Why the next bull-run will matter for Hive

in #hive8 months ago (edited)

You might have noticed that I've been pushing for changes a bit passionate recently. Especially with yesterday's tweet.

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Now, I can understand that this is a bit extreme for some people, but let me explain.

Also, remember that everything which is written with "Hive will.." is only my own opinion and not something static which will happen for sure.

Crypto landscape is changing

In my opinion, the next bull-run could be one of the last of its kind and most importantly, something that separates the wheat from the chaff.

Not that big upswings aren't possible afterward, but cryptocurrency technology is advancing so fast and top blockchains are getting so good, that it's becoming really difficult to compete with them. They can of course always be forked, but for an existing blockchain that would be a massive change and a required token-swap and more.

And not only that but companies like Coinbase, Binance, Crypto.com, etc. are buying up other projects and are becoming crypto behemoths. So the landscape in crypto is going to change.

Crypto is growing and becoming mature/satured

The reason why I think the next bull-run might be the last big one is that we're nearing mainstream adoption. These crypto behemoths are working tirelessly on doing their part in it and there are obviously many other projects (FIO, Shapeshift, etc) doing the same and last but not least, Fiat cryptocurrencies are also becoming real.

As soon as the adoption happens, there will be a massive bull-run and those projects who aren't as future proof as others in people's eyes, will lose out and be left behind.

Hive will not "die/disappear", but something in it might die

Now, Hive will most likely never really "die" or disappear, but it all depends on how you layout the term "die" and what you're referring to.

For me, if Hive can't mature enough until the bull-run happens so it can stay with the big-boys (ETH & co.), then it will become very, very difficult for new innovation to hit and for keeping talented people around.

Could Hive still be used by people if that happens? For sure! But the price will also reflect that.

What will Hive be?

Maybe I need to learn to articulate my words better and/or accept that not everyone is thinking as radical passionate for disruptive changes as me and that I need to relax a bit.

But I will always speak my truth in what I believe and right now, it's that I want Hive to succeed within the next bull-run and beyond. And for that to happen, IN-MY-OPINION, some changes also need to happen.

Yes, SMTs will play a part in that and I am going to put an SMT to good use, but I really want to see more focus on features like custom_json and other 2nd layer network enablers.

If I can be a voice that brings these types of changes, then I will do that, even though I'm also going to be a bit more relaxed and take the foot of the gas-pedal of provoking. As long as there are serious discussions happening about these subjects with results, then I'm "happy". 🙂 🙂

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Very well said, I feel the same way. We need to attract devs who will build dApps like splinterlands or dapplr, and the best way to do this is with a huge pump.

Cryptocurrency adoption has always been boosted by price doing amazingly well.

And it will remain so, especially when competing against under shitcoins that always pump.

Well, yes, we need to attract devs & apps, but I don't want a huge pump (and dump). I prefer to have a very clear value proposition for Hive and making sure Hive is the best in that area; that will attract them.

I was really demoralized to see hive drop out of the top 100. It rocked me to my inner core.
#MakeHiveGreatAgain!

Are you serious? The second sentence leads me to believe you aren't. :)

There are nearly 8000 cryptocurrencies listed on Coingecko now. When we were on Steem and STEEM was around 50th, there were about half as many cryptocurrencies around. Nothing has changed.

I'm serious.

Is Hive a shit coin? I don't think so, not even close, but I've been investing in Hive and studying it for over 2.5 years.

Whats ur blind, no research definition of a shit coin?

If you are not in top 100, you are probably a shitcoin by most people's definitions.

People won't stumble across Hive when checking the top 100 amd they will assume the worst.

It's a terrible psychological barrier.

Who cares about the bottom 8000 cryptocurrencies? Only the top 100 matter.

Where do you think the new coins in the top 100 came from?

Hive is not a new coin, Hive is a 4-year old coin. Hive is a Steem fork representing by far the best part of what Steem was. It dropped out of the top 100 - not immediately after the fork, but months after - weeks after everyone powered down.

If this isn't a bad sign, I don't know what you think is. The fork volatility and excitement is over. The power-downs are done. The largest exchanges we can buy listings on have listed hive.

Sure Hive can get back in the top 100. Hey, I'm confident it can. However, I see the slump as a vote from the market about what Hive is currently doing.

We can't ask Hive users why Hive sucks, they are biased. We have to ask people who don't use Hive why they don't use it. Why don't crypto investors and people interested in blockchain and social media use Hive? Especially the people who answer 'yes I know what it is.'

No need to get hysterical.

I have the Coingecko app on my phone. There is no paging on the list. You can just scroll down the list. Suddenly we're not doomed?

100 is just an arbitrary number. It's downright silly to get your panties in a bunch over being below 100 rather than above 100 as if the difference between, say, the 95th position and the 105th was a make or break thing. Please do realize that there are almost 8000 coins now as opposed to 2-3 thousand at best the last time around when the bull cycle began. There's a huge deal more money in crypto as well given the stage of the cycle we're at.

I don't know if you were around in the fall of 2017. STEEM had gone from 7 cents in March to 2 dollars in June. Then it slowly and gradually came down to about 80 cents in November all the while Bitcoin and the rest of the top market cap coins had all the attention on them. Suddenly, the smaller cap coins including STEEM EXPLODED. In the space of less than two months, STEEM went from 80 cents to over 8 dollars. Smaller cap coins are like that. That's how the market works.

I know exactly how the market works. I've been a member of Steem since Nov 2017, an investor in crypto since mid-2014 and Have been an investor in Steem/Hive since mid-2018.

In any case, 100 is a psychological barrier. Let's think ETFs, the ones I know for crypto are top 10, top 20, and top 30. They all drop anything that reaches top 50. Waiting for an ETF that takes top 100 is a dream, nevermind, top 200.

It's a psychological barrier, that is my point. Our goal must be to get back into the top 100 and stay there. I don't give a damn about 99% of coins, it's often said that many will fail. Coincidentally, the 1% are now the top 80.

I understand being in the top 1.5% is not really a bad thing. But then again, I can make a token on Hive-engine for 100 Bee. Soon I will be able to make a token on Hive for 3 HBD. Most tokens are meaningless. I don't want Hive to be meaningless. Price is important. It's not irrelevant.

I too want Hive's market cap to reach the top 100, 50 and 20 or whatever but not because I think it's some kind of a devastating blow to fall below 100.

Awesome, I believe the next bull run will help real projects like Hive etc, to get the spotlight it deserves

The recurring question that comes to mind - about all crypto , is where is the value?(minus maybe the top 10 as functional money transfer mechanisms, and the odd immutability advantage uses).

I'm not a techy, but I have been in business for long enough to understand the fundamentals of supply an demand. And the market always works.

Question: How much would it cost make a new crypto (by copying code - as in a h/fork?)
50 dollars? , $20,000, 2 million dollars?
The answers lie there...

I want crypto to work and bypassing banking, blah blah...but that doesn't change the reality of scarcity being intrinsically linked to value.
It seems more and more (to me), that lots of crypto (with it's inflationary models)
is too MMT-centric , for want of a better term (modern monetary theory) and not rooted in the basics.

What would I know? (jack shit when it comes to techy stuff - I only discovered powerpoint yesterday!! ffs... lol - psssst - And I'm not joking).

Sorry I gave wolf the credit for the top ten crypto reference. That was your point.

Hahaha nice honest write up man!

Your question of how much it would cost is what I identify as the greatest flaw and why big money will never classify this as a good investment. Forking seems like a good thing but name one mainstream big tech or big business that allows someone to come in and duplicate their product/operation?

NONE!

So that's why big money backs mainstream and sees no great value in crypto. Who on earth would see it as positive if you put x million into something.. then tomorrow it gets copied. That's the very thing that is driving the divide of China-Usa. That China lives by "fck your proprietary".

This is why this crypto game for the most part is a gambling operation. Gambling attracts money but no one would say gambling is an investment.

So naturally gamblers see forking as a positive. It's literally money out of thin air. Yeah that seems like a great thing but conversely it means that it can all just as easy go to zero. Which... the price of Hive is not too far off.

I don't see that changing.
Wolf correctly identified the top crypto as mechanisms of money so they have utility. The days of ICO fooled many into thinking ALTS too had future. "Fool me once, shame on you.." You know the rest.

IMO @blocktrades and co. will either steer the ship into better waters or will drive this bitch into a sinkhole.

But as wolf again identified, this might never fully sink so the game of fooling fools will exist as 'The Tragic Novela' that never damn ends!

I think @blocktrades has good intentions - but in the long run, - if the cost of replication is minimal - it won't matter.

The age of intellectual property /copyright will come to an end.
It's impossible to censor/own ideas, with digital technology. (the mega corps are just hanging on in desperation, to milk as much as possible before it all changes).

...freeing up that which binds us, will allow everyone to fly...

With all due respect, I think you're completely delusional.
Reason how corporations are "hanging on in desperation"?
When what is obvious for all to see is that their power is almost unchallenged.
Senate hearing essentially asking them for permission to look at their operations.
The pandemic seen them corporations increase immensely in profits.

Anyway those issues are beyond this here HIVE.
What I'm expressing is that there just isn't anything here that big money sees as appealing. Or else, the pandemic would have seen a flood of people coming here once they discovered the benefit of such a platform. Because in times of uncertainly people see security. That DIDN'T happen. Justin Sun was the only fool who tried to fool then got fooled by the fools who play the game of fooling.
So IMO, this is HIVE in a sentence:
"Attract more fools.. but not fools with big money... or we need to fork the fuck out again.."

ME: 1995 - "the internet is gonna be the next biggest leap since the wheel"
You're delusional.

ME:2005 " There is gonna be new currency based online that will change everything"
you're delusional

Me:2015 " i dunno what it's gonna be, but there will be a communist push , via a big false flag - for one world government (as the dollar collapses).
It will be something so big that it'll make the world population live in fear of their governments.
you're delusional

So I take no offence, matey!lol..

LOL WTF you're expecting me to know your life?
I'm simply referring to your statement posted here.
That's a tad egotistical of you to do that "this is my life" rebuttal.
Furthermore it was you that diverted to that claim that we as a collective are headed to the promised land where intellectual property loses it's power.
My point was simply about how HIVE has tanked and will not ever recover.

To entertain your 2005 point though.
COMMUNISM is on the rise yeah I completely agree with that.
YET when did communism actually work for the people? NEVER.
CHINA has championed the perfect model (not for the people) and the West are envious of that global dominance they achieved, all while keeping their mass population obedient. AND with the technology of the modern day, are also able to manage and manipulate the economies that those masses are consumers of.
SMART CITIES is that future that CHINA already command. The WEST, again, salivating to have such a perfect system of profit seeking and population control.

Your point also grants governments power and above gov is CORP. ALL THIS is plain as day to see. A recent senate enquiry into these tech giants an embarrassing show of who is really in control. This is why I really would like to know, how the hell does that lead to the perfect world of equality you professed?

MMmmmm....I never said a perfect world of equality - equality doesn't exist.
Communism is cancer.

I'm simply referring to your statement posted here.
That's a tad egotistical of you to do that "this is my life" rebuttal
.

I was pointing out being called delusional is fine.

Furthermore it was you that diverted to that claim that we as a collective are headed to the promised land where intellectual property loses it's power.

I never mentioned any collective. I said copyright was dead in the digital age, just the powers that be don't recognize it yet.
(think horse drawn carriages and cars)

Copyright is cancer - it inhibits others from improving on what is.
It's anti meritocratic and controlling.

OK the delusional label was harsh I don't think you are now.
You do think critically but your memory let's you down.
Your first reply you ended with
"...freeing up that which binds us, will allow everyone to fly..."
If that isn't a commie slogan then..?
Specially after you claimed that intellectual property has no future.
So you essentially paint the world I referred to as "promised land" where there is no system of hireachy like the one now.
Your example of horse into cars isn't a collapse of ownership though. It's just a new overlord enter the game.

Which is again the same system that now has tech heads be the wealthiest and most powerful. Dead Eye Bezos the DR EVIL of our time.
This all still stays on my point that the system isn't collapsing. Just the power has shifted. Corporations just like the days of railroads and into industrialisation are still the heavy hitters that command government policy and economic systems of the world. Which, we as the people exist as the machine that drives it all.

The world now for example. Is in a shift into the digital age where DATA is the value. MONEY isn't even important anymore. The shift to have all humans be identified on those digital systems is the goal with these lockdowns forcing businesses to either adapt or die.

Humans once all recognised as digital entities are then very easy to manage, manipulate, and even DELETE. A thing which is not hyperbole. It's the system already in CHINA and as I said earlier. It's what the rest of the world want to implement.

Yeah there is clear resistance. The rise in Germany is organic for the most part. So maybe Europe, the place that for some time is considered fallen, might just be where a true revolution arises. They do have their history of them.

In USA however, it's FALL (and possibly burn to ashes) regardless of who is elected. I mean, you yourself see it as a positive that the downing of monuments of yesteryear is a good thing.

Since the hard fork, no SMT, and nothing has changed here since the split. Talking without action and building, nothing will change and this place will remain flat.

There's actually a lot of work going on: https://gitlab.syncad.com/hive/hive/-/commits/master

SMTs should be the highest priority. Right now limited Hive development resources are focused on solving scaling issues which we don't have.

Do you have the links to what they try to fix on the scaling issues?

"Scaling issues" is the term referring to all hive infrastructure improvements that are focused on making system run faster/cheaper.

@gtg about the upcoming hardfork: "IMHO it will have a way bigger impact on the Hive infrastructure than the release of MIRA and Appbase combined."

The interesting thing about reducing scaling costs is that it drives the price of token down (not up), because witnesses will be able to sell their newly minted tokens even cheaper.

Take Bitcoin as an example: as competition for mining increases, so is the cost of mining, thus limiting miners from selling Bitcoin below certain price.

SMTs with AMM require HIVE as collateral. This is an efficient HIVE sink, but it is not a passive sink (vs. lower inflation) , but an active stimulus for projects - very powerful motivator for new app projects (token enables independent ecosystems).

Hive needs to be made easier for new people to join. Figure out how to post.

I want Hive to succeed within the next bull-run and beyond. And for that to happen, IN-MY-OPINION, some changes also need to happen.

Let’s keep up the good fight for our HIVE

If I can help in anyway please let me know anytime

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Big things need lot time, I did not run when all steem was come down, but I was HODL so I go do this here in Hive also.

Do me Hive looks very strong, and I feel we see soon it back in top 30 coins. 👌👌👌

Cryptocurrencies have value because of the tech and networks that support them. Fiat currencies have value because of sovereign fiat (legal tender laws). These two things are mutually exclusive. “Fiat cryptocurrency” is not a thing.

I guess it depends on how you outline cryptocurrencies.

Tether is (as their website states) a "digital currency" or "digital token."

I guess the main distinction to draw there is that cryptocurrencies fit all the qualities of money, whereas fiat currencies do not (particularly store of value).

the tech supporting cryptos doesn't provide them with intrinsic value. It would be the same as saying that fiat currency have value because of the quality of their paper and the difficulty of printing fake bills.

While I suppose it is possible to believe that, say, Bitcoin has value because other people think it has value, it's clearly naive to say that the world's largest supercomputer burning more than fifty terrawatts of electricity has no value and does not lend any to the network/currency that runs on top of it.

A4F7510ED022431E8C54F1A325820C85.jpeg

Both fair arguments and impossible to prove.

I prefer to think of FIAT cryptocurrencies as centralized cryptocurrencies. Actually, in my opinion, there is nothing wrong with this. However, speculating on centralized cryptocurrencies is entirely different and depends on the central authority and the FIAT. I have no issue with national currencies using blockchain and decentralized ledger to have a digital version of their currency. A few nations are looking into this and it will have a lot of benefits.

Yeah, national cryptocurrencies would be my ideal situation...anewequationofexchange.info. I think it would change the world as we know it in so many positive ways we can’t even see them all.

!BEER


Hey @abitcoinskeptic, here is a little bit of BEER from @definethedollar for you. Enjoy it!

Learn how to earn FREE BEER each day by staking your BEER.

I think, we really need to put very good documentation of custom json feature, and even some quick start tutorials on it. And then we should also spend some good money from DAO funds, on marketing because we just can't expect people discover us - we are not definitely there yet.

I saw @waivio using it a bit today, when I reviewed one of the campaign today. May be @grampo can help in put some quick documentation.

I have seen some other quick experiments in hackathon - may be we can develop a quick one page Corona dashboard, where we would ask people to do some kind of survey on a region basis (would consist of their name, mail id, country, state, region, their opinion on how the govt is dealing with it , etc - just an idea) and reward them through amazon or other coupons ?

Why Amazon coupons? We have HIVE!

And if guests want to withdraw their earnings fast, Waivio offers instant withdrawals into BTC/LTC/ETH, so that new users can cash HIVE rewards using any Bitcoin ATM.

Not Many are comfortable with crypt initially. I was not knowing Waivio has such offerings, may be we need some details info. And I would recommend, you push these to twitter for sure, even promote it. I think, a DAO fund must be raised very soon to do some marketing campaign.

Let me know, if you already have a link about how Waivio wallet works, or when you put up something.

Exactly. New users question validity and value of crypto rewards. People remember collecting all types of points and never being able to use them for anything useful.

And on top of it, negative crypto publicity.

The easiest way for new users to understand the real value of HIVE, is for them to actually cash out their earnings using a Bitcoin ATM or pay with crypto for a cup of coffee.

Here is the recent Waivio update, where easy withdrawals are announced for guest users: https://www.waivio.com/@waiviolabs/waivio-update-july-25-2020

How about a freshers guide that will have everything from how to join to how to ear and share it on twitter, and even promote a bit ? - @nathanmars , I think, we should definitely have an interview with @grampo and poshed on twitter.

And right now is your vision is limited to review only restaurants ? What about reaching out to other companies for review of their products ?

Sure, the principle is the same. You can add product listings to Hive and post an attention bid to review (or mention) products/services/companies/places on Hive.

We are focused on restaurants because one active user can post many dish reviews if they eat out often. For other products it might be harder to achieve the critical mass.

Thank you and I'll definitely arrange a interview with @grampo

As you know Im new to hive and don’t know much, but i want to help with the "change" you want to see. How can I join the #TeamTheRealWolf

I am only using Hive to post and read, thus know nothing about crypto technicalities, but observe that both Hive and Steem for that matter is dropping fast on the top crypto list and both is now below number 100!! (Although the price is rising slowly, it is rising slower than the others)

While all these people may orbit you like feeder fish hoping for scraps from the whale, I will not.

You continually post carefully worded rants about how you think Hive should be changed to benefit you, #22 in Hive power rankings, to give yourself a steady taxpayer funded income while reducing our stake, that is our property, to nothing.

You might rationalize it as “well I paid XXX into the system and I should get a say because it’s a bigger number than what everyone else paid” and that’s a half assed assumption based on garbage reasoning. You clearly have the excess to just throw into Hive. It’s nothing to you if you lose it.

HOWEVER

The little guys who bought crypto and transferred in $5, $10, $30 at a time and didn’t have any money left to take their kids out to eat, or use for what they wanted, and chose to stake it in Hive in a hope to obtain more bandwidth and curation rewards and who have 50-15000 HP staked have put more into this platform than you.

While you put in what is pocket change to you, because you will always have more- they put in everything they had and now you propose to take it away and reward yourself with it with the added implication that you whales might might spread it around a little.

You propose to take what we put in and allocate all that power to the select few, with every single post you make.

History has shown that to be false.

Others may kiss your ass. I won’t be. And I’m not going to vote for my own executioner.

An interesting point of view Nathan @nathanpieters

I have noticed that the "big boys" rarely engage with the content i share which is mostly about a new governance system which could not only #revolutionizehive, but could indeed help the whole world to evolve into a space with much more #freedom, #peace and #abundance

An example is a comment i made below on this post in which i tagged #therealwolf, (and just tagged you too - i previously misspelled you name but now corrected) but no response from him. Now of course, it is likely that whales get tagged a lot and don't have time to check them all, but surely the job of a witness is to listen to the people who vote for them and at least have the courtesy to respond. So, once more, @therealwolf, i invite you to investigate The Matrix-8 Solution to help secure the Hive blockchain, to bring equality to all Hiveians and to help the world become a better place.

Namaste
Atma

#Xfor1
#OneLove
#HiveUp
#CorruptGovernmentsDown
#matrix8
#PeaceOnEarth
#thegreatawakening