If the markets are so bull, why do I feel so bear?
I think this comes down to the sense that for the first time in my crypto journey I feel like I might "need" to use some of it, whereas in the past it has been a conceptual idea that it could be used for something that I may actually want in the real world. The bearishness comes from the state of my holdings at the moment, as I feel that we are still at the bottom, especially regarding the alt market. Also, I don't hold much Bitcoin, so that means that there isn't a great deal of excitement in a run on it.
Though, what is not much?
I sometimes wonder what kinds of amounts people are getting excited over. Does it matter if Bitcoin goes to 100K if I only have 0.01 BTC? Percentage-wise, all kinds of things can happen, but the reality of the amount held has to also come into play. I hear people say "I got 50% gains" which is brilliant, but on what? What is a lot and a little is going to be dictated by the local conditions.
If all the 21M Bitcoin were printed and distributed evenly amongst the global population, there would be enough for each to have around 0.003 Bitcoin - I have a little more than that and I have a great deal more than the average person - who has no Bitcoin whatsoever.
However, I do think that while there is going to be a big run on Bitcoin for a while to come, investors will start looking wider as I don't think we as humans like dealing with numbers under 1. There might also be some FOMO in the race to own a Bitcon or two. While crypto fools might want a Lambo, the real scarcity is going to be in the bragging rights of "I have a whole Bitcoin", as there are quite a few out there with, quite a few. How many are going to be affected by unit bias and will drive the value up to complete their set? How many newer entrants will forgo Bitcoin in preference for something they can have more of? We have a culture that values whole things - No one screams "Half a Lambo!" We talk about billionaires, but no one seems to care about those who have 900 million...
Even to me who has a fair understanding of the significance of say, what 0.5 of a Bitcoin is, I still feel the inadequacy of the less than whole amount and I am curious as to what that will mean later on and if it will affect the way people use their crypto.
If you had 0.99 Bitcoin, would you be more or less likely to aim to make it whole - would you be more or less likely to spend it.
If you had 1.01 Bitcoin, would you be more or less likely to add more - would you be more or less likely to spend it and go below 1?
At that 100K Bitcoin level, that 0.01 is $1000 dollars worth. Does it make a difference to your decisions? If 10 years from now Bitcoin was worth 1 million, it is 10,000 worth. Does it make a difference? We are collectors at heart and we like to have whole numbers of things, not fractions.
I think that this "difference" in value matters as in my opinion, while it would be nice to use crypto to buy some stuff I want, I want to be able to buy something that makes a difference in my life. This is from the monetary perspective, as there are other values that I support through crypto too.
Crypto engineers love fractions of things though, they love numbers that are unimaginably big or small, which I think is part of the problem for mass adoption, as it is hard to imagine. People are primed for whole numbers, but they are given a thing to understand that is already removed from their general understanding. We are encouraged to buy crypto to own, but our understanding of ownership is being stretched into a digital concept of space, something that is hard to visualize for the average person to get a sense of what is actually owned. A house, a car or even a share of a company is far easier to comprehend.
I think that because of this, a lot of the future investment is going to find its feet in projects that are able to be understood, where there is a visualization layer for the user to build upon, that hides a lot of the unimaginable numbers. This simplification gives brings clarity and gives people the confidence that they know what they are doing, rather than feel like they are drowning in a university math class. Perhaps this is actually a big part of what holds crypto back from mass adoption, as people don't like to feel like idiots and the people who design for crypto, think that those who aren't good with numbers are idiots.
Because of this, I believe that the future of crypto is going to increasingly move toward the application concept of computing, where complexity is simplified for endusers who can feel that they are really doing something, while the algorithms are actually doing the heavy lifting. An example of this is a photography filter that can be applied with a click of a button or a couple sliders, while the calculations are out of sight. Even the more professional software applications like Photoshop are too difficult for most users, so they create light versions to give the sense of doing it - without actually doing it.
Hive is well positioned for this kind of application ecosystem of course, but it still takes the developers to recognize that while they might love the unimaginable numbers, they are developing for endusers who like to feel that they know what they are doing and are able to get beautiful results - with a few buttons and sliders. We want to feel that we are professional creators, even though we are enduser consumers.
Leaping the gap to mass adoption will mean removing the complexity to understanding so that participants can feel confident, especially considering that in order to participate they are going to have to invest something of themselves - which is already burdened by risk aversion. Currently, I think too much focus is on trying to retrain everyone into dealing with complexity, which is something only a small fraction of a population will enjoy doing, let alone invest themselves into. While it is great to get educated, mass adoption is going to require a metaphorical pullback on the university level math and instead start with the grade school imagery of cutting up apples and oranges for comparison and calculation.
So, while I am feeling bearish, I am also bullish on the long-term of crypto and Hive, but I do think that we are being held back from growth by the complexity of the ecosystem. The projects that are best able to simplify the experience to make spaces where people feel comfortable, confident and therefore, connected, will be the spaces where people gather - and when people gather, investors will look to place their capital.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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I am also not a big investor in Bitcoin having lost my keys to the ones I mined in its very early days. I'm not bitter about it, it was a valuable, albeit expensive lesson to learn. What first got me interest in Bitcoin was the trust less nature of it and the blockchain it was built upon. So elegant and so simple on its surface.
What @dan did with being able to make it more visual and a holder of information is what attracted me to Steem/Hive. Although now things are far more complex, that visual surface is Hives value. It is like building a library with no visitor just yet. Hopefully if we build it they will come and not just to speculate.
Have heart, the likelihood of holding all the way to today is very small :)
I see it as one of the key points of value to. Also, the potential to build a social presence without focusing solely on the financial aspects should at least reduce some of the speculation on the token - though it would be nice to have people recognize the value in owning part of the platform, rather than just been a guest on someone else's.
So much to consider with amounts people get excited over XD
Take $100.
For my kids, they feel rich when they have it (which can happen at Christmas and birthdays, and then usually shortly after that it's gone), and stuff that costs $100 is prohibitively expensive (until Christmas and birthday happens, and then it's gone XD).
For me, it's enough money that dropping that much ends up taking a lot of careful consideration (sometimes days or longer). My sister is an outlier here as she's in a good paddock but is still like me.
For J (who actually earns money reliably) it's still a lot of careful consideration but maybe hours rather than days (on average it's minutes and usually no if it's not bills or groceries XD).
And then there's my parents who are like "oh it's 'only' $100/an extra $100". There was a lot of effort and being in the right place at maybe the right time or at least in the right place to be able to get to that life stage though.
The stupid numbers (too big or too many decimal places aka too small) is what pisses me off the most about crypto. Imagine that certain numbers look the same to you and then try reading those bloody things.
Yeh we could probably do with 100% les of that attitude XD
I'm pretty sure it's similar attitudes that are a large part of the reason linux hasn't mainstreamed yet
ok!
;)
You have given a very good example of how the perspective of money changes it. It isn't just the amount either, there are also the social pressures in play. If you think that a new iPhone is $1600AU the 100 dollars seems so little. We have warped the sense of value of things and have disconnected our intuitions.
Unfortunately, I am not confident that the latest generations will know what this feels like. I am not confident I will know it :)
Right there with you thinking we're not going to know how that feels either XD
I think I was born in the wrong generation - how many back to Generation-caveman?
Quite a few? XD
I don't think I'd survive earlier generations x_x
I feel the same and sold most of my BTC. I think there is a. It’s if a multiplier in alt coins.
Time will tell what the best move is as always, but since I have never held much BTC, I am still not ready to FOMO in at this point :)
To be Frank I don't own much Bitcoin for me $1000 increase is like 10 or 15 dollars increase in my portfolio. what I like to invest is in altcoin with small price. so i can get a nice ratio profit because you can say Bitcoin become 20000$ mean. it will go from 20 to 30 thousand like a dream for some people but it takes lot of time and I think invest in small coin is better
I take a similar approach in it, which is why I hold so little Bitcoin. I do have some, but it is going to be a long time before it is at a price it will make much of a difference.
Yeah I know my thoughts are " pick small and large to go big " and I think you should try stacking some sports because I don't see you sports content often
I think that this is part of the benefit of crypto, as it allows small investors the chance to get in and perhaps even do very well. Large investors can afford to get the 5-10% a year - but what is the point with small amounts? Yes, it all adds up and can compound, but there are also a lot of fees that eat into the earnings and other aspects like inflation.
Is sports token still alive? I thought it was destroyed in price by the constant rape by some stakeholders.
Dear tarazkp, What is your purpose of hiveing? I hope you understand if it might be unpleasant to you!
From my point of view, it feels like you are hiveing to forget about anger, frustration, and loneliness.
From my point of view, you are like Abraham's son Ishmael.
I'm sorry I wrote so straightforward sentences. I don't know a metaphor sentence as good as you are.
There are many reasons. It is a creative output that allows me to process my thoughts. This helps me in many ways. On top of this, there is the sense of being part of a community and interacting with people from all over the world in ways that are impossible under normal conditions. Then there is the economic potential of both personal finance improvement as well as the ability to influence the futures for many people by investigating alternatives to what is a highly broken economic system that is currently in rotation around the world.
From my point of view - you are quite wrong. If anything, it is quite the opposite, as I don't avoid my own anger, frustration or loneliness. If I do experience these things - I face them and deal with them.
What a strange thing to say. Why would I want to be European do you think? Why would I want to be anything other than the best version of myself?
I have no idea what these references mean.
Dear my friend @tarazkp, Please understand first that I am a non-English speaking person.
I can't use metaphorical sentences like other English speaking people.
Sorry if my clumsy English sentences made you unpleasant.
You are probably in a very tired and difficult condition.
If you allow, next time I will answer with a more complete English sentence.
I wish your happy and healty!
No, I am okay.
Lol you guys talk is so interesting I kinda enjoy reading comments
Comments is where most of the fun is in my opinion - the post is more of a prompt for the comments to stem from. I wish people would comment more of course - but a lot don't see the value in it, despite it being pretty much the only way to build a sense of personality and character. I think this is especially true for the people who do not writ about their own experience.
!BEER
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STOPDo not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:
When I started reading I thought it, (the post), was going to be about fractional reserve banking. I understand that about as much as I do the monetary system of Hive.
Simplification of the math would be a nice thing. The understanding of the system would be nice, I think it would be easier if it was apples and apples being compared, and not apples and oranges.
People do like whole numbers more that part or odd numbers, like it takes 5,000 HP to be a dolphin. People understood that, now it take more than that something like 5,053 HP to be a dolphin. The goal post keeps moving, and there is always someone that just has to point out, "no you are not a dolphin yet you need blah blah blah vest to really be a dolphin and that means you are 53 HP short of being a dolphin", numbers and number people and those that just have to be party poopers.
For those that are going to correct me on the 5053 HP number to be a dolphin don't bother, I have no clue what the HP level is for a dolphin, in my mind it is still 5000 HP. Time for the numbers people to learn the concept of K.I.S.S.
I have no idea what and where this is all going to end up. The way I see things is Bitcoin is great if you had it at the cheap prices when it first came out. Buying now making 30 x gains is decent but in reality the alts give you what Bitcoin has already with the possibility of making 100 or 1000 x gains. I think it is wise to hold some Bitcoin but smarter to hold a basked of different options in the alts. Hive could go to $10 easily in my opinion if Bitcoin can go to $500 000 and what is that in percentage gains on todays pricing. That is 80 x for Hive and 30 x for Bitcoin. I was asked this the other day and in all honesty believe Eth is the one I would rather be holding than Bitcoin right now. Time will tell as there will be winners and losers but we are all winners for holding crypto already.
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I feel good
Some alts are up 300% in one month....
This is all investing. The largest wealth sector is the derivative market - that is all about nothing. However, at least Bitcoin has an address you own :)
There are quite a few in poor countries that use it and without it, they would struggle worse than they are.
I think that they are far from, but the people that pay the price for that risk are the rest of us. Most of the transactions in derivatives are OTC and unregulated.
There are quite a few people on Hive who use their earnings to make ends meet in some of the poorer countries. When it comes to other cryptos, I have no idea.