Sundays are often pretty quiet around the Hive and perhaps weekends in general - I guess some people have lives - or have too much of a hangover to sit at the keyboard. I have neither, so here I am :)
Sometimes it is good to just talk and when I have some space where I can actually speak without waking people up, I think I will start streaming a little and perhaps doing some Q&A's - I think everyone is comfortable enough working remotely by now and it might be a bit of fun. You have seen me write, how much do you reckon I can talk?
I was asked the other day what I see as the long-term benefit of staking Hive is as curation is unlikely to be enough of a drawcard far into the future for all participants. There are several points of benefit, but I see the ability to use stake as a direct investment vehicle one of the most compelling, to be able to buy into a project through voting. But, this is only one aspect of it.
As @rollandthomas added in my post about having skin in the game:
The risk is not being somewhat invested. If you think about it, it really circa 2001 all over again. Meaning the next Amazon, Apples, etc are being born now in the crypto space...and we know how those companies turned out.
Yes, we know how they turned out, but that is easy in hindsight - I woulda, coulda, shoulda - but the fact is that most people in the world didn't even know about these companies early on and even if they did, didn't have the ability to invest into them as the gateways weren't available to all.
Looking forward, it is incredibly hard to predict the next unicorn company because, there are so many to choose from and so many dynamic factors in play that making a choice and investing in is very difficult and, the risk is high. Not only is there high risk, even if successful, the investment capital will be locked away for a long period of time while the company goes from startup to the moon, or most likely, to a slow and fiery death.
I see Hive as a go between position that allows for direct investment if one chooses through staked voting or delegation, but the principle itself isn't lost and it can be retracted at any point. What is lost is the potential to vote on or delegate to something else - every opportunity has a cost. Not only is the principle not lost however, it is going to benefit from other investments that it may not even know about.
For example,
Two Hive investors 1 and 2 support two different Hive projects A and B, respectively with 100,000 HIVE POWER. After a year, Project A performs dismally and fails utterly and Project B performs very well and gets a lot of market attention. While Investor 1 has forgone potential to do different with that 100K HIVE POWER, at the end of the year, they still hold it. Investor 2 has made good profits from the Project as an early backer and not only has their 100K, but potentially other values like an SMT or fiat or whatever. But, if Project B is successful, even though Investor 1 didn't invest directly into it or perhaps doesn't even know it exists, the value it brings to Hive will benefit their stake - as it will benefit the stake of all stakeholders equally in accordance with the stake held.
This means that while an investor can directly back projects (many if they choose to split into percentages) with their stake, they are also able to simultaneously mitigate risk through their stake being invested in Hive, making the Hive ecosystem much like an index fund of all applications and businesses built upon it. One hyper successful experience that generates enormous interest and demand, supercharges the entire platform from both a price perspective as well as an infrastructure view - where developers can build upon it.
Once that first crypto unicorn arrives in a space that doesn't charge 30% for sales (like Apple and Goggle stores), more developers arrive, more endusers splash over the rim of their first experience and into others. The market place builds around a growing mass of participants and all Hive holders will benefit, according to their stake size. A rising tide lifts all boats.
An Apple, an Amazon a Rovio or Supercell gets created on Hive and the moon will be a distant dot behind us. Hive has the potential to be a true ecosystem that supports users at all layers, an incubator and testing ground for applications, a meetup point for handshakes between business and investors, a talent pool of creatives and developers and of course, an audience that is often also invested in the good outcomes of the applications.
While developers might compete for application attention, investors in Hive shouldn't really care that much what goes big, as long as something does. And, the cool thing is that one isn't investing into the potential unicorns only, the holding of Hive stake supports all who make the attempt in some way and all that add value, add it to all investors. This means that if 100 applications are built and half fail early on and one does very well, the other 49 will add value on a sliding scale from 1 down to near zero, but all will add something.
Using 100 as the base for the number 1 application and 1 the bottom for the 50th - 5 might do quite well and add 20 each, 10 might do well and add 10 each, 15 might do okay and add 5 each and 19 will survive and add 1 each. The "unicorn" in this hypothetical added 100 - which is 5x more than the closest, but The other 49 combined to add 294 - together, almost 3x as much. People love to worship the unicorns, nothing wrong with coming just being a fancy horse.
The decentralization of Hive encourages the development of this kind of model with it all being carried by the Hive infrastructure and supported by Hive investors and the Hive community. As said, it becomes a true ecosystem in many, many ways and has a working decentralized economy to boot.
This doesn't just happen though. The infrastructure has to be secure, reliable and stable. The developers have to be active, innovative and willing to act like real startups to attract investors. The investors need to be mature, think long and hard about what adds value - and they would probably come to the conclusion that what Hive needs is endusers, not just investors, not just contributors or developers to build applications - an audience to actually consume what is created.
Building an audience is the biggest challenge facing Hive, not retaining creatives. The creatives that can't make it through the gauntlet of a startup likely won't be able to survive in a dynamic and competitive environment anyway. An audience however has to be attracted away from where they are currently consuming, which is very difficult as they are already consuming a lot and much of it is forced down their throat by centralized curation. It is where their friends are, it is polished and pretty, it is convenient - it is risk free.
Are people starting to wake up to the real costs of free media?
At least some of us have and I think more are making the turn.
The future of Hive doesn't just bring in the potential of investing into the latest round of unicorn experiences, it gives the opportunity to fundamentally shift the world economy by encouraging investment and ownership of content and creations by everyone, including the consumers themselves. This means that the value generated can be just as enormous as all of the centralized experiences, the difference being is that the benefits will flow onto all participants in some way, not just the 0.1%.
It might not make you obscenely wealthy, but it would create a richer world in many ways and for many more.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
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I’ve always looked at this place as the most interconnected ecosystem in all of crypto - as you said, a rising tide raises all ships.
I also like your math with scoring 294 decent horses versus a 100 unicorn. There’s a lot of value in a web of good projects even if there isn’t an outlandishly incredible one among them.
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With a large number of users, the interconnectedness becomes highly active and valuable.
I was talking to someone recently about a what I call a successful startup company I know well and is turning over 120M+ a year with 500 employees and growing. The person said, "But Apple makes..."
We are blinded by the brightest stars and miss the value of the entire galaxy.
100% that also reminds me of:
Shoot for the moon. Even if you miss you may land among the stars.
One of the fun aspects about how small hive is is how small hive is. We get front row seats to the progress here as it happens. So as we find our decent horses or maybe even a mini-unicorn, we’ll see the impact immediately
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Many don't yet realise how lucky they are to have the seats they hold.
I really like the example of 2 investors HIVE A and B.
For me personally, HIVE is an investment school, where I gain experience that costs much more than the capital that I use for investing.
I m pretty sure that most people who take the lessons from here will use them somewhere else when the opportunity presents. The interesting thing is that many of those people might be building a better resource pool in real life to take advantage too.
Very interesting read. Loved your example of 1 and 2 Hive investors. That's pretty much why I still havent withdrawn much from the time I started writing on Steem. I see this as a savings account. Instead of putting money in the bank where it loses value over time, here it gains value or atleast remains of the same value and ROI is good.
Or at least has the possibility to do something. Too many look at it in terms of fiat, when what we are dealing with are HIVE tokens. Increase the value of the token and people will complain they aren't getting enough tokens, decrease the value and they complain they aren't getting enough fiat.
I was saying some thing like this on twitter.. Hive is a win win situation and i feel that early adopters will enjoy the greatest benefits.
The problem is how many celebrities will leave twitter and facebook to join hive? Or use both?
It might just be a handful and thats why there is need for mass publicity on crypto.
Once one or two elite celebrities move over to hive be sure to get a lot of their fans moving.
It's just like the scenario when ronaldo went to italy, it brought a huge change to the serie A.
Hive needs to be everywhere on twitter, facebook and instagram.
Hive to the world...
They will arrive when there are enough normal users, the same as they did on all the other platforms.
He moved because of money - there won't be enough money for celebrities until there are enough normal end users. millions of them.
Series A became more relevant after Ronaldo came in ... Italy's economy pumped by that news
Building an audience is key. And a lot of those creatives that come over here — to create and become apart of the community; could become part of that said audience.
I really love reading your posts. They are easy to digests and understand this new way of thinking about investments and the future of the internet.
I like that one can (if wanted) straddle many world on Hive, be a c reative, consumer, investor and help development too. It all adds up.
Thank you very much, it is appreciated :)
Using Hive as one's primary social media is also completely risk free. What is there to lose?
The risk of trying something new. People protect their egos. Social proof gets over this hurdle as it comes pre accepted by the group. Most don't have early adopter mindsets.
So there's a risk of being perceived as out-group? Or somehow uncool or failed if one does not succeed as one hopes to succeed? :)
The guy I talked to ultimately adopted a cautiously positive view of Hive. He did say it was for people who like experimentation. Other than there being a bit of a cognitive hurdle, there is actually very little risk.
But people try new foods or start new hobbies all the time. What's so different about joining Hive compared to trying yoga, pottery, or aikido, for example?
Expectation. Most people are presented Hive from a monetary gain position. Many will think too good to be true or scam. Others will think, I am going to be judged and that scares them.
Your writing is very interesting, I am relatively new to Hive (just over a month) and I am pleasantly surprised with the great potential that it has yet to develop, your post makes it clearer to me, and it awakens some ideas from other points of view that had not considered. As if that were not enough, I also think your photographic work is very good! regards!
Hopefully it helps you along your Hive journey :)
Thank you very much :)
It is getting quiet around here, with Steemit (in the old days), there were promises (often broken) of development. With no equivalent of Steemit anymore, who is the driving force, whether real or pretend?
I agree. I think that it is happening but "I think" shouldn't be the case. I feel that those who are developing should start becoming far more public and transparent with at least some of the backend process rather than sticking it in a slack channel. They seem to have forgotten that it was Stinc's poor communication that often got them into trouble and also, it is platform communication that generates content and hype on and off the platform too.
I'm seeing a couple of big accounts that appear to be powering down. Given just the semi-passive income that can be gained from curation with accounts the size of ours, I find that strange. I wonder what they are thinking?
This is "doubling up" for some, free money. So perhaps they have less attachment to it. Easy come, easy go?
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I think that once you get used to posting and writing, the fact that it's week-end is not relevant anymore:) Retaining the creatives and have endusers. I agree. People need to feel stimulated to engage and to produce quality content. Creativity needs incentives, not only monetary, but also spiritual. The role of the community and of those who spend time to actively engage in this is vital. The next big unicorn is somewhere out there, but until we get to see it for ourselves, it is good to continue to create and improve this.
I agree with your statement about needing more end-users. They are the masses who spread the word (as skewed as it might end up in the process). The thing is, it doesn't so much matter how it is presented, as long as it is presented.
Just like any other growing project, business, idea... there is a certain amount of headspace that people have for certain things. When most people here 'crypto' they think 'Bitcoin'. It's the first, and in many cases, only thing that pops up in their minds.
I'm not talking about just the crypto community, I'm talking about the entire world of consumers and end-users that we should be seeking. We have to find a way to be memorable. To increase the number of people that think 'Hive' in attachment with something they already understand.
On another note, end-users want things the easy way. If it isn't something they can figure out in a few seconds (maybe minutes if you're lucky) they often aren't going to give it much more thought. Of course, we might not necessarily want a bunch of trash posting imbeciles flooding the platform, so in a sense, maybe it's a good thing they aren't onboarding so quickly.
Whatever the solution/solutions are, I think they must involve something with a powerful draw to end-users. The draw must either be powerful enough to overcome the initial difficulty of understanding what this place really is, or it must simplify the interface to a few clicks to sign up and a slightly more familiar way of account access and platform navigation.
The first place to make connectivity easier is with smartphones since around 60-70% of people are using phones to get online. A couple of awesome frontends for phones and some great advertising could certainly help.
I'm just rambling. Tell me what you think?
Well we know you have a live. A very busy one in fact. But we also are starting to suspect that you must be even busier cloning yourself multiple times every time you get drunk and before those hangovers you say you don't have either. Btw, are you Number 4 who wrote this post? }:)
Now seriously, about the rest of your article, as always you are spot on. But we all already knew that also anyway. :)