Oil Supply Chain
Suddenly everyone is interested how much traffic is going through the Persian Gulf, and to where. Also who has how much supply left! Sigh. You are reading too much news, eh? And you didn't see it coming? If you are reading news, this escalation was public information for months. Anyways, since you are interested I will provide some facts, and keep in light on opinion and interpretation.
Below is the current commercial ocean bound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah! if you read the news, you will feel it is empty!
Yes, although it doesn't look empty, but there is little traffic going through the strait. Most of the tankers are stationary, as they don't want to take risk, just like you are thinking. It is only 5th day of the war, and potentially US navy can escort tankers through the strait when the time is right. Note, that Iranian Navy is mostly destroyed.
Air Traffic
Both Doha and Dubai airport remains mostly closed till March 07, as per emirates website. That is a much bigger deal in my opinion. You can see what is happening to commercial traffic in the live flight radar below.
I use both DXB and DOH extensively for travel, and I am sad to see they are closed. However, some commercial flights are trickling out of there. I have three colleagues currently stuck in DXB and one in DOH. Two of my colleagues got out of DXB 1 hr before the closure on Saturday. I'd say West to East international travel over middle east is heavily impacted. DXB and DOH are two of my personal favorite airports for the record.
Okay, who has how much?
Let me write this in bullets, the data is from Kpler, which tracks global supply chain for oil and gas.
- China 115 days
- Japan 254 days
- South Korea 210 days
- Taiwan 120 days
China does have significant domestic production, and it also operates three major crude pipelines, two of which transport oil from Russia and Kazakhstan and are shielded from Middle East disruptions. So I don't see China is in any kind of serious pressure. The other three doesn't have any meaningful production, but as you can see they all have at least 3 months of reserve.
So unless you expect this conflict to last 3-4 months, I don't see any reason to worry about the oil supply chain to major consumers in Asia.
And, if that happens, the escort option is always available.
Cheers!
Consider reading the news a bit less for your personal mental health. I know I am doing the same. Lot of these events are beyond your control and there is nothing much you can do other than worry. Even you worry to death, nothing is going to change. That is the fact.
Thanks for keeping us updated on what is going on over there. Figured with your real life experience in the middle east you would be a good source of information and glad I found some here.
Appreciate it.
What is reported in the news is often exaggerated based on the agenda. Reality is often different solo.
Absolutely, that is why I find opinions by people like yourself so important.
You have skin in the game, working in the oil exploration field for years you have given us good insights into what is going on far away from where I live.
I can't believe all the fuckwits here in the US insisting it isn't really a war despite raining munitions on Iran, sinking their ships, assassinating their Supreme Leader, and inflicting massive collateral damage on the civilian population. The oil trade will have an impact, but human lives are being snuffed out like it's nothing, and the sheeple here bleat that it's "just a police action" and "totally legal" and "not a big deal."
lol. It is totally a war. But perhaps a war that large population of Iranians both domestic and expats, actually supports
I've heard that story before. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... The track record is not good.
Track record is indeed not good. But except Afghanistan, the rest worked out great for both the people and us.
Libya is a humanitarian disaster, Syria is now led by an Al-Qaida bigwig, Iraq is a mess, Venezuela is still led by the underlings of the old regime... Not great at all.
All 4 places are open for business, and we are doing so. Do I live there with my family? No. Do I go there? Yes. Do people live there and is there quality of life better than 1 year back (except Venezuela, because that is too soon)? Yes.
By the way, how many of these four counties have you been to? :) I have been to all four. And I will have no problem going there again. Consider not paying attention to the news.
Fyi, what is a wrong with a ex Al-Qaida big wig? :) We are also run here by a convicted felon and a crook.....what is the difference?
This advice of filtering out news and social media is the best advice ever. Especially that most of our Western media is basically copying and pasting Al Jazeera stuff
Again, another post that cuts through the BS. The media is more about the politics anyway. I rarely have seen them talk much about the global impact of the war and especially on oil. Of course gas prices here are going up. But based on what you are sharing, it seems to be for little reason other than fear or price gouging.
There's no fundamental reason for price to go up. That said, I am always of the opinion that every country should seriously think about their energy security. Europe as a whole is guilty. If they feel price shock, I have no sympathy for them. Because they killed their own oil exploration program. Japan and South Korea and Taiwan doesn't have a choice as they simply don't have any oil, so there is nothing they can do other that buy and hold which they are doing.
That's so true, but I can't help thinking it's easy for us to say now, and worrying does nothing but to stress ourselves out, so why do it. Then I think about our friends in Ukraine who knew the invasion would come one day so why worry about it, and when it does arrive, you're suddenly living in a war zone just because you have a shit neighbour.
You know here domestically, Ukraine war is not anything people care about anymore. I say, support for that one will soon be over.
I'm not surprised. It's a European issue and should be dealt with by the European leaders who have been lame and all talk no action all these years. If they collectively have the guts they could have made progress ages ago instead of relying on America
Watch Taiwan.
Strategically, this is the time Xi can make the move while US is busy in ME.
Don't say that!!!! 😭😭😭😭
In those moments I'm glad I don't live in Germany anymore. Events like that don't only spark surges in gas prices, but also many debates calling for action - which will be forgotten once the war is not that interesting anymore. Happened with Ukraine, unfortunately, too. The adoption to new "normal" is getting quicker and quicker.
Thanks as always for the informative articles on those topics! Loved the one about Venezuelan oil quality btw.
Yeah, Iranian oil on the other hand is of excellent quality! :)
I'm shocked, shocked I must say. I don't think there will be ground troops, though, even though the oil is better :-D What do you think?
It's complicated.
Boots on the ground is better but very costly in terms of human life of US soldiers. If possible a better model could be collapse from within like Syria. That's the model they are playing at but it is only a template and it may or may not work
Would be interesting to see if any militia would take on the fight. I don't even think there is one in Iran, at least I never heard of one that is against the regime. Not a good outcome for the Iranians, though, civil war is most costly to civilians.
Absolutely. I try not to but when things escalate I find I like to read and listen more (there is some excellent YouTube commentary) so I know more about what's going on so that I'm not emotionally influenced by click bait headlines or what idiots say in the staffroom. I'm finding it an excellent study of history and politics as well as narrative drama. The alternative is just to rant about Trump like everyone else as if we can do anything about it by calling him names.
Then, I put down my phone and go to the beach and control things I can, which is very little, and count my blessings I was born where I was.
Yes, I am fairly tired of the news cycle myself. I don't find any value there anymore. Middle East is something I am invested in for work, so I get information right at my finger tips. I am in fact working actively for oil and gas exploration in Middle East for a living...so I don't have a choice. However, my news is not from conventional sources.
Regarding my personal time, I rather learn Japanese :)
Knowing you do what you do, I'm always super interested in your viewpoint, so please know there's value in your writing here! Spot on about energy and food independence. One of my colleagues in Japanese with a long term plan to move back to Okinawa where his family were from. His parents had a pearl diving company in Queensland many years ago. I love hearing his stories of Japan and still wish I'd persevered with it at high school.
Damn I wish we could travel to Iran
Whilst not keen on the US Israel thing a regime change would make life easier for a lot of people.
I have been to Iraq multiple times and did field work there, also in Syria. I have been within kilometers from Iranian border so I am looking forward to going to Iran. I am very keen to travel and work there.
I have to say I'm jealous. It's a part of the world I would have liked to drive through in our old Land Rover. Probably not a good idea now though! I find that rather sad. I did get to go to Myanmar before they shut it up again. I had a mate work for - I want to say Shell? - in Iraq. They were on a pretty good deal living in Dubai with their son's education paid for in a private school, and even when he came back to Australia because the company recognised continuity for children is important. We did visit them in Dubai which was interesting. Not a place I'd like to live though really. I hope you get to travel and work in Iran so you can tell us about it on Hive if you are able!
I am looking at the markets and outside of some commotion in Asian markets US markets view this as a non-event and crypto is going up...
Yeah, I personally don't expect any short term impact. Longer term, a democratic Iran will be most excellent in my line of work. I would love to do some work there personally. I am looking forward to get over there.
I am not a big fan of the current administration, but it seems like this could actually lead to better situation in the middle east if the regime change occurs...
Same here.
You know my view on Trump very well.
Funny thing is that I have looked forward to this regime change for all my adult life and no one tried it. Finally, someone did.
Thanks for this. I have been trying to tell people the same thing without the specific facts that you gave. They largely don't believe me. Typical of the world we live in now I guess.
I am hoping this conflict is over soon, and things go back to status quo.
Me too!
Big money running into oil market these days!
I strongly disagree on both counts. Americans can very much assert control over our government, which is the point of the Constitution, and I am in complete control of how I respond to good information regarding a great many issues of import to me, including supply shocks. It is having good information that is necessary for me to make rational decisions about whether or not to undertake major efforts to adapt my operations to mitigate potential hazards. Because of that I very much appreciate your informed provision of this information.
Thanks!
Oh yeah?
Then go ahead and do it. Why are you hanging out online commenting?
I am doing it. I benefit from social intercourse with smarter people than me here, with better sources of information, such as yourself. I also provide people insights that many find useful, and I endeavor to serve as many people as I can to make their lives better.