I tend to second guess myself a lot, where I umm and aah over the pros and cons but often end up doing very little. This is part of the reason I am not a very good consumer as I tend not to make impulse buys on things, perhaps because I am afraid of buyer's remorse - once bitten, twice shy as they saying goes. I think that this has crept into my trading habits as well, where I am quite conservative, considering I am in crypto which is very volatile.
Back in 2017, I feel that I was "bolder" with my trading approach and was more willing to roll the dice on quick trades, where as these days it is more buy where I think it is low, set a sell where I think it might go and then wait. This does work on occasion, but it doesn't take advantage of the cycles between the low and the high.
The other thing that I have noticed in myself is that once I buy, I feel "attached" to the purchase making it harder to let go of, even if I don't really care about the token itself. I used to trade a lot of shitcoins for profit, but as this hold mindset has crept in, it means I end up holding a lot of shitcoins.
I was talking to my wife about this and I wonder how much it has to do with our changing financial conditions over the last few years, as it has become a little "easier" so there isn't as much of the must do in it. It isn't that we are actually making any more income as such, it is more that we have created a more stable routine around our life that was thrown into disarray at the birth of our daughter, due to various factors. There is the false sense of somewhat security and when secure, it is easier to be conservative.
Again, I don't actually consider my crypto position secure, nor my life, but in comparison to what it was, the feel of desperation is not currently present, so the Hail Mary doesn't have to return in a short time frame. I am very glad that I did take this approach back then though as while it was pretty stressful, I managed to build a position that I might not be willing to build now.
The Hail Mary approach is still valid, it is just that it is getting pushed out in time, meaning that under current conditions, I can afford to look long. Current conditions are getting increasingly unstable however, as governments are expanding their debt model astronomically and borrowing from the future eventually comes back to haunt as the present catches up.
I was reading that the current Australian budget planned for dealing with the pandemic is 25x larger than what it was during the GFC back in 2008 - which is incredible. That is an additional future 500B injected by the government into the economy and I suspect that large amounts of it are going to pool in very narrow divots, rather than be spread widely. These decisions are going to affect the future investment models of everyone globally in ways that are going to be hard to counteract and I feel that while a few will gain heavily, the majority will lose ground.
This makes me wonder if now is the time that I should become bolder in my own activity and start to "remember my roots" a little. While the current climate for me is somewhat stable, the uncertainty about the economic future is certainly there. This means that rather than the sense of desperation that likely affected my trading habits 4 years ago, the potential desperation that may arrive in the future is the driver.
I don't know if other people get the feeling of an imminent implosion, but for several years we have often discussed the fragility of the economy and that was prior to the Corona pandemic. With the only response being to "print more money" to pay the bills, it seems that the governments are out of options and are making moves to keep the passengers entertained while the ship sinks - while the life rafts are filled up with the privileged.
Crypto is a bit of a game for me, as is life itself, but of course it has the potential for real world ramifications and perhaps, can offer an additional lifeline of support in trying times. But as I was saying to my wife, in order for the line to have practical value, it has to be tied to something - participation is necessary and these means risk exposure, every time. How much risk we are open to is up to us, but I get the sense that the largest risk a person can currently take is hoping that other people will look after them.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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I feel like I am really similar to you. I also am probably very risk adverse, so I will never see the big benefits because I am not willing to make the big moves to go all in on something. I just want to be a little bolder and take some risks. It's just a matter of getting myself in the position where I feel comfortable doing that. Which I guess is kind of counter intuitive, but I am who I am!
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I don't know what a good approach is, but taking 5 or 10 percent to play with might be a good start. Perhaps the exposure will have a desensitizing effect to some degree.
I hold too many coins at the moment so will have to slowly trim them down and go into what I consider stronger holds.
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Yes, that is part of my problem too, I hold a little bit of a lot of things.
!ENGAGE 20
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ENGAGEtokens.Financial instability is almost always going to be around in one form or another, or at least during my life it has been. I know that people look back on and see the housing bubble burst in America as a cautionary tail to owning/buying a home, this burst bubble syndrome only lasted a few years. The dot com bust was more of a consolidation of energies/ideas than a true bust. The fuel price increase in the 70's and then again later, it is still hard for me to believe that at one point in my life a gallon of gas was only $0.25, and now it is $3.47.
Gold/Silver and other precious metals/gems used to be the fallback stance of the wealthy. Then they started using oil, and homes. Now it is crypto, and that is some thing that a lot of people can use. I don't know why bitcoin has gone up, I have read that it is institutional investors, but there comes that why now question and how much of the buying has to do with fear on the part of the wealthy that traditional fall backs are just not going to cut it this time around.
Exactly. Nothing was lost, it just got more concentrated.
I think so. It is just the beginning, but I believe people are starting to recognize that their money isn't safe in a low interest environment where governments print money. They can still benefit from the conditions, but they don't have to risk their own wealth by holding cash.
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!ENGAGE 20
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ENGAGEtokens.,,I tend to second guess myself a lot, where I umm and aah over the pros and cons but often end up doing very little.''
Sometimes I am also guilty of overthinking things.I don't know if trying to predict every possible outcome was born due to me playing chess with my dad when I was a kid or it simply is part of my nature. I don't do this all the time and at times this is not a bad thing. Still sometimes I wish that I could think less and act more. It is easy to come up with reasons why something can't be done. Some of them might be real others imaginary. But in the end the only way to know if it is possible is to try it.
By the way, using a
>at the start of a sentence is a better was for quoting, as it makes it easier to read.I am jealous. I wish I had the kind of mind that can play chess - my chess game could be described as "erratic at best" :)
It is hard to decipher the real and imaginary, as what can feel real, might very much be imaginary. We protect ourselves using the fear we feel, even though that fear can arise in circumstances that aren't dangerous at all.
Just think about the fear of standing on the edge of a cliff. Or the fear of approaching a pretty girl at a bar. I know people who would prefer to stand at the cliff edge.
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Thank you.
To be fair I have not played chess in many years. Sometimes I would win or lose against my classmates but I don't think that I won a single time against my dad. Even when he was starting the game without some figure. So I am by no means great at it.
I don't know or understand this feeling cause I am still very new to everything but I am certain about one thing, and that is that anything is done with desperation never always turns out really good. I am glad you aren't so desperate as in 2017 or the last four years.
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I agree. It was a pretty terrible time for my family and life was a very messy. The desperation was general survival at that point and it wasn't only a financial thing, there were many factors involved. It was a stressful time, but experiencing and handling it was valuable. I also think that "desperation" might be the wrong word for that period from my perspective, but I think it illustrates it better than having to explain all of it in detail.
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Oh, I see!
I understand it would have taken a lot to explain everything in detail but I am glad that you pulled through it whatever it was.
Cheers!
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Way to explain it. I was the same way back '16, '17. The more I learn and the longer I'm in the game, the more long term I think.
Do you get the feeling that you should be a little bolder with a small percentage of holdings?
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You nailed it again. Really, other than the part about daughter, you stole the words from my mouth.
And I still keep thinking I'm being too conservative too. I keep checking, I still could be making moves, and I'm still gun shy.
I think I will start experimenting more again.
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!ENGAGE 20
ENGAGEtokens.I've been watching/waiting for an implosion and/or bloody revolutions for a while and optimistically hoping it won't happen and that we'll just kind of meander where we need to be, I don't like implosions or explosions or bloody revolutions because they're messy and annoying x_x