This week something absolutely remarkable happened and for the future development of crypto in general and especially in terms of price development the significance of this can't be overestimated!
If you already are an investor into crypto or the financial markets in general you are probably familiar with stock market letters, stock magazines, forums and youtube influencers giving you ideas, hints, tips and advice what to consider a worthwhile investment.
You might be surprised if I tell you that big institutional investors - like pension fund managers or mutual fund managers - also rely on a kind of similar advice and service: professional research analysts. And as well as for the stock market gurus of the "small investors" there are certain analysts that have a reputation to be the best of their kind and to have predicted major market developments and turning points with a proven track record and fantastic precision.
One of those “celebrity” analysts is Christopher Wood https://grizzle.com/author/chris who I first noticed while he was working for CLSA but still followed after he changed to Jefferies.
Starting already in 2003 Christopher gave big institutional investors the advice to add bullion (physical gold bars) and gold mining stocks to their long only US portfolio. Investors who took his advice did pretty good considering gold went up from around 350 USD in 2003 to around 1,900 USD these days. In mid-2019 he first gave positive hints about bitcoin in general in his weekly research paper “Greed&Fear”.
But now, for the first time ever, he gave the direct recommendation for the above mentioned US long only portfolio investors to swap 5% of the total portfolio from gold (cut from 50% to 45%) into bitcoin. There are three major facts he points out that led to this recommendation:
1.) His general prediction of a medium-term high inflation or reinflation environment – due to the fact that globally central banks are no longer in control of the money supply (aka printing press) but politicians. (monetarization of fiscal policy)
2.) The ability to invest into bitcoin via professional custodian services enabling institutional investors to get into bitcoin in a way they are familiar and comfortable with.
3.) The fact that stock market listed MicroStrategy’s CEO Michael Saylor as a kind of ice-breaker was able to convince auditors, board of directors and even the SEC to use Bitcoin as their primary treasury reserve asset on their balance sheet.
While the timing is questionable as bitcoin quadrupled already since the corona dip in March, you can rest assured that this piece of paper is remarkable in many ways and will have a major impact onto senior, long experienced investors and money managers and might even give them sleepless nights.
Usually, I would expect BTC and ETH to have a week period now for a medium price correction after their astonishing climb but it seems that any dip could be bought into by higher and higher piles of “traditional money” stacked at the sidelines waiting to get in.
While nobody can predict if on a short time horizon crypto prices will go further up 50% or will crash by 50% I feel that by this news the fundamental basic setting for crypto is changing massively atm.
In March of this year I felt that I might be overexposed into cryptos.. the recent price movements and news make me feel stupid having bought and hodling not much more.
It actually could be that 2020 / 2021 is the tipping point where crypto becomes a mainstream investment both for institutional investors as well as retail investors and that those fantastic price predictions actually might be realistic one day what puts us early crypto enthusiasts on the winning side and can put a lot of “old- wealth” into trouble.
! Disclaimer ! This is by no means an investment advice. Crypto investments are high risk and can lead to a total loss of your investment. Please research carefully what you are about to invest into and if your financial situation allows you to expose yourself to such a high-risk investment.
The author is long several in this article mentioned crypto currencies!
Hi @solarwarrior I must thank you for introducing our community to Christopher Wood and his wisdom.
I say this in the light of the fact that knowledge and well informed information can be a life changer.
For a lot of big investors converting 5% of their portfolio can make a big difference.
However even if you have little wealth in the name of portfolio and live from one monthly wage to another this post sure seems like light at the end of the tunnel.
At least I see it this way so what holds good for big portfolios would also hold for small investors who put a few dollars worth of their wealth into Bitcoin following Dollar Cost Averaging and this would surely help them get a more sturdy BTC portfolio when the conventional investors Que up to get into BTC & other crypto.
your post comes at a time when we have seen BTC hit ATH and the best guess is that this is only a sample of things to come.
Thanks for sharing your wisdom with our community dear @solarwarrior
I am amazed.. but not really surprised by BTC recent strength... stabilizing.. no technical correction.. this is just amazing...
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Do not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:
We've been begging for institution investors for ever.. now that they're showing up even the doubters are starting to show up. Wait till full-on FOMO kicks in.. #BuckleUpButtercup
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Yes.. you are very right! This fomo moment will probably be exponentially greater than what we experienced in 2018...
5x is my guess ... 100k
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you're modest :)
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The problem is that when BTC was cheap retail was asleep, when retail will wake up, large institutions have already bought more than miners could mine and drove the price to unprecedent levels.
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could really be a fomo thing next year
Hello @solarwarrior
Good data you provide in your publication.
Certainly, this year, especially the last months, have been of great boom in the field of cryptography. The inclusion of a large amount of money from Fiat to the cryptocurrency market I think is a good omen, and I don't see the price going down soon, but it can happen. In this field of investment volatility is an important feature that is always to be considered.
I also regret that I did not buy BTC in March when it was really low, but there is not much you can do now, but contextualize it.
Thank you very much for your contribution, and for your support.
very right.. at least we have some crypto.. also as always if something moons you never have enough.. ;-)
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Dear @solarwarrior
Thanks for sharing this link with me and for publishing within our Project.hope community. I've reposted it already and shared with few more friends.
It's becoming very obvious that more institutional money will be flowing into crypto-space. The only question is: when will it happen? Since I'm interested with crypoto (2017) I've been hearing it every single year. I already come to belief, that there is no other way around - but it may still take years to come, since this process seem to be so slow.
Either way, it's hard not to be bullish and I also cannot imagine scenario, where bitcoin wouldn't reach 100k usd within upcoming 2 years. I think we're destined to get there. Especially if we take into consideration, that media are picking on Bitcoin (Since it crossed 20k ATH level) and apparently every mined bitcoin is being purchased by few "giants". So on one hand we're going to witness rapidly increasing demand, and I forsee even less people willing to sell their holdings.
Question is: how central banks, politicians and regulators will react when they will focus their evil eyes on Bitcoin again? I'm concerned about it a little bit. However, part of me believe that there isn't much they can do any more. They have lost so much of their power and credibility during covid crisis and with all that "funny money" being printed into economy -> it will be difficult for them to do anything to stop money flow to crypto.
Have a great monday ahead,
Yours, Piotr
Ia actually believe that even institutions do not care too much about what regulators and central banks are saying about crypto... many institutional investors are shocked by the actions central banks and politicians did commit over the last 9 months.. so some bold statements from politicians and central banks might bring short term volatility... but at the end more and more people take the promises and properties of crypto as one of those things that help you to amend the threat of the devaluation of your savings
Hello @solarwarrior
Detailed article you have here. One thing I have really noticed is that this year in the world of crypto, many people eyes, knowledge have been opened positively about the crypto space positively which has also have a positive effect on BITCOIN also in terms of the recognition, adoption and price movement it has witness this year so far.
With the way this is going, though I will be rooting for bitcoin to make some corrections but I am seeing the positive mometunm of the BITCOIN price continuing due to the way people are diverting their investment portfolio to BITCOIN and the much believe they are having now on bitcoin.
I am seeing BITCOIN hitting even $30k before the end of the half of next year if possible and just like we all know when BITCOIN performs well, other altcoins perform well also.
If I had to made a guess I would also say that BTC is more likely to be @30k USD than below 20k USD in Summer 2021
If we want success in trading then we must start thinking like whales. Money management and risk management are tha basic things anf after that follow the whale moves. Anyway this time bitcoin will breaks new records and the rally has started already.
as a trader this sounds reasonable.. as a non trader I would just hodl. and if you have not bought crypto yet do cost averaging with same fiat amounts over the next months...
Great post. It does feel different this time. 3 years ago it was all techies followed by speculation. The crash gave time for the believers to accumulate and build better tech. We are so much stronger now as a community and I think investors see that now. It isn't going away and the usability is getting better. There are more use cases. I feel that this is the time crypto really starts becoming mainstream.
Have a good day!
Definitely.. its like a switch: either investors see BTC as credible investment alternative or not.. if they do they have to buy into it.. at whatever price... and as investors are starting to change their mind, more and more are buying into crypto
It sounds reasonable what you are saying, and it is also safe to say that institutional investors are getting more and more into Bitcoin, and maybe also some other cryptos like Ethereum. I believe there will be quite a lot of rollercoasters when it comes to Bitcoin price also in the future, but in the long run, it should still be a quite safe investment :)
I wouldn't use "safe" with cryptos in regards to price movements.. but in many other instances it is... might replace gold to some extent as safe harbor..
"medium-term high inflation or reinflation environment"
This statement is spot-on @solarwarrior. The long-term devaluation of fiat currencies is only accelerating, and it's great for capital assets, especially crypto. It may not turn out too well in a decade or two for economies at-large, depending how it plays out, but it's great now.
definitely.. I mean you can flee into hard assets like real estate or stocks... but at the end - also for large amounts - BTC will probably be the safe harbor for many...
First of all, I am impressed by this post. Btc have changed the world and I will say it is one of the best invention we have seen so far.
Alot have considered Btc as the best way to invest following it decentralised way. I read through comment and I saw people saying it will hot $100. If this happens, a lot of lives will change. I am seeing btc impacting the lives of poor in a short term.
you are right, but the coin always has two sides... and at the end it will be the poor who loose the most.. once again.. because they usually have no access to real investments.. but save in fiat... enabling the transfer and investment in crypto on small scale level via smartphones could definitely change this and I am more and more convinced that hive actually could be the most realistic way to get people in poor countries to "onboard crypto"...
Good post,I think that bitcoin will have an adjustment towards down then it'll go up to 25k.But for next year I estimate that it will arrive the 40k, since zctualmen we are a community with more information, influence, much more organized and large Investing parties are watching that.
when I first heard about BTC price 100k etc.. I thought they are all crazy... atm I think this should be pretty realistic medium term.. once inflation kicks in...
Greetings @solarwarrior thank you for these lines of writing and for the analysis that you contribute in it. The loss of credibility that the institutions in charge of the flow of physical money have had is no secret to anyone, therefore it is to be expected that these large investors migrate to the digital world, in this sense, beyond the volatility of the cryptocurrency market It is not estimated that there will be a drastic fall in bitcoin, on the contrary, it is expected that it will continue to reach historical highs for this currency.
Perhaps those with great investment capabilities have no problem, now what will happen to those who are starting in this world and where our capital is low.
your are definitely spot on.. the poor will carry the highest burden as their only store of money is usually fiat based... what actually gives me hope for them is, that you have access to crypto if you have a smartphone.. and especially hive could be the first thing those young people in developing countries could use to get familiar with crypto...
Hello @solarwarrior
The fall of the BTC in March, evaluated it as a correction to enter the accumulation range, and certainly those analyses today, are totally accurate, now since then, as you mentioned in that period the strategy of attracting institutional investors, has been very successful, because it positions the BTC as a relevant economic muscle overcoming traditional dominating currencies. I agree with you, the corrections made by the BTC in the following will be accompanied by multiple purchases. I am crossing my fingers, so that this BTC rally will be accompanied by the rest of the crypto-currencies. Thanks for this interesting and well detailed analysis.
Hi @solarwarrior
I will be very sincere, I really did not know about that information but from now on I will be more attentive to the advice that that analyst gives.
Like you, I could not invest in BTC when you could invest perhaps out of fear or ignorance now I am very sorry that's what I could do and didn't do it at the beginning of this year.
But all is not lost and I think that somehow the market will remain stable for a long time, another factor, without falling into government policies, expectations are uncertain because the markets are still governed by warnings from some governments that are not worth mentioning. but that investors follow very closely.
Hey.. its always the same situation.. if your investment tanks you say to yourself: I am overexposed... if your investment moons you say to yourself: I do not have enough.. ;-)
I like to soak up a dose of optimism from time to time, which is why I found your post interesting to read.
Certainly the BTC has already passed the 20 thousand dollar barrier, however this contagion seems to be only the BTC, there are still many investors who don't believe in the cryptomonies that are generated by blockchain platforms like hive and steemit. The steem and hive still don't reach 20 cents of a dollar, that worries me but at the same time I am full of optimism and I think we have to keep waiting for the great generalized escalation of cryptomonies.
Greetings and thanks for sharing this important post in the project hope community.
I am looking forward to a spill over effect from BTC and ETH to seconds tier alts.. and after that to third tier like hive...
Personally, I believe that BTC will gradually find its way to become a value reserve driven by institutional investments. I have no doubt about that, and even more so now that Mr. Christopher Wood gives a good prognosis of BTC everything that is happening makes me think that I am right, but if I am realistic and after my losses in 2017, I am worried. Regarding the possible correction that "BTC" is going to suffer and its impact on people who tend to invest in the short term, "panic is the most contagious thing", imagine that a correction of more than 40% would be crazy, as it was in 2017.
Cryptocurrencies are the money of the future (or the future of money) and I think people need to accept this once and for all, @solarwarrior.
It seems a regular cycle to get fiat money from new investors and then fuck them like in 2018, we are facing the same scenario, we will see on next month, whales want to keep serious investors and so who kept BTC for long time it can get profit, but most of crypto investors want big earning in short time, so this is the result whales are becoming rich and stupid people becoming poor, rich can wait, poor not...
I have some experience with my company coin, none of these poor community want to invest their money to get just 10% safe profit, so i am getting much more investor with fiat because they realize this is a real investment, based on our people work and development, not just based on ponzi scheme or other shit we can see in this crypto world...
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@solarwarrior as per understanding bitcoin will now have a small correction upto 20k then again it will start a new movement for new high. I guess by the end of 2021 it will reach 35k easily. Lets hope for the best and accumulate as much as we can and enjoy earning.
My guess is that it could go even higher and quicker..