Up 20% and looking ahead

in LeoFinance4 years ago

Get ready for HIVE to go up about 400% in the next few days - because I just powered some up to extend my investment in by 20% - so now I am sitting at around 120K HIVE. I have been buying it on various exchanges for a little while now and it was just kind of sitting there looking glum, so I thought I would put it to work.

I don't maximize my curation activities in any way at all, which is pretty obvious by the amount of comments I vote on, but since in the last 7 days I have earned about 230 HIVE in curation, that should go up by around 40 HIVE over the next 7 days. Not a huge amount and with a street value of about 10 dollars US, it isn't going to change my life in any meaningful way. However, it does add that same amount to those I vote on and for some, those little bits can add up.

A lot of people scoff at the amounts they earn here but personally, I have always been grateful for every bit as I have a positive outlook on the future value of all of this in relation to the sunk costs and have a bit of history with where it once was. 40 STEEM was momentarily worth 320 dollars US at the All Time High (ATH) and while it wasn't there for long, it was sitting around half that for little while too.

For those who have only been here since the decline in price across the markets but who were powering up, the pump of HIVE up toward 1 dollar gave them a little taste of what it might be like. When it does really fire, the craziness and emotional reaction doesn't necessarily move in a straight line with price - nor does the activity around the blockchain.

Competition on the reward pool will likely move 5 -10x as people not only post more, but many "returnees" come back into vie for the HIVE in the pool, because they think that now that price is up, it is a good time to earn. Yeah, it is a good time to earn dollars, not a great time to earn HIVE. The best time to earn HIVE is also the best time to buy HIVE, at the lows. Perhaps people who don't buy don't pay attention to this or something - they don't spend much time considering how the pool works, they just worry about the value of their 7-day payouts.

The value of a post is very difficult to ascertain as it is tied to a current price, but it doesn't take into account the price that HIVE will be sold at. Some have earned at highs and sold at lows, some have earned at lows and sold at highs. The current price of HIVE is 25 cents, so a 1 dollar earning is 4 HIVE and sold now, will be worth 1 dollar. Sold at 4 dollars however, it will be worth 16x as much or a gain of 1600% - When something is sold matters.

However, at that 4 dollar price, people will likely distribute wider (as well as there being a lot more scam and spam) and therefore, less HIVE will go to individuals, as no matter how good posts might be, most will not consider them worthy of 1000 dollars. At the last ATH, there was no EIP in place which meant there was some highly overrewarded posts with no incentive to flag them down as the real and current costs was far too high for most people to warrant paying out of their pocket - so bad behavior was rampant.

This time though, there would be a 2.5 downvote allowance and there are some very large HIVE accounts that will apply their allowance to bring into line a lot of the values, including me - which is not a large account. However, with a current vote of around 1.75 now, 16x up from here I would have a 28 dollar vote, which while far less than the whales and large orcas, still will pack a punch. A 500K HIVE whale would have a vote of around 160 dollars.

This means that the next bullrun is going to be seeing some very interesting dynamics in the ecosystem and it should result in higher distribution as the disincentive to turn a blind eye to abuse has been taken away. While a lot of people don't like downvotes, I think that when HIVE is getting into the dollars and especially pushing toward 10 and past, tey will be glad that they exist, as watching people take 3000+ dollars a day out on absolute shit like was happening is pretty soul crushing, while struggling for a dollar or two.

And this is where the distribution will really matter and those who are community orientated will have a huge effect on the ecosystem, as currently the 800K of Hive in the pool is worth about 200K dollars - but at 4 dollars for example, it will be that 16x up, meaning it will be worth 3.2 million. That goes a lot further, even though the HIVE coming out of the pool is the same.

What people need to realize of course is that future is highly uncertain and that makes investing into it very risky - but for those who do, the rewards could be incredibly valuable - as they should be for early investors into a risky and immature industry. Every industry ever created has come saddled with risk and has been supported by people willing to take a chance on it - the difference with this one is that hundreds of millions (if not a couple billion) people can take part as there is very low costs of participation and almost no infrastructure outlay past what people already use, a smartphone and an internet connection.

This is one of the major reasons that people who are looking to expand their economic opportunity further than they might had the possibility before (or ever) should be seriously looking into it and seeing if they can understand and then still be willing to put something in - if they are willing to accept the risk model and face losing it all. For most of these people, the traditional markets are far out of reach and are so mature and manipulated, that even if they do get in, the returns are going to be relatively insignificant. This doesn't mean they shouldn't investigate and diversify of course, but diversity also means looking at the potential for return - and the jury is not only still out on the ceiling of crypto, they haven't even started evaluating the little evidence there is.

There are many streams of value for me on Hive that lay outside of the economic potential, but the possibility of the financial aspects adds a highly compelling and attractive layer of gamification into the experience that makes it far more complex and enjoyable that the social media models that are targeted to end users, not owners.

Again, for many, curation returns might not seem significant, but let's say that with 120K HIVE I can get 400 HP, that means with 12,000 around 40 is possible and with 1200 around 4 is possible. That isn't much, but 1200 HIVE is currently worth about 400 dollars. This means that for a complete payback from curation alone, Hive would need to sit around 4 dollars for around 25 weeks. Is that a long time? Yes - for some - but at that point the 1200 principle will also be worth 4800 dollars and the only thing that would have to be sold is the added curation portion to cover the initial buy, but at that price, selling a little more might not be a bad idea, if buying in at 25 cents.

In the real world, people don't talk about money and earnings as culturally it is "unacceptable" and base behavior, but the interesting thing is that it is one of the things we should be talking about as it affects our lives heavily and is also the area where there is a massive amount of disparity. A lot of the disparity is built into the system, but some people are able to close the gaps by using what they know or taking some risks.

Everyone wishes they bought into Apple or Google early, but they likely didn't even know they existed at the time, let alone had the opportunity to put in. We are all on Hive, we all have the opportunity, but some are only interested in what they take out without considering the timing at all.

So in my experience, whenever I make a significant power up, the price moves upward and I have no liquids - if this happens this time too - you are welcome. :)

Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]

Posted Using LeoFinance

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I don't maximize my curation activities in any way at all

Nonetheless, you must be doing something right, on the order of 11% annualized ROI.

Irrationally, I was initially opposed to the move from 75/25 to 50/50, but I’ve come to see what a brilliant change it was, strongly incentivizing staking.

I can't do the math, but 11% seems low, doesn't it? I think I use about 40- 50% of my votes on comments most days, so that must drag back the results as they are unlikely to get any multiplier votes and don't get over the 16 HP barrier.

but I’ve come to see what a brilliant change it was, strongly incentivizing staking.

I think it has had an affect, and the 2.5 DVs certainly have. I hope people are getting used to them now :)

This calc uses your last 7 days of curation against your current effective power (so it's showing 10.3% APR on curation but that's using your last 7 days of curating without that 20% added stake). So if you take 10.3 * 1.2 you're probably getting about a 12.36% APR on your HP currently.

Posted Using LeoFinance

Nice! and cheers, I haven't been using hivestats much yet, I will give it another look.

BTW, you guys are on the ball - thank you.

Thanks for the compliment, always happy to make stuff that's useful for the community 🦁

Hope you like Hivestats as well. We're still only about 2 weeks in but we'll keep adding stuff as time goes on.

Posted Using LeoFinance

Yep, last time I really tried it was around the launch, so not a great indicator of much at that point. It is working better now :)

It was a ballpark calculation based on 270 HP times 52 weeks divided by 120,000 HP yielding a 11.7% ROI.

But that doesn't factor in re-investing earnings so the net returns would probably be higher.

Yep, I did a quick (similar) calculation, the reinvestment will add a little, but not a huge amount I would assume. Still - it all adds up :)

Same here, and I was wrong. There are so many awesome curators now, that 50/50 is worth it.

I tell you, this bull run had better get a shift on!

It will arrive in a few hours on the back of my largest PU :D
I think the "big one" is still more than a year away, but I like the look of things going up consistently at the moment.

It's always the easy that you post up something and the market goes bonkers when you have no liquid funds, lol

It will be an eventful year!

It has happened a couple times this year already. If I hadn't PU, I would have been able to up to 8 times as much :D

Damn it, you have to hang fire in future! :OD

I think I drop cover fire more often ;D

off topic, but good to see more and more people using leofinance for their posts :D

Posted Using LeoFinance

Yeah, @rollandthomas reminded me to do so a day or two ago. This is the first time I have used it since coming to Hive as I have been going straight to the community instead.

You helped a little with this. At least you helped me find Leofinance. :P

Posted Using LeoFinance

Wow, 120k puts you in the top 150 stakeholders, that's no small amount! I'm targeting baby Orca (full Orca/ "Mother Forca") by the end of the year but this is inspiring me to potentially open up the purse strings a little bit.

I'm also crap at curation so I've delegated/leased out the majority of my HP to guilds who know what to do with it (curie, OCD, curangel) and leave enough for me to use the platform as a casual/social/part time user (how I envisaged using Hive/Steem in the first place as an eccentric creative bloke).

I joined in March 2018 so was seeing the beginning of the downward momentum in price but decided to buy up when the bottom had been reached around Aug 2019-Jan 2020, then all hell broke loose, went up to $1, I was like say whaaaaaaaat, then things seemed to have gone catastrophically bad on Steem so looking for a chance to get out and in 3 weeks, will have finished the conversion to Hive.

Like you, I have no liquid but nae bother, I haven't spent more than I can afford to lose and having fun with it, which is the most important thing 😃

The end of the year doesn't feel that far away at the speed that this year has moved :) Top 150 sounds alright, I think this is the highest I have been.

Steem isn't looking pretty, except for the 20-30 accounts raping it - oh, they are the witnesses....

I haven't spent more than I can afford to lose and having fun with it,

The no more than can afford to lose is important - some can't afford to lose anything, some won't ever risk a loss, even if they could.

That's true, it's somehow flown by despite spending half of it mostly confined to 4 walls in the patented Havey's Man Cave! I think you'll continue to rise a bit more as powerdowns on Steem and some powering down on Hive finished up. Really can't believe the behaviour over there...

I'd also like to say that having fun is probably just as important, if not more important than to focus on the money side. Was speaking to Galen about this actually that I never (intentionally) mention the money aspect of Hive and try to keep it as the fun social media it is with some added perks you wouldn't get by having a facebook page (from a music producer's point of view). It's slowly but surely working and just nursing a few new musicians over here 🙂

If less people are posting, Does it means that my return on curation will be high.(number of HP received.)

Because I felt I got more Hive than steem for my same SP/HP when hive started.

Or it is just that my curation skills was increased or I am just lucky?

Posted Using LeoFinance

Less people (stake) voting is the thing that matters in this case - Less people draing on the pool. For a very simple example to show how it kind of works, without worrying about author rewards :D

Imagine there is 100 HIVE in the pool for curators and 10 voters with 10 HIVE stake each. They all vote (we aren't worrying about when they vote etc either) and they each take 10 of the HIVE from the pool. Now if 5 stop voting completely, the 5 that still vote will split the 100 between them, getting 20 each. Essentially, with half less voting stake, everyone who does vote will get twice as much.

It is kind of the same with author rewards, with more people competing for the pool, the wider, but lower the spread goes.

This is very simplified, but I hope it is enough to give you the idea of what happens.

tagging @zemiatin here too

Make sense, because not everybody started curating from the day 1 in hive.

Thanks for explaining.

No worries. I am not great with all the specifics, I just hold a general idea :)

I am curioous about this too.

Posted Using LeoFinance

Nice one :)
Money on exchange is boring!
Unless you have the patience and actually make some good trades :)

Although most of the people loose when trading.

Unless you have the patience and actually make some good trades :)

Patience sometimes - the "good trades" is rare :D

You have the right idea, buy low...sell high, wash-rinse and repeat.

What's going to propel HIVE higher...as curating won't be able to carry HIVE for the next 5-10 yrs? What's your thought on the matter as your response might give short term mindsets a longer term vision for HIVE?

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Curating will be a big earner for early investors, but I think it will turn into curating for investment itself to support a whole range of businesses. Of course SMTs will be needed for this for end user earnings. In this scenario, the HIVE investors create a stable base for the infrastructure so that all other applications and experiences can build upon them. I also think that eventually, HIVE won't go to rewards at all, just witnesses and investors. The more investors and people powering up now, the more stable that base becomes.

Every time I powered up, the exact thing happened. Hive went up, not a lot, but still...

I don't trade pretty much never cause I suck but I wish that at least once in my life I will have some liquid Hive to sell high and buy low lol and after power up hehe. :D

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I don't trade so much these days, but I do a little to keep somewhat in "practice" which means, screwing up a lot :DD

Cheers for the post, and for powering up! I think you're what they call a "whale", with that much HIVE at stake. With the amount of momentum we've been getting on as an ever growing community, HIVE will most likely start mooning soon enough.

It's amazing to see how much we've accomplished in just these past few months, and it looks like we're just getting started. Now, you're going to let it moon ever higher 💸🚀!

An orca starts from 50K and goes all the way through to 500K - I am a long way off the "real whale" :D

I am looking forward to some mooon action as even without liquids, there is still the increasing vote value to use and earn on :)

That's quite so. Even without liquidating into fiat, HIVE still has tremendous value for curating content on the Chain, especially with the amount that you hold. For now, I'm just a wee little minnow...

The vast majority of us were minnows once :)

Baby steps first, and then onto the moon!

You look at this the same way I do.Everything has value and whether it is 1 Hive or 50 Hive growth per day it is still growth and you are getting bigger. Nice power up and hopefully was hoping for Hive to drop so I can convert Steem at a better rate. Big difference from having 30 000 or 40 000 Hive and timing is crucial.

Yeah, I was hoping for a spike in Steem and a drop in Hive, that never really came when I was looking :D

Thank you for your explanation of the reward system. I still remember posts in 2018th which had more than a thousand dollars as a payout. Anything can happen and Hive, as a brand, hasn't seen those levels yet.

ps. I just hope to get 2000 dollars from my 500+ HIVE to get out of my debts. If it goes higher, I will only be happy.

Peace and love!

There is a fair way to go (most probably) before we see 4 dollar Hive, and by then, you might have a lot more than 500 :)

That's right! Working my way up every single day I got.

Congrats :D
I'm having trouble understanding the numbers, but that's on me ^^

Also it kind of depends who's comparing the earnings here versus other options available. I was stoked to meet someone who did art for Disney few years back and wasn't surprised when they stopped posting. I hope they start posting again eventually and more professionals to join and be able to earn well for sharing their skills :)

It definitely does depend on who is posting and comparing to. Like most places, professionals actually don't do so well as they rarely have the time, energy and will to put in the effort required to build, as they already have a career that pays. Celebrities do better because they have a following already.

I used to struggle with the numbers and still do at times in some areas :)

they rarely have the time, energy and will to put in the effort required to build
.. To build again. They already did but all the effort to build at least once before to become professionals. I'm somewhere in between for now, but I keep blog and work art separate :)

yes, that is right . they have already done it. Also, not every career is suited for making a lot of a splash on social media, otherwise everyone would be doing it.

I can only go on how much I earn as a professional and if things go very well here, this will make a lot more for the work put in - as to get the same in my job might take 20 years. However, it also might go to zero - which is why I work. At current prices, for some what I get is a lot, but I live in scandinavia and it doesn't make too much of a dent - but would be nice to use. With the effort I put in though and have done for a long time, I am not looking for a bit extra, I want world changing - and I literally mean world changing. Participation here is a pathway toward a new economic model that is better for all and me being a part of it is working toward that end. I don't want to buy a better position in the current system, I want a better position for everyone in a new system.

I believe I've told you before: My financial advice is simple. Don't do as I do.

I rarely have more than a cursory amount of liquid lying around. Because for me the entire value is in the voting power. I check the value of my account from time to time, but it's mostly just curiosity. Though I have to say that the USD I invested in steem (far from the high or the low) is now more than covered by the value of my Hive account. Yay me, I'm a stinking genius.

I do hope you are right, though. More worth = more people and more activity. If a certain % of the new people make solid content my life is enriched. I've never sold a single steem or hive, I've no interest.

Unfortunately, I'll have some steem to convert soon. Probably Monday. That could kill your bull market pretty fast :) Sorry about that.

Yes, you have told me before :)

The account value is kind of meaningless to me and I rarely even have a look unless I chance upon it. I do think about the potential future value though.

Though I have to say that the USD I invested in steem (far from the high or the low) is now more than covered by the value of my Hive account. Yay me, I'm a stinking genius.

Go up from here and it is all win :)

If a certain % of the new people make solid content my life is enriched.

And this time, I hope there will be more to help find them and, more to help them stay. Price is a terrible retention mechanism with this much volatility.

That could kill your bull market pretty fast :) Sorry about that.

:D I wouldn't mind a heavy dip!

Okay, I will go power up my washers today Lol.
No matter how long it takes, as we are here for keeps!
Great post and may you continue to grow!

I hope that at those highs, my vote helps you better do your tasks offchain :)

There is indeed a heart underneath all of that smart veneer hahaha.

We are all on Hive, we all have the opportunity

One of the reasons I’m back with HIVE full time it’s giving opportunities to everyone to Earn, Invest and build.

Congratulations on increasing your HIVE stake and I’m happy to be connected with you again

One of the reasons I’m back with HIVE full time it’s giving opportunities to everyone to Earn, Invest and build.

You can lead a horse to water - but it is all opt-in to drink :) thankfully.

Congratulations on increasing your HIVE stake and I’m happy to be connected with you again

Welcome back and hopefully this time around we can all take a more mature course into the future.

Seeing HIVE jump to $1 on such a relatively small amount of hype (2 or 3 exchange listings plus 1 airdrop event) is definitely encouraging.

I think one way to reach for new peaks in terms of both price and account signups is to continually make efforts to find promotional events like Huobi's where we can put ourselves in front of the world. The main thing holding Hive back is the lack of awareness related to the use of Hive. I just saw an article recently about ghost chains like EOS/Tron where 99% of the activity is either gambling or outright provable fake volume.

Hive has real volume and real people. Not a lot of it relative to the world but we are in the top tier when it comes to crypto. The price pushing up is a way to entice newbs to take a leap of faith on Hive. Sometimes I wish I could just transplant my brain into other people so they can actually see what Hive is. There is so much misunderstanding out there.

p.s. your HP growth is lookin like a SpaceX rocket 🚀

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I just saw an article recently about ghost chains like EOS/Tron where 99% of the activity is either gambling or outright provable fake volume.

It has been an issue with them since the start - washtrading is exceptionally high on EOS (never looked into Tron - but I assume so)

Hive has real volume and real people.

It is the real people aspect that has immense value and I think we need to attract more based on this - we definitely need some consumer awareness around Hive.

Sometimes I wish I could just transplant my brain into other people so they can actually see what Hive is. There is so much misunderstanding out there.

If only it could be done. If more people saw even half of what some understand here, they would be on this in a flash.

That is quite a spike! Might be the last that hits that peak, won't be the last powerup though :)

haha I believe you. Will probably see multiple launches take place from your account :)

Posted Using LeoFinance

I enjoy reading your articles on asset value. For me personally, this is the most valuable material that you create. Although, from time to time you give birth to magnificent philosophical works, which are also interesting to me.

I think a lot of people find this stuff valuable and since it is Hive content, everyone can relate to it in some way - even if they disagree. I was reminded that I hadn't posted much of this lately :)

I was reminded that I hadn't posted much of this lately :)

It is necessary to fix it :)

My biggest ever power-up, 25500, hours be the move from 1600-11500 on the Huobi listing, doh.

Thanks for powering up :D

:D yep - that's what I'm talking about. Perfect timing :D

Oh my. Up and down. Wins and losses. Things can change so fast here. I think it is quite important for those who really have some skin in the game. As a newbie, I can observe and learn

It doesn't take much skin to start, even small amounts tend to move the attention and increase learning in my experience :)

I will watch and learn

From Steem and Hive I have earned some lifelong friends. A value I’d describe as priceless.

Yep, getting to know people and making friends does make a huge difference. I think it is a drawback for many, as social media is more about being antisocial these days :D

I for one hope it does not go up, at least not until two thursdays from now. Then I will be fully divested of steem, and powered up to hive. The lower the price for me right now the better, along with being able to get more for hive for my steem, I will also have the next two weeks to fully take advantage of the delegation, and that has doubled my curation with out any real extra steps on my part to increase it.

After that, then yes a nice steady rise. It has been some time since we have seen less than 20 cents for hive, it seems to be hovering around the 22.5 cent range, next step 25 cents range, which it seems to be hanging at now, then following thursday, (the 18th) it can jump to 35 cents. Because I hope to be at Dolphin level then.

I will also have the next two weeks to fully take advantage of the delegation, and that has doubled my curation with out any real extra steps on my part to increase it.

Have you noticed the difference? :)

I don't mind some low priced Hive, I also wouldn't mind some high priced HBD :)

Oh yes my curation has definitely doubled with the delegation, the delegation pretty much doubled the amount of hive I had, so when the delegation is over, my curation should stay about 50% higher than it was pre-delegation, that is still to be seen however.

Yes higher HBD means I can buy more Hive. I am still doing the conversion route instead of buy direct, I did a couple of checks and I did get a tiny bit more hive through the conversion process than the market direct buy. But as you said, every tiny bit helps.

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This investing thing is actually confusing. Can one say investing hive is a low risk investment? Or the risks are pretty high

A lot of people scoff at the amounts they earn here

It's cents or dollars (depending on post payout and conversion to local fiat) more than they would be getting for posting the same drivel on fb or da or wherever.

I always come away from a post of yours like this one with a little more info. I thank you for that.

I joke with my wife about becoming a crypto "centillionair" someday. I tell her to watch and pick up every penny. 10k to this KrazzyTrukker would feel like a million these days.

I am happy with what I earn and loving the people I meet. It has been a win for me. Now if we can keep the price of Hive down until I finish my power down...

I was tempted to keep a few steem in, just for old times sake, being nostalgic and all.

Good luck to you, you just made another touchdown!

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