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Hello Hive Family!
I'm going to steal a little inspiration from my friend @anomadsoul and do a "thoughts from somewhere interesting - free write" style post. So today, you guys are getting "thoughts from the pool".
A few days ago I flew to Florida to visit some family and so I've been having a lot of fun enjoying the Hive pump from here. I was actually flying the day that it jumped up and so I'm not going to lie - it kind of pained me to not be able to check the price for about 6 hours while I was in the air! Other than that, I've definitely been enjoying refreshing my blockfolio and keeping an eye on the price. I'm sure that' something many of you can relate to.
As I said in a Hive post yesterday, this whole run has made me reminisce of the fun 2017/early 2018 days. It's like Hive just had it's own alt season.
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An Honest Look at Why we are Pumping
First off... I just want to say that these are just my thoughts based on what I'm seeing - but I'm sure there are all sorts of factors I won't think to include or may not know about. So here I am sharing my thoughts... and I hope you'll do the same in the comment section below and contribute to the conversation!
I think amidst all the hoo-rah and bullish excitement, it's important to ask why we are seeing such crazy price action. Of course, no one cay say with absolute certainty - but here are my thoughts!
I've seen a lot of comments on twitter saying things like it's because we have such a strong community and don't censor content like Steem does, and that we have a lot happening in terms of development.
I 100% agree that those factors are the kinds of things that contribute to long term growth and longevity of a project. The kinds of things that attract investors and cause community members and developers to dig their heels in even deeper and work harder to build this thing into something amazing. But those aren't the type of factors that generally cause a coin to double, triple or even quadrible in price within a 48-hour period.
How New Exchange Listings Factor In
Getting listed in multiple new exchanges such as Huobi and even now Binance (This is HUGE for us) are stronger indicators on a price pump, in my opinion. More options in the market = easier entry point for investors. You may or may not be surprised by this - but I honestly think there are many crypto investors who have their favorite exchanges, and if a coin isn't listed on it - they simply won't buy it. You'd think "if they want a coin enough, they'll just go to use whatever exchange it is available on" ... but that's not necessarily true.
Getting setup with a new exchange can be a massive headache. Many require KYC and have withdraw limits on particular coins and so going through the whole process of getting KYC'd, approved, linking up their bank account, etc doesn't leave them very nimble to act on the market. However, if they see price action on a coin that they want to jump in on AND it's listed on an exchange that they already have an account with - the likelihood that they'll pull the trigger and actually do something about it is much higher.
But can we really attribute this kind of massive growth to just getting listed on some exchanges? Although a stronger contender than simply being an awesome community - I still don't think it's likely that is the whole story.
How does the Huobi Promotion Play in?
For those who haven't seen the Huobi Promotion - they are currently incentivizing users to buy Hive through Huobi and they are giving away 100,000 total Hive to the top 100 people who have deposited Hive and kept it on the exchange during the promotion period - which ends tomorrow, April 28th.
I think this promotion is awesome for the Hive community (which I'll dig into a little later in this blog), but I do think we should be realistic with ourselves that once the promotion ends - we may see a big price dip.
What Happens Now?
Honestly, I'm super excited about the future of Hive and what this pump has done for our community - but I do think people should mentally prepare for a price correction. Again, I'm no market analyst (so always do your own research!), but this kind of explosive growth is almost certain to come back down.
That's not a bad thing though! Why? Because It's my hope that this price pump will net us an overall gain in the market. I keep saying this - but if we could land at a price point in the $.30 - $.40 range - that would be a massive victory because it would be about double our price point just a week ago.
Of course, I secretly hope that we keep going to the moon and settle at a new price point in the $.75 range - but I also want to be realistic and set my expectations accordingly.
A Price Correction is NOT a Failure
The main reason I want to bring this up is that I'd hate to see Hivian's get discouraged if the price corrects to something lower than it is right now. If that happens - it is normal market activity and is in no way a failure of the Hive community! If anything, the fact that we were able to have a huge run like this only speaks volumes to everything that we are building. So, please don't get discouraged, please don't stop posting, please continue building if we see a big drop in price. Again, to my point above - if this pump causes us to land on a higher overall price point than we were before - then we should all be doing a happy dance!
THe Many AMAZING Things that Have Come from this Run... that Aren't Just About the Price
I know amidst all the excitement, it's not fun to hear someone say "temper your expectations" so I thought I'd put my sunshine hat back on and talk about all of the incredible gains that have come from this run - that aren't just about the price!
Binance finally listed Hive. This is HUGE. They honestly should have done this weeks ago... but the fact that they finally did is a massive, massive opportunity for our community get in front of more people and make it easier for people to purchase Hive.
CZ tweeted about Hive. This goes along with the first point about the binance listing - but with his incredible reach and influence in the crypto community - having him tweet about being excited to list Hive is great exposure.
Incredible attention from Bittrex. I made a Hive Blog yesterday talking about this - but we were basically plastered ALL OVER the front page of Bittrex. You couldn't miss us and considering that they are one of the largest and most trusted exchanges in the industry - this is a huge win.
A Cointelegraph Article about the price jump. It may have taken a little time for the media to catch on to what's happening - but I was super excited to see that Cointelegraph did a piece about this. As the largest and most respected crypto media outlet - this kind of exposure is fantastic.
People coming back to Hive. I've had so many random DM's and comments from people that I haven't seen active in the community for a long time. This price bump has caught their attention and they are coming back to blog, and interact with the community. THIS... THIS is huge. Media attention is great, but real and active users is one of the biggest factors needed for long term growth.
People in the crypto community realizing they own Hive - and getting excited about it. I've seen quite a few people make comments about how they used to post on Steem years ago but hadn't thought about it in a long time. When they started seeing all the excitement about Hive the last few days - they realized that they actually OWNED some because of the airdrop. This caused them to log in and check it all out - which back to the point I just made about users - is super important. Getting them onto the platform and poking around may encourage them to stay.
Final Thoughts
Cheers to anyone who is still with me and has read this entire thing!! I actually can't remember the last time I sat down and spent a few hours writing, but I really wanted to share my thoughts and I hope that some of you found it helpful!
To sum things up.... I'm absolutely pumped about Hive, I think this big run has created MASSIVE long term benefits for our community, and I also think people should mentally prepare for a price correction soon.
I'd really love to hear your thoughts below! Did I miss anything that you think is important? Do you disagree with any of my thoughts/opinions? I hope that this can be an organic conversation between us all where we can all share and contribute.
Love you guys and cheers to many bright days ahead! 🚀
XO, Lea
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Yes, I agree - 30 cents is a good price today - there are many changes ahead and the price will definitely be $ 1 in the future!
Agreed! We'll get there permanently again sometime soon - and hopefully even higher!
A pretty darn solid overview about the current events regarding Hive market action 👌🏻
aww thanks Eve! Took all morning - but I'm on vacation, so why not? 😉
Not my idea of spending a holiday but if someone is obsessed with crypto, why not! 😂😅
LOL seriously... maybe i've officially lost it. 😂
Interesting perspective and more power to the community courtesy of
I hopwe all accepts the fact that for a near perfect survival, this is in no way avoidable.
Thank so much for your thoughtful comment! I just don't want people to get discouraged when the price comes back down - which it is already starting to do.
A fast price rise is nice for those wanting to sell... thankfully it also did end up resulting in some PR ... though they were pretty late to the story.
A fast price rise that is not based on 1. large influx of new users or a 2. large influx of committed investors that power up 3. large influx of ways to spend the money aka increased utility
... well that's not too impressive and helpful in the long run. A mutli-day pump is fun and can bring stories our way and hopefully sits us at a more deserved range to climb from.
Seeing that i have not seen the data of new users coming in and powering up with their newly purchased HIVE and seeing that literally no new large utility was opened up (besides maybe tipping) I can only assume the price was pure speculation and perhaps tied in large part to that competition from huobi.
I'm all for the price going up... but i'd rather it be from new users and from new utility. And i'm guessing TIPPING is not enough to push that meter too far.
True, hopefully it created a positive feedback loop though. According to Pablo our active user base has gone from 11,000 to 13,000+ the last two days. If it continues to rise at the same rate for a few more days that could help us soften the correction and maintain a price that will let people know we are here to stay. That's what I hope anyway
Yeah, that's a pretty excellent summary. I'm a little more bullish. I can see us pulling back a little, but the extra attention has to be worth something. Give it a month, and I could see us firmly around the 80-90c range.
aww thanks Matt! I'm really glad you enjoyed my writeup! Man .80-.90 would be amazing. ♥️
I enjoyed your post. The Binance listing was news to me (that's what I get for going to sleep at night) and the Cointelegraph article was just delicious reading. Now I see there is a second article listed on Cointelegraph just a few minutes ago about the Binance listing.
Oh that's great! I hadn't seen the second article yet. I'll have to go check it out!
After today and Huobi's promotion ends, I'm expecting some serious volatility to the downside as to be expected. The crypto world loves an airdrop and giveaways - I don't think it will go back down to pre-promo prices (if it does, could be for a very short period as people will want to buy up), perhaps around maybe $0.20 but could be completely wrong now seeing as Hive is on the map and has a lot of eyes on it!
I'll just keep posting regardless and have fun here. Hope you have a nice holiday!
My thoughts exactly! And I honestly think your estimations could end up being correct. The promo period ended today and we've still been able to hang in the .40-.45 range... but we'll see how that shakes out over the next few days.
Yeah we'll see but the way I see it, you are still earning the same amount of Hive/HBD for your posts as it's all taken from the reward pool anyway. It's just when it gets compared to $ or £ etc value that things change!
Anyway, don't think I've commented on your posts before so nice to meet you by the way haha!
You're lovely, girl! Following you here and on Insta!
aww thank you! I appreciate the support! 🙏🏼
i feel excited, 7 months whitout blogging today i back and i share whit allá My Friends who never back to write, hugs
aww that's awesome! Welcome back!
Thanks darling my family and friends are back to blogging they feel exciting, now we are having free hours to write lots!
Very detailed and accurate analysis. I hope with price correction, it will stay around 30 - 35 cents which is not bad.
Agreed! I'm pretty excited to see it still in the .40-.45 cent range after the contest ended... but I'd probably give it another week or so to see the true current price.
I was ready to pass this cause I’ve read enough hive related posts for a month these two days. Glad I didn’t, nice to finally see a voice of reason. It’s a good thing no doubt but nothing moves that quickly because of fundamentals and if it’s a pump it’s going to dump. I hoooooope we can stay above 50 cents in the short term though, that would still be some crazy momentum. If we stay above 30 though, that’s still positive.
Thanks so much for your kind words!! I'm really glad you enjoyed the article! I'm pretty excited to see that we are still in the .40-.45 range, even a few days after the contest has ended. I'm not going to get my hopes up for anther week or so though. Fingers crossed!
Interesting thoughts, I believe with some validity behind your conclusions. Time will tell.
Yes, exactly! That's the only thing we can be certain about... is that we don't know anything for sure and time will tell. haha
Good afternoon. I see that your site has stopped working, does this mean that your project is dead, or should we expect some updates? Could you make some announcements so that we understand whether to waste time on your coin, or forget about it. Sincerely.
Great piece, I think you are correct that we will see a big dip in price after this promotion but what do I know? Whatever its stirring up a bit of excitement about hive and that's got to be a win in the long term. As a relative newbie I hold little hive but am a avid poster and this buzz hopefully will bring in more members which has to be good. As far as markets go i'm a little lost in the wood (actually totally lost) I'm just along for the ride and like many want to see the community grow, its not all about the bucks,(well it is a bit).
Thanks for the thoughtful response! I think you nailed it that no matter where the price lands - we got a ton of attention from this, which is a great thing.
Thanks for your nice words, we shall have to see what the next few days bring but all positive at the moment.
I've always had the belief that Hive would turn out fine in the end. I do expect the price correction too. Thanks for sharing.
Thanks for your comment! I'm really glad you enjoyed my post!
True. One thing that makes me suspicious, though is seeing the support from Huobi and CZ/Binance. Those were two complicit actors in the Steem takeover who appropriated customer funds in order to help Justin Sun protect his acquisition. Of course, they're likely profit-seekers more than anything.
I totally get your point. I think ultimately - they are businesses that want to do well and listing a coin that is gaining traction ultimately comes down to just a business decision.
I agree with you on the price. Part of me feels sorry for the speculators who are buying in at this price but as the saying goes they should be doing their research. I just hope it doesn't leave Hive with a bad image.
I have high hopes for Hive but prefer a slow and steady rise
I know I actually do to. People jumping in on the price action thinking it's just going to keep going up... but then again - that's on them. My main rule for investing is to understand what you are buying. If you don't, you are probably better off investing in something you do... or take the time to learn.
You write equally well. :) You should write more.
aww thanks for the kind words!! I really appreciate it! ♥️
@coruscate, la verdad que me he identificado que lo que escribes, por momentos he revivido aquellas emociones de fines del 2017 y comienzos del 2018. Totalmente, creo que esto de alguna manera brinda confianza y demuestra el poder las criptos. Saludos!
I'm afraid I only speak English - but thank you so much for your comment! Saludos! 🙏🏼
I also feel the same! Lots of people are going crazy to the price growth we all noticed in the last 2 days but who knows what's coming next! I do agree with these being happy to the new value of HIVE because we all were waiting for something like this for the past years on steem, but I also try to keep my feet on the ground. Maybe, though, we will be surprised in a good way after this contest is over. We shall all see! :)
It's a good perspective to take!! No reason to not have fun and enjoy the run up - but to also be realistic about how it could drop. The fact that we are still hanging in the .40-.45 range is pretty great.
Pure Mind Thinking......Really Like your Approach.....Spread Knowledge.....Spread Love.....✌️ ✌️ 🤓 ✌️ ✌️
I can't tell if this is a bot comment or real... haha but I do hope you enjoyed the article and found it helpful.
Really enjoyed it.........For long time having a real critics about all the excitement going on here.......We got to Stay Focus....Long way comin' for our Community.....Good and BAd Moments.....We got to be prepare.....Spread Love....✌️ ✌️
Thanks for the response! I'm really glad that you enjoyed the article! Thanks for sharing your thoughts. 😊
Totally off topic, but about how many people were on your flight?
I think maybe 20? It was pretty empty.
I also thought that simple exchange listings wouldn't cause such a pump. My guess: watch the hacker noon interview for Koinos...
I think there are thousands of users of HIVE not aware of a huge security issue. Account recovery steps need to be taken for all of the returning STEEMit users of old.
I’m trying to encourage more creators to come back to blog On Hive .... could I get some help ? https://hive.blog/hive-148441/@borgheseglass/original-glass-art-flameworked-glass-bead #hive #posh #artist #arts #glass
Amazing run down, how long did you say it took you again? Anyway I believe I speak for all when I say we hope we settle for an even higher value, fingers crossed