. If we can keep the community together (which looks obvious from witness votes) then a sister chain could easily have more value than the original in quite short order.
There is no reason to.
WE hold all the cards.
(if you're not aware of the power dynamics, you are doomed in negotiation. I don't mean 'you', I mean as a rule of thumb. Know your strengths).
What do 'they' have?
1/ A probable illegal action by the exchanges
2/ A probable illegal action by Tron
3/ A non successful hostile takeover of the witness spots.
4/ A lot of pressure to be out of their humongous cock up, to avoid legal hassles and future consequences in the wider crypto world.
What do 'we' have.
1/Time.
2/ A 13 week, 'way out' route to their self inflicted fuck up.
(a power down, to fix the immediate problem.
3/ time
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I'm surprised nobody has made a meme of Justin Sun and the Dogecoin dog yet... because he seems dead set on moving in direction where Steem will be worth(-)less than a Dogecoin... and that's even an insult to the dog...
I'm here for the community and because I enjoy social blogging, and I am for sure as hell not here "for the money" because around where I live the two dollars a day (on a good day) I earn don't even buy a reasonable cup of coffee... where I want to be is where I feel reasonably assured that the stewards of the system are committed to keeping the chain safe and ongoing in as much perpetuity as one can hope for.