Bitten by Blight

in LeoFinance2 days ago

This is a view of me you probably weren't expecting:

IMG_20211125_002833 (1).jpg

I was asked today what I would be willing to sell my extra Doctor Blights that I get from the airdrop for, which I think is a pretty interesting thing to consider. I won't have that many extras, but if my guesstimates are correct, there should be a fair few of them all told.

There is a 2% chance of getting a Blight card in a presale pack, which means that there is on average, 1 in every 50 packs. There are a million packs sold (not quite but the math is easier), which means there are going to be around 20,000 of the Blighters. There is a 2% chance, 1 in 50, that it will be a Gold Foil. That means there will be 400 GFL Blights.

However, I think this doesn't factor in the presale airdrop cards that are guaranteed. Now, I don't know how many people qualify, but I assume there are going to be "quite a few more". For example, the current number 1 will get,

342 regular guaranteed and 18 GFLs.

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I will get 25 regular and 1 GFL.

The top 100 all have at least 2400 packs and will get at least 46 regular and 2 golds.

So, I expect that when all is done and dusted, there will likely be something around double making the regulars in the supply around 40,000 and 800 Golds. That sounds like a lot of cards, but assuming that people are going to want to combine them to play, that number can reduce quite quickly and I know several people who at least who are planning on maxing their golds. This will bring the supply of individual cards down a bit, but there will still be a few floating about, I am sure.

This means that the price probably isn't going to be as high as some people expect it to be - at least not immediately. However, one thing that has to be taken into consideration is that this is a relatively low Mana card (4)m has lots of "blighty" buffs and most importantly perhaps, is a Neutral card that can slot into any Splinter. I think that last one is the key here, as it makes a massive difference in the playability of the card itself, as it is far more versatile.

This means that it should command a decent price and because neutrals can be played more often, it is possible to get more bonus DEC from playing gold cards. This might not make such a difference in the lower leagues, but in the higher leagues where there is more DEC on offer for a win, this can add up.

But I don't play higher leagues!

Yet.

With the release of Chaos Legion, while there Collection Power is lower, it is likely that the cards themselves are going to be relatively decent on average. This should mean that a new player can compete with a relatively full deck and not have to rent very much to compete. I am hoping that this leads to more people vying in the upper GOLD, Diamond and making a push into the Champions leagues, where previously it was too expensive to rent the necessary cards.

However, while there are 15M Chaos Legion packs in total on sale, there are also hopefully more players coming into the game in the coming months, which means that while rentals values will take a hit and likely card prices too, they will start to spring back once the demand increases. Currently, there aren't a huge number of players (still the most popular blockchain game), but with 2022 being the year of the usable NFT and the adoption of play-to-earn gaming, this number is set to explode.

So, I don't know what I would sell my unused Blights for given the rental potential of them, but if I was to hazard a guess, I don't think I am going to even think about selling for under 500 at this point, because I look long on all of this. Which means the rental value also matters. what is two years of rental worth on it? We won't know for two years, but more than the card I am guessing. This is an investment and there aren't many things a person can purchase and get the ROI back in less than a year.

And this is the thing that I was mentioning in the last post about staking for return reducing market liquidity. On Splinterlands, there is the potential to rent rather than sell, so a lot of people are looking to keep ownership of their assets and earn passively. This means that market scarcity sets in faster, drive the value of the tokens up, in this case, the cards.

As NFTs with a very limited supply and potentially high demand, the value of these cards just based on their rarity in association with a popular game will give them value.

The other day, I was talking to some colleagues/ friends about gaming, anime and the like and someone who had no idea was asking questions. They were talking about all the money they spent on "merch" from the games and the movies that they are into. I was asked whether I am into spending my money on this kind of useless stuff and all I said was,

"You have no idea..."

My friends spend thousand a year on gaming and gaming merch and literally, all they got was.

"this stupid shirt"

Once they start getting into real collectibles that they can own and earn from - where will most of their money go? There are hundreds of millions of them in the world.

They have money. Will spend.

Why would I sell my ownership in the future early?

I's gots the Blight.

Less than 5 hours left in the presale - 800,000 packs sold - the Top 6 must be getting antsy.

And an ATH on HIVE!

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

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You forget the further demand for cards will come in future with the release of land. Land holders are going to need creatures to toil in their fields and factories. That creates another crush on card supply!

I don't forget, I "avoid" - I have no idea what land does and I only have 3 plots. Do you have a decent post I can get some info from?

TLDR:

  • Land will enable players to construct structures.

With those structures you can use harvested resources (from other land types) where monsters toil and trouble to build the next major gameplay expansion to Splinterlands which are:

  • Spells and Items

Spells and Items will create a new gameplay mechanic were users can deploy a spell or item throughout the battle to change the outcome. The items will be NFTs just like each card, and they will only be minted by land holders.

Resources will also be tradeable and have liquidity pools ... and did I mention - that only players with land will be able to generate resources, items and spells?

If you want something more in depth than that, let me know.

Thanks - that is great for now :)

With 3 plots only, I don't suspect I am going to be much of a slaver.

What a crazy end to the sale lots of changes in the last 10 mins it was insane.
Congrats on your title and all the Doctor Blights, I ended up securing 63 packs and just enough vouchers to get me the 1 Doctor Blight.

It may have been better to go with selling my vouchers for more packs but damn I wanted one of those bad boys soooo bad so I had to do it lol. Good luck on your pulls I cannot wait till December 8th haha.

I didn't get to watch it, as it was about 4am my time.

What league do you normally play in? I think the blight should be pretty good throughout all.

Good luck on your pulls I cannot wait till December 8th haha.

You too mate - just imagine all the posts about openings! :D

I play in silver and will be for a good while, I have been building my deck with silver limits in mind. Hopefully, gold someday because that is my favourite league to play in but nowhere near the cards I need to compete in it.

Yes there will be so many I'm hoping to have some myself, My first true big pack opening not just one pack hoping and praying lol. But I expect to see some crazy posts and videos when it first drops.

I am hoping I have enough funds to get my blight to level 3 but it’s looking a little sketchy hahaha. I wonder how it’s going to go, with us getting them. How can we get packs that have them but others don’t if we open them all on the 8th? Strange stuff!

I will certainly try to rent one of mine out until I can get the money to get my one but shit with the ATH we just slammed through last night, I can’t imagine how much it’s going to cost! Good stuff for sure though! It’s going to be a wild card for low mana battles let me tell you lol

Hard to say what will actually happen once all the packs are opened, but I am thinking that top players need a max or L3 at least, so that soaks quite a few of them. I have no idea how they work out what with the release of the promo though.

but shit with the ATH we just slammed through last night,

or the one a couple hours ago ;)

We keep blasting through them, I love it lol

Doctor Blight will be the first more or less obtainable card in three in a half years of the game that I will not own. Sold all my vouchers and already made good profit on the liquidity. The whole pre-sale got way too expensive for my taste.

That surprises me that you sold them all. My original plan was to get the 100, but i went in pretty deep for what I got. Oh well :)

I do think you will be able to pick one up at a decent price if you are in the market later, but "decent" might only be so for some people. Though, buying individual card might be a good option for many.

That's how I created most of my deck. I bought those cards directly from the market over the years.

I'd hold onto all of them!

Let the dust settle from the main Chaos release first at least, but even with that I can only see Dr Blight going up and up in value, it's a pretty special and very limited card.

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This is my plan. What I was possibly thinking to do at some point, is a giveaway on one of them - but I am also not crazy ;)

The game has gotten so competitive I've been contemplating renting out all my cards and enjoying the dividends... But the daily rewards are addictive.

Got me very few chaos league packs. I hope I get some good cards. I've been pretty unlucky these days.

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the daily rewards are addictive :)
Also, it is useful to play a bit in order to better understand the rental climate. I play the first week. I might play more once I have more cards with CL coming.

HIVE hit a new record high price, $1.90. Can we relate it to Splinterlands? What do you think?

Nope - I don't think we can :)
It has an effect of course on the ecosystem through use case, but these pumps aren't related to Splinterlands activity.

Hey there Taraz, please can you shed some light for me. Why is it that my daily reward claim that I'm receiving in my wallet in HBD and HP appears to be so much less than the Hive upvote total for my actual post seven days before? It looks like half the amount is coming into my wallet compared to the amount I received for my post daily. Many thanks, I respect your experience and insight on Hive.

I am not sure what you mean, but it should be half the amount, the other half goes to curators.

I will use 100 as the base to make it easier for my head.

Post = 100 HBD worth.
Curators get 50 (paid in HIVE POWER)
Author gets 50 (paid in 50% HIVE POER/ 50% HBD)

The blockchain always calculates HBD at $1 regardless of the market price (it is meant to be stable), but HIVE price varies based on the market.

So,

Author gets paid 50 HBD worth = 25 HBD as liquid and 25HBD/HIVE feed price for the HIVE POWER.

The current HIVE feed price is $1.20 (this price varies based on the markets)

25/1.2 = 20.83 HIVE POWER

So, the curators collectively will get about 40 HIVE POWER paid to them.
The author will get 25 HBD + 20 HIVE POWER.

Does this answer your question?

Yes many thanks that's exactly what I was looking for. I remember now that there was a HF some time back that shifted the ratio so now curators get half the payout. I wasn't too happy about that since I'm more of a content creator. I will have to engage more I presume.

Doctor Blight will definitely bright the holders future with extra shine like a shiny thumbnail teeth picture😀. i am very optimistic on hive and splinterland price valuation. Do you think hive will recreate the history like how steem did $8.88 in 2017.

I think Hive is going to go higher than the past. I am hoping for 15+ :)

How'd you get so many gold cards?

oh, they aren't mine - they are the top account (at the time) it is just that mine is listed there first - so it looks weird. oops.

I meant in general after looking at your peakmonsters list. Did you simply buy them low over time, or pull these from packs/chests?

I think I opened about 700 DICE cards, so I am predominantly Dice. However, I have bought some in the last few months. I have been trying to pick up some golds here and there, especially the ones I play.

I don't have enough funds to pay for cards. I wish I could buy.

Yeah, the prices are high at the moment.

I’ve bought a few cards so far (to play with) and occasionally rent but am starting to think about buying some to rent out ( haven’t yet figured out how to rent out 😅 ).

But then, what to buy for that purpose? Level 1 cards? Higher level? Summoners? So many options, so little knowledge.

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It takes a bit to get the head around, but renting is really easy using https://peakmonsters.com/

For what to buy to rent, it depends on various league levels etc. Generally, the higher silver and lower gold cards rent the best, but everything can rent on the last day as people look to get enough points to up their league. What many do is play several accounts so they can get the look chests, but at the end of the season, they need to have enough card collection points to actually claim the level they reached. This means they rent hard on the last day.

If you want to have a look, all of my cards are currently rented, so you can use the sort bar at the top to see what is renting at what value and "ROI" - the ROI isn't completely accurate, as it uses market prices based on single cards I think.

https://peakmonsters.com/@tarazkp/cards

You can put anyone's name in the address and see their holdings etc of course.

I can barely play the game on its own, this meta stuff does my head in XD

Mine too, but this is the bit I enjoy the most :)

right.

RIGHT!..