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RE: SMTs Release Dates!

in #steem3 years ago (edited)

Oh geez. In my opinion better not to announce release dates at all if they are in 2019. It's not what people want to see at this time and will crash the price of Steem.

What people (and the market) want to see is a release of SMT sometime in 2018. I would honestly consider retracting this post because of the impact it could have on the market and Steem price which already is floundering.

How about don't announce any launch dates or release dates until the year it's going to be released. If it's more than 6 months away and we are in a bear market it's a forever away.

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I'd rather see firm dates that are a ways out but can/will actually get met, than vague promises of "soon" or "hopefully sometime this year". Even though 2019 is further out than many have hoped, it sounds like by very early 2019 (January) the protocol will be to a point that people can start playing around with it and writing SMT-based code. I think that is very good news!

I would agree with Tim. We are really only talking a quarter away. This has been on the roadmap for a while. If you follow the project on GitHub the check-in activity is up and the progress is happening. This is fantastic news! I'm eagerly awaiting the testnet. Time to start getting excited.

Yes. I believe we have been some variation on "soon" for nearly two years now!

Well in just 4-5 months, boom. That is fast.

I'd rather see firm dates

Agreed, Tim. It looks like people have gotten really into hating on the platform even when announcements are positive... And yet they're still here...

Reminds me of the government always kicking the can to the next generation to pay the bills.
Didn't they already tell us that SMTs would be here before the end of 2018?
Now another promise of something that is going to depend on more than just the developers of steemit.
Yes tomorrow always comes and every thing else just stays the same. NOT!

There are way to many factors in this fast changing world we live in to keep making promises for future events.
Even Elon Musk cant do that right, Look at the Model 3! And Steemit is no Tesla!

By the end of April 2018, an estimated 23% of Model 3 U.S. reservations had been refunded, possibly due to the company's announcement of delivery delays

Yeah, you're right. Steemit Inc is actually more responsible than Tesla, lately :p

Obviously, it doesn't matter about the release date except to not expect SMT before then.
I don't mind the updates, anyways.

Surely, ethereum's smart-contracts were a financial boon to the entire ecosystem. There's a good chance of SMT doing something similar for Steem. I'm interested. However, not as interested as I am in having a competitive UX on steemit.com

hey @berniesanders, lets verify, whether they are capable to launch test-net on time.

@remind-me on 15 January 2019

I love this! Great idea!

Hey @adasq, I will notify you on January 15th 2019, 12:00:00 pm (UTC)
Later! ( read more... )

Haha reddit vibes.

Hi @adasq!
You asked me in this comment to create a reminder.
It seems the time has passed!

The thing is if they just say they'll release it when it's done that is better than to announce a day so far into the future that the market could react negatively. Now the market can price in that Steem might not have SMTs at all this year and also the fact that Dan Larimer is busy working on Steem 2.0 which probably will launch sometime this year. This is actually worse than no announcement.

Now, I do think they should take all the time necessary to get SMT right because we all know the fate of the entire community and platform depends on the success of SMTs. The problem is we want communities, we want new features this year and the price of Steem has collapsed. So it's not going to be easy to tell people to wait until March 2019.

On Dan Larimer working on steem2.0 is that an actual fact or just rumours, if yes, is it a social platform just like this one? Or just coins.

Good point it may just be rumors but knowing how Dan Larimer does things I would think it's likely not just a rumor.

Even without rumors it is a safe bet to assume that a strong competitor will arrive because of EOS.

I guess we just have to wait it out. I'm in for whatever benefits the SteemiSphere and CryptoSphere at large.

I have a ton of respect for you, but on this I disagree and don't get your argument. On the one hand you're saying that Steem has no value as a protocol (strongly disagree) and that SMTs are what will give it value. Then you claim Steem 2.0 as a threat, despite the fact that Steem 2.0 is not SMTs 2.0. I do not believe it is rational to think that somehow while Dan is trying to make EOS work he can build a better Steem while at the same time the team that actually built Steem is working their butts off making it better and better. That being said, it's odd to argue first that Steem has no value and then that Steem 2.0, derivative in its very name, is a threat. Now let's assume that there is also an SMT competitor in the works. First, where's the specs? Second, where's the timeline? Third, do people believe that Dan is incapable of generating actually original ideas as opposed to just copying what we do? I actually have more respect for Dan than that, and hope he's working on something that will bring additional value to the sector. All the work we've already done on Steem and SMTs is valuable. Nothing we've done has been "fat" so if someone wants to beat us to the punch, they'll be starting from a serious deficit. This is how long building this takes. There is no other team on the planet that can build this, and certainly no team that could build it faster. Finally, we believe firmly that our approach of building an application-specific protocol will enable us to scale while simultaneously outpacing our competitors. That is our strategy and we're sticking to it. Also, the market doesn't seem to be following your logic today, but you know markets, I'm sure they'll back you up tomorrow ;)

I have a ton of respect for you, but on this I disagree and don't get your argument. On the one hand you're saying that Steem has no value as a protocol (strongly disagree) and that SMTs are what will give it value. Then you claim Steem 2.0 as a threat, despite the fact that Steem 2.0 is not SMTs 2.0. I do not believe it is rational to think that somehow while Dan is trying to make EOS work he can build a better Steem while at the same time the team that actually built Steem is working their butts off making it better and better. That being said, it's odd to argue first that Steem has no value and then that Steem 2.0, derivative in its very name, is a threat.

I do not argue that Steem has no value. If there are over a million users then clearly it has value. I am arguing that the market does not value Steem as a store of value and that the evidence shows this if we look at the chart history. I argue that something has to be done to reverse this or it's going to allow competitors of Steem to win.

How? Well first their reward pools will be bigger and so the Steem users will simply follow the rewards in most cases. So it is important that the Steem Power and Steem token become a store of value (in terms of BTC price).

That's one theory. Based on your reading of the charts, you have derived a theory on the value of Steem. My theory on why Steem is undervalued is because: 1. Most people are not even aware it is a protocol due to the success of steemit.com. 2. People do not yet understand how they can leverage an application-specific protocol without smart contracts to accomplish everything they need in a blockchain protocol and they require education. 3. All cryptocurrencies effectively move as a unit and the individual variations, whether in price or time, are illusory. 4. Eventually Steem's value proposition, which is already widely recognized, including by you, will be reflected in the price. 5. SMTs help people to see how Steem can add value to their enterprise and provide an opportunity to inject capital into the economy. But that's just my theory, like yours, I have no idea if its right. All of that being said, the witnesses are the ones to convince. Of course, I would support any proposal for which there is consensus among the community.

I have no idea what you are talking about, but, I'm buying into steem as fast as the money comes to do so...

Nothing we've done has been "fat"

Can we stop with the fat shaming ?

Boobs.

Thank you for those reassuring words @andrarchy and for all the work you and the steemit team are putting into this.

Let the countdown to SMT's begin!

Whether or not I agree with @danaedwards depends on when communities drops and what that looks like, how effective it is in keeping people around. As far as I can see, one of steemits biggest flaws is it's high turnover rate with users, because it's harder to gain users back once they quit and a lot of the great passionate people who indirectly added value to the coin have left the platform. I think a lot of this has to do with how it is organized and how finding a niche has bascially taken the form of some auto-vote club or top-down structure, rather than something like a sub-reddit that you like.

We still don't have a date on communities do we?

I'm sorry to intrude on such a great conversation, but why would Dan Larimer feel the need to piggy-back on the name of Steem with Steem 2.0? If he will have a great product, why not have its own name and announced as such, with the community built from the ground up as Steem has over the passed two and a half years?

He has created awesome projects, but so far he managed to leave them all behind. That's not very reassuring for its current project.

I don't know. Why don't you ask him? He has an account here and can respond.

Good for him, I just checked and didn't know @dan account was still active here. The question stands, lol.

"Securing a Decentralized and Prosperous EOS". See from that title he cares about the community being prosperous. That is I think what Steem is currently missing.

Steem has a lead but if EOS is more prosperous? How will Steem as a community remain in the lead?

Yep, that is a slogan. And Steem is "the blockchain of opportunity" if I'm not mistaken.

Frankly, I don't believe in prosperity for all. But I do believe in opportunity for all.

But again, both are merely slogans.

We will see what happens. So, what is now in the making (or at least in the declarations)? Steem 2.0? BitShares 3.0? Using simple logic, when will we see EOS 2.0, with @dan on a different project announcing it?

There actually was a Bitshares 2.0 and Dan did actually switch his attention to Steem and then to EOS. I don't know.

I don't agree, companies trying to take advantage of SMT will need months of preparation as well,.
If you don't announce it in advance, it will delay the adoption (you can only starting to get ready when you know if and when is coming) and some companies will look somewhere else because the uncertainty of the release dates

Agreed! Steem is on the way to "trash out" and they want to save it by attempting something which could or could not be happened in the next year!

It is better that you know that WILL happen then, isn't it?

Why don't you dare to take a bet against this date. Give the team 1 Bitcoin if they could pull the trigger until 2019... what can you say?

You want me to pay the team for something they're already being paid for? What?

Well, you were right.

Steem is stuck in the overall trend of the alt coin market and One announcement is not going to change the course of an entire bear market even if they had said 2018. All coins have been going down.

Yes I'd prefer to see 2018 as would we all. However I'd rather see hivemind first.

I'd like to see some people analyse how other companies using the steem blockchain with their own currency will impact the price of steem.

Okay but they said in this post they want to focus on SMTs. They did not mention Hive Mind coming in 2018 or anything for 2018. Big difference.

Also the problem with Steem is it can't hold value. It's literally leaking BTC value on a daily basis and now it's to the point that the reward pool is so small that it's not just unsustainable but even the community now is complaining about it. I would say the Steem developers need to do something to make Steem a better store of value while they work on SMTs.

Yes, exactly this - there should be work on fixing the economic incentives to make it better to hold SP. Better to buy SP for profitable content curation than buy SP to profit from trading votes. Why has this little bug been left on for so long?

Hivemind is a non-consensus application layer, that is independent of the blockchain code. From what I've heard, the two projects are independent and being worked on in parallel. SMTs will be the next big "blockchain" development, but that should not mean anything in regards to Hivemind development slowing down.

I would start with mixing some promoted post on the trending page

That is a good idea. A lot can and needs to be done honestly. They can do this simultaneously while building SMTs. Build the store of value for Steem whilst building SMTs.

It's following the market trend is it not? In fact the other day it crashed 10% while the majority of coins on binance went down closer to 20% ... i don't want it to go down. But I just don't think one announcement can be stronger than the general market cycle. Traders these days are trading trends not investing long term off of awesome news. (wish they were of course)

That is not the point though. The point is Steem has a community and ecosystem bigger than probably all the top 10 platforms combined yet isn't in the top 10.

Oh i didn't realize that was your point. #noted

Bitshares has a higher market cap than Steem. Can you believe that? Not saying Bitshares isn't good tech but the Steem community has over a million accounts. Even notorious sh*tcon Dogecoin has a higher market cap.

now you know what is undervalued. It is unbelievable that even Dogecoin has a higher market cap! Perfect buy time.

The lack of news about Hivemind worries me. While both HF20 and this post are very welcome, do they imply that communities have been pushed down the road, and will arrive later than SMTs? Or will there be a separate announcement?

(repeat of a comment I replied to a similar question)
Hivemind is a non-consensus application layer, that is independent of the blockchain code. From what I've heard, the two projects are independent and being worked on in parallel. SMTs will be the next big "blockchain" development, but that should not mean anything in regards to Hivemind development slowing down.

This alleviates my concerns, thank you.

I strongly disagree with your statements here. The announcement does not have a negative impact on the market whatsoever. The market is still so young that valueations of Alts strongly depend on the value of BTC.
Most altcoins dropped 90% (so did STEEM from 9 to .90) This all happend before the announcment, not after.

If you cannot wait until mid 2019 for the price to explode again, then please power down now.
I honestly believe that STEEM dropping to 50 cents or below is the best thing that could happen. This is a life changing opportunity for many people. If you don't want to buy more when the market is in crisis mode, that's your issues.

Ha, young? It's been since 2016. EOS is younger but look at it's price? What about other projects like Tron? Can we not make excuses for the poor market performance of Steem?

Even if you disagree with my opinion on the announcement it is objective fact that Steem under performs in the market chronically.

I honestly believe that STEEM dropping to 50 cents or below is the best thing that could happen. This is a life changing opportunity for many people. If you don't want to buy more when the market is in crisis mode, that's your issues.

Buy with what? Bitcoin? I don't see others doing that. Show me where people are trading Bitcoin for Steem because if that were happening the Steem to Bitcoin price would be going up not down.

lol. How old are you? 24? A new market needs at least 8-12 years to be considered mature.
Don't you remember the early days of the internet, or pcs in general or dotcom campanies? They were laughed upon for many years in the beginning. Look where it has come to now. The same exact thing will happen with cryptos in a few years. Steem is not even a toddler yet... 2 year old blockchain with a developer team of 20 people at max.

Bitcoin is over 10 years old. Steem you are saying needs 8-12 years? You mean like Myspace? We don't have 8-12 years in a competitive market. I'm with you that Steem is important but I think more emphasis needs to be put on making Steem profitable/sustainable.

Cryptos we all agree on anyway so no one is going to debate that here. But I also think cryptos (including altcoins) should focus or put emphasis on making sure that their platforms or their products not only produce value but actually create demand for the token so that the ecosystem can grow.

Developers are great but only can take a social network so far. I can write code myself but there are more things to do than write code. Most people who write code don't only write code.

Don't you remember the early days of the internet, or pc's in general or dotcom campanies? They were laughed upon for many years in the beginning. Look where it has come to now. The same exact thing will happen with cryptos in a few years. Steem is not even a toddler yet... 2 year old blockchain with a developer team of 20 people at max.

I was a part of those early days. I was also a part of the early days of peer to peer, of crypto, etc. My point is that just like with Dot Com there was a time when many companies existed with no emphasis on profit for the shareholders. What happened to those companies and which ones survived until now?

I get your point about sharholder value, but in the beginning you were talking about how waiting another seven months for SMTs seemed unbearable or some kind of horrible for you as a shareholder who is only earning 20 bucks per day right now.

No, I always expected a wait. But I do think if you promise shareholders (Q4 2018) and then announce a delay (Q1 2019 testnet) then of course it could spook the market. It's so far though not having much impact one way or the other on the Steem price.

I also never said it's "horrible for me" or said I earn $20 a day; you came up with that. But sure, I would say the more Steem Holders can earn the more people will want to hold. Not just earn from holding Steem but from posting, the reward pool, or any other kind of interaction with the platform. The whole point of holding a token is either you think it's going to go up over time or you want to use it to earn $ or do something productive.

Steem allows people to add value currently but the reward pool isn't growing. As a result the community (not just me) is complaining. They say the reward pool is being exploited, or blame it on bots, but the truth is the reward pool hasn't been growing. Vote selling and bots are a separate issue but connected.

And one of the main problems is retention. People who join Steem post a few times and then leave when they see $1 or so as their reward. It's because the reward pool is shrinking and so the whole situation is unsustainable no matter what you do.

So while there are more accounts than ever (people tend to create accounts when it's a bull market because the rewards are higher) it would indicate to me that if the rewards are higher the rate of growth for Steem would increase.

So we look at it from that perspective and we can see the larger the reward pool the faster the growth of the whole ecosystem for everyone. SMTs can't come soon enough but what to do while we wait for SMTs?

What is the plan after HF20? No ideas to solve the demand problems? Even putting promoted posts on trending could help.

SMTs and communities have unbelievable potential in the mid to longterm. But with only 60k active users u can't expect miracles over night. The tokenization of forums and chats of giant websites could revolutionize the web as we know it.
Next thing that needs to be focused on will be scaling though. To run a full node is unbearably expensive now, because it needs 1 TB of RAM, that's insane.

No. You don't seem to understand how the reward pool works. Actually we recently hit a new alltime high. Never have been more tokens paid out before. Don't get confused with all the SBD that was printed (and worth 5$ each). It is just that the tokens are worth so much less right now that it seems unattractive. When you say reward pool you actually are talking about the worth of the tokens paid out (in Dollars). Yes, we had 5million before, and yes it is now down to 737.000 again. So we lost 85% of that, too. But it will rise again when BTC rises, because STEEM rise with it.

check out steem.supply to see how the reward pool grows and shrinks independently from the worth in Dollars (of it).

What I understand is the whole ecosystem rests on one token (Steem). If the Steem token and Steem Power have low demand then there is no fuel for growth of the reward pool or anything else. You can build in scalability to welcome a billion users and that is fine. I agree with HF20 and that mission but at the same time what happened to the promises of gamification? What about generating revenue? What about producing an actual demand for the Steem token right now? Not in 2019-2020.

Communities would be great but they haven't given a release date on that. My point is Steem tokens and Steem Power are a bad long term hold. If that is the case everyone will earn and sell immediately while powering down rather than powering up. Look at the stats to see which accounts are powering down right now. As a result the downward pressure on the price of Steem creates a rush for the exits and over time Steem price in BTC terms always trends down.

This isn't ideal.

Don't get confused with all the SBD that was printed (and worth 5$ each). It is just that the tokens are worth so much less right now that it seems unattractive. When you say reward pool you actually are talking about the worth of the tokens paid out (in Dollars).

No I'm not talking about the worth of the tokens paid out in dollars. That is exactly why you're missing my point. I'm talking about the worth of the tokens when sold or bought for BTC. This isn't about the dollar value for people who are all in on crypto (long term crypto investors).

And in terms of the worth in BTC the value doesn't grow. Yes you can say the value in USD went up only because Bitcoin went up but that doesn't show me there is demand for Steem independent of Bitcoin which is what I need to see to know the market is fairly valuing Steem.

The USD price is irrelevant because you can't buy Steem on Coinbase right now.

I strongly disagree. I think most weren't actually thinking they would get SMTs done, possibly ever. Having a date is extremely bullish, even if it is further out than most would like.

Yes man..atleast we now have a parameter for judging pass/fail...

SMT riding

I like how the operator didn't even flinch after that one move.
The confidence.

Crash the price of Steem, what on earth are you talking about?

This is good news, fantastic news in fact. Now we have a set date for launch and it's only a few months away.

This is a cause for celebration, not pessimism.

Bizarre. Only in crypto can a project announce a delay and be celebrated. If Tesla announces a delay the shareholders get nervous. Truth is this is a delay from the original roadmap. It is true that the original roadmap was never set in stone but this "setting in stone" now puts the team in a position where if they miss this upcoming date what will the community say?

Thanks for the feedback, @dana-edwards, it's always appreciated. We felt it was important to give developers considering launching an SMT as much notice as possible. We've spent the last year growing and totally reorganizing our engineering teams specifically so that we could generate an accurate forecast for the release of products. Once engineering felt confident it had generated an accurate timeline, we felt it was more important to let everyone know that information.

valid reasoning in my opinion. Seems like companies would need a few months.
However with that said I bet they'd be ready for a testnet in 2-3 months ;) haha

We'd certainly rather they be ready sooner, but we're confident that this deliverable is based on the max potential velocity. This isn't the type of thing that you can just accelerate with more hires. No one else is even working on something like this, let alone releasing a timeline.

No real surprise here... A announcement for SMTs which won't happen until 2019 (who knows when), meanwhile there are still serious scaling issues that need to be solved for the steem platform. Why not devote time to making it so that full nodes do not require almost 1TB of RAM to run? That doesn't seem to be a priority despite the fact that it would make the technology miles and miles more desirable then SMTs since the features all require better scalability. Steem desperately needs sharding or some kind of asynchronous system.

I don't think that fixing a issue that only affects witnesses and can be easily fixed adding RAM should slow down the development of a feature that will allow a huge number of new use cases

It doesn't only affect witnesses. Any application that runs on top of the blockchain is affected by this issue. The only way to access the RPC of the steem blockchain is to use a Full Node. Any performance issues that come from this lack of scaling proliferate down to all of the users. It makes developing for the platform harder as well when the API and RPC are not stable. If they implement SMTs on this platform as it is it will cause tons of issues for all of the end users because the platform doesn't scale.

Just consider these numbers for a moment... According to the latest steemit statistics post the platform hosts between 50 and 60k concurrent active users and a full node on the blockchain requires almost 1 TB of RAM to run smoothly. Bitcoin, the largest blockchain in the world is currently supporting 25 million wallets (and for the sake of argument, let us just say that 5 million of them are active users on a daily basis). A full Bitcoin node requires only 2 gigs of ram to run properly. Bitcoin cash which also has its own blog type platform, memo.cash, also only requires roughly 2-4 gigs of ram to run a full node. While admittedly none of these platforms are identical with one another in how they operate, the cost of performance vs the amount of users supported is absurd.

I understand your point but no news at all for the next few months could be worse. At least having dates locked in can give people some confidence that progress is being made. No news at all could be seen as an indication that nothing is happening which would be worse.

The price of Steem is low and could easily continue dropping for a while. This is across the board for all altcoins. Steem is certainly fairing better than many. I think many people are not investing in Steem because they don't fully understand the potential. The marketing for Steem needs to improve.

I was tracking progress on GIthub. I basically knew it was months away but the market didn't know.

How can committing to a date be a bad thing???
Is not what you were hopping for?? but at least now you have a timeline to looking forward for.

I don't really like hard dates. I would say the same about setting hard dates with Tauchain which people know I'm interested in as well. It's usually not a good idea to set a release date as it creates expectations. Also when you didn't meet the previous expectations people might not want to hear your new updated release schedule which is a year late.

This same thing happened with Ethereum Casper and look at the Ethereum price. So I'm assuming the market will respond in a similar manner as it did to Ethereum but I could be wrong.

True, but still it seems like an interesting project...

Bro, that's a pretty short time. Seven months sounds pretty ambitious to me. But I'm still kinda new I guess...

Id rather see a date but wow the release talk was like a year ago and we still gotta wait forever it was a bit early talking about it 8 -10 months ago