It looks like I (and probably others) are in a bit of a holding pattern as the market does its thing - though I am guessing there are also some panic sellers who are now wondering if they should buy back in at a loss or wait to see if it will fall further and give them another bite at the cherry.
When the big dips happen, the emotions can get a bit wild and make decisions without much thought, acting on intuition. People hear "trust your intuition" and think that it has some magical qualities, but intuition is directed by experience, so if the past hasn't well informed it well, the resulting actions based on feelings can be pretty poor. It is also why so much of what works is not what the crowd does - because the best move is counterintuitive, while crowds work on averages.
Speaking about averages, an interesting topic came up in a session today where my clients were talking about species evolution and birth rates, noting that at least locally, it seems that the people who on average have more children, are not necessarily the brightest, nor the healthiest. What is interesting in this regard is what it means for society in general, as the averages will change over time, seeing an increasing proportion of the population potentially with more health issues and intelligence issues. Again, this is talking about averages here, but in time, it would affect culture and society in a number of ways, from social proofing behavior in society, to voting patterns for the government. The evolution of our species ends up being driven by the averages of our society and if we are getting more ill and stupider, it would explain a lot of the current world.
Is anyone feeling sick or stupid after the market retraction yesterday?
While I did feel the shift in my body at the market dip and watching an enormous amount of value drain out of my portfolio, I noted that I didn't get the pit in my stomach that used to be there earlier, even though earlier the amounts concerned were far less. While I sat and had a cookie and a chai latte at a café, I actively reflected on my body and searched for that hole in the stomach, but couldn't find it. I see this as progress.
Rather than desensitization from having gone though this multiple times over the years, what has actually happened is that my understanding of crypto has shifted heavily from where it started, it has evolved. When I started I was deep in debt and financially struggling, so the potential gains took precedence, but as I learned through participation that there is more to this than money, my belief in the industry has grown. This belief has been verified and justified in several ways over the year and while there are no guarantees of outcome, I act toward that belief of the future being fulfilled.
In some way, it is like a religion, where people may believe that if they act in a certain way based on the doctrine, they will end up with a certain result, reincarnation, heaven, hell. Belief is powerful and it is a far better motivator than money, which we can see illustrated in regard to pay rises in the workplace, that do not motivate for more than a couple months, as the raise gets absorbed into life activity. However, when a person believes in what they are doing, they are motivated even if they are underpaid or unpaid - which is the mindset of an entrepreneur who believes in what they offer and the market potential it has.
So far, I am unpaid in crypto, as I have not used any of it, making all of the token value theoretical. This is useful for me in many ways, as while I can visualize them as having value and practical usage, I am also disconnected from them as a source of value. It gives me more ability to make decisions, experiment, fail, lose and also make gains, without looking at it as "I lost a house" yesterday. I still think these things through of course, but it has less chance of forcing me into an emotional kneejerk reaction.
I wrote a post the other day about "Hype and Panic" considering how so many people are polarized in their reactions to the market and how they can swing from one extreme to the other very quickly. What has happened for me is, through cycles of ups and down, emotional swings, good and bad decisions and reflection on it all, I have changed my beliefs, affected my intuitions and built new habits that make me far less volatile in a volatile environment. I don't get too excited in the ups, I don't get too depressed in the downs, I take a relative band of middle ground, not insensitive to fluctuations or my emotions surrounding them, but not kicked around like a football from one end of the field to the other and back again.
Many people are thinking about what they can do to mitigate loss or take advantage of the current situation, which is good, unless the decisions are coming from intuitions based on fear, which many are. However, if a range of conditions have been evaluated and considered and processes have been put in place before the dips on how to react, the intuitive reactions are more likely to be aligned with better decision making, as they were developed when emotions weren't running high. Most people know they should prepare, but how many actually do? I know that for a long time, I didn't and even now, I make a lot of mistakes where I say, "I should have known" - but didn't do the work to know enough to make it a default reaction when needed.
But it is all a learning experience and I find that the people who are the least emotionally reactive to the market fluctuations are those who believe in the future of crypto. They have built up the understanding that while there is a lot of value to be made (and lost), the long term view is about the industry itself, a growing industry that is still in its infancy with a great deal of infrastructure still to be built and usecases added, from both the existing needs of business and participants, and the new to come through opportunity for innovation.
It is easy to look at price trend and get affected by the stock-to-flow model or the hype surrounding DeFi or Meme coins, but long-term, the industry has to satisfy business needs, which in turn have to satisfy consumer needs. This takes time to build and evolve, but every industry went through this phase and all the ups and downs associated with it. But the thing tat pushed them through it all, were the people who believed enough that it could be done, that they went out and did it.
Do you believe that the gold is there?
If so, keep digging.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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This makes me remember a saying that was trending among Nigerians 'get out while you still can'. A lot of people got in expecting the outcome to always be income, not researching the risks involved. I saw stories of people who lost their school tuition and rent. Sad but I laughed.
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Shortsightedness is a problem for everyone, but even more so when we feel we are in need. It is not just for investing, desperation rarely gets good results.
I didn't even know we were hurting until no-coiners started DMing me about it.
"How's your crypto doing mate?"
"What do you think of bitcoinsimpleandhonest.com? The guy takes your money and then invests it for you. He even has a trading bot. I just need to send him $1000 to get started."
"Hey mate. You didn't reply so I went ahead and did it. The tracker says my $1000 is already worth $1003. This is great, I see why you like it."
"This is great. I get a bonus multiplier for each friend/family member who invests, so I'm spreading the word. I should've listened to you earlier. At this rate, I'll be a millionaire in no time."
Interestingly, I also perceived these vibrations without much discomfort in my stomach. Probably, the reason for everything is the food (information) with which I try to fill it :)
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"You are what you eat"
Don't eat hype or fud :)
I believe the gold is there indeed, but there is surely no shortcut to it.
Getting your emotions under control as you describe is also only achieved over time. As you say...I think we've all been there where you got that pit in the stomach...lol. This is the first time for me to not hit "panic-stations" when the market does its thing. I'm still going ..." oh oh...here we go", but at least I'm not losing any sleep over it.
I totally agree with this statement. When money is the motivator you get...
as you put it.
Do you find this an interesting evolution I yourself?
I think culture these days encourages emotional immaturity and outbursts for attention. It doesn't make for a strong investor mindset.
I find it very interesting. Although nothing tangible, it makes me feel like I am experiencing growth as a person. I become mentally stronger and capable of making more informed decisions of my own.
You couldn't have said this better. And only by taking responsibility for your own personal growth, can you know the difference between noise with no substance versus who and what you need to pay attention to. And this is crucial in developing a strong investor mindset.
Do you find this an interesting evolution I yourself?
I think culture these days encourages emotional immaturity and outbursts for attention. It doesn't make for a strong investor mindset.
I think if I hadn't taken out the gains that I did a month or so ago I probably would have been feeling much differently about yesterday than I was. Also if I had sat down with my friends who have been wanting to buy in to crypto and gotten them onboarded when the price was at $50k+ I probably would have felt much worse. Overall, I am happy to see the prices rebounding. I hope that continues at least for a little bit. I would like to take out a little more before I need to settle into a bear pattern.
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But, if they had got in a bit earlier, they might have been ready to take advantage of 30K bitcoin too, rather than next week or month getting it at 50K again :)
The bear is likely still some time off - there is opportunity.
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I know that, but they likely wouldn't have seen it the same way. New people only tend to look at what is right in front of them. It takes time for them to see the big picture. I hope that is the case! I need just a little more to be set for bear season.
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For me it is almost the same. I have taken small amounts of profit a few times, but overall, I've build up my portfolio by blogging and most of it is money I've never had in the bank. That way, it doesn't feel like a real loss when things goes down. As a result, this drop in prices has been exciting more than anything else. There's hardly ever a day where so many of my orders get hit and I'm just riding the waves these last few days, buying and selling. There's no thought about mitigating losses, I'm just thinking "Cool, I'm getting a few more Euro's, BTCs, ETHs, DOTs, KSMs, ADAs, etc. etc.".
(Okay, not full BTCs, ETHs and such, I'm not actually rich ;-) )
It really helps to not be emotionally attached too much and just see it as play money. It means better decisions and eventually, some nice bonuses when I do cash out a little.
Wouldn't it be nice to be able to buy in full amounts of BTC and ETH? :D
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Oh yes, that would be very nice indeed!
The market does what the market does. There is jo way I can have influence on it.
But I have taken out small profits from my crypto portfolio because I do want to suffer from FOMOOP.
The Fear Of Missing Out On More Profit 😁
This market situation did gave my the ideal situation to buy back some tokens at half the selling price.
When I sell tokens I prefer to convert then to a stable coin and wait what the market does. If it rises too much it will be used to decrease my overall Fiat investment, if the market decreases I can buy more tokens back then I did sell.
The ultimate goal is leave a healthy crypto portfolio behind and to decrease my fiat investment to 0.
Cheers,
Peter
Good work. I made a couple of small decisions in this regard that perhaps, 10 years from now will see some profit ;D
This is a good way to go! I did a little of this too, but didn't have much stable. My plan is to make sure I have more next time
Hopefully it doesn't take long. My fiat investment is well covered, my time investment maybe not :D
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Hard to tell :) You do put enough efforts in your post, but also do get decent rewards for it. The replying on comments and on other posts cannot directly related between time and reward, that is an investment in building your brand.
I mean all the time staring at charts :D
A !BEER on that :)
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BEER.Still a tough day for many but with some experience it really does help to put things into perspective. 30% drops are common and frequently happen, sometimes we get something a bit more devastating but it's all inevitably part of the journey. Here's to the market bouncing back in due time!
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I wish I was more prepared for the 30% drops, but I guess to really take advantage - I should quit my jobs and stare at the markets full time :D
Mild disappointment. I thought "digging for gold" mean you literally went out to a local creek and panned some gold up to add to your collection. 😅
:D
Have you ever panned for gold?
When I was down south I would pan the odd time in the North Sask river and found some fly-poop-sized specks of gold, but it never really amounted to anything. I needed to be closer to the Rocky mountains lol.
The last thing I panned was some paydirt bought online because I live in Nunavut and 9 months of winter gets really frickin' boring. This way I could pan for gold inside! Plus I wanted to try and make a 3d printed gold sluice so that when I go back down south I can head to the Rockies and find even more of that gold I've been longing for!
Lol - so you buy dirt online to pan? That sounds like a scam :D
I have never panned for gold, but there are a few places around Australia it is still possible, but I think they lace the streams with dust now. In Finland where I live, I have never heard of people panning or fossicking.
Some can definitely be a scam, I went over this a bit in one of my latest blogs. Paydirt is mores meant for beginners to guarantee they have success and learn proper panning techniques or for people who can't get out to gold bearing spots, say people who live in Florida, for example. There's no gold in that state! Or people who have disabilities which prevent them from gathering their own pay dirt.
I definitely won't be buying more. I wanted a small amount of gold just to do my testing with on the 3dp sluice so I can gauge how much gold I'm losing before I go and shove it in a creek and find it out the hard way.
I live in Nunavut and I know there's gold here, but because it's Inuit land I don't think it would be ethical for me to take their gold.