We knew all along the biggest driver for people acquiring Hive would be to interact with the blockchain. $HVE, in addition to its other features, is an access coin. It allows for people to gain the ability to write to the chain.
So far, since the focus of the chain was primarily on long form content and gaming, the latter which mostly use Custom JSONs, there is little issue. Once in a while a newer person will run out of Resource Credits, a situation that is usually alleviated by someone else delegating 25 or 50 HP.
This could all be changing in the new few months. Doing some simple math means that we could be looking at hundreds of accounts needing more than 100 HP. It is a number that might grow rapidly into the thousands.
All along we knew it came down to use case. This was something many of us discussed. When $HIVE is need simply to operate, there will come a time when the demand is great.
That day could be happening before the end of the year.
The Math Of Hive
Before getting into the feature that could really change things, let us get an idea of what we are dealing with.
To start the analysis, we take an account with 29 HP. This seems like the range where we might push to get newer people. This can be through delegation or by helping them to earn some HP. Either way, it is about double what accounts were delegated on the legacy chain.
What does that get someone? According to Hiveblocks, we see this:
This account would be allowed, based upon Resource Credit pricing at the moment, roughly 28 comments. That means we see 1 HP is equal to 1 comment.
Of course, the challenge is the fact this is total. That means the 28 comments are good for 5 days. Thus, one making that many comments would have no more RC to operate.
The replenishing does happen at a rate of 20%, per day, so the account would get a little more than 5 back on a daily basis.
We also have to point out that the cost, in RC, per activity can fluctuate based upon the traffic on chain. Keep in mind, the Resource Credit system is what eliminates the direct transaction fees.
What all this is revealing is the need for Resource Credits, i.e. HP, could really explode. If we look at things at the individual account level, it really does become clear.
So now we have to look at what will drive demand.
Microblogging
The idea of microblogging is something that was discussed a great deal over the years. Setting up a "Twitter on the Blockchain" seemed like a good first step into the plethora of Web 3.0 social media options that were being developed.
Unfortunately, the technical dynamics are not so easy. When it comes to Hive, top list posts are limited to one every 5 minutes. This also creates a host of other issues when dealing with rewards and autovoters.
It does seem like that situation is going to be resolved. The Leofinance team is within a week or so of releasing an update that will add microblogging to its front end. This is actually a precursor of what is to come. By adding it to the existing website, the infrastructure can be tested before rolling it out as its own application.
Here is where the challenge enters from what we just discussed.
If we dealing with an account of roughly 30 HP only being able to interact 5 times per day, that is not nearly enough. Think of how much posting people do on Twitter. With this new feature, from the network perspective, it is posting comments.
That means the average user is going to require at least 4-5 times the amount of RC. We can put this number at between 120-150 HP.
For many who are on Hive, this is not an issue. The issue could be for newer users who enter the ecosystem via the microblogging application.
Resource Credit Delegations
It is easy to see that we are going to have to get RCs into the hands of newer users. This is going to be vital for the success of the platforms going forward.
There is a new feature that will be included in the next hard fork called Resource Credit Delegation. This is going to allow the RC to be delegated while the original accounts holds onto the Hive Power. As we can already see, this is going to have an impact in the area we are discussing.
This is also what could drive the demand for $HIVE.
Resource Credit delegation is going to be the next step in Hive's evolution. Ultimately, someone is going to have to purchase the $HIVE and stake it.
Going back to Hiveblocks, we see the total amount as it stands now.
With 161 million HP in existence, that means we can get about 32 million "Tweets" per day (161M/5). This certainly is not an issue with a chain that does around 2 million transactions per day in total. However, when we think about all activity it becomes clearer.
This is what we see with Twitter:
As of May 2020, every second, on average, around 6,000 tweets.
or, 350,000 tweets sent per minute
or, 500 million tweets sent each day
or, 200 billion tweets per year
We have to keep in mind, there are other activities on Hive. Simply because there is a microblogging feature, that does not mean that people will stop playing Splinterlands. The same is true for those posting long form articles. People are still going to vote on content. Plus, the blockchain will still distribute rewards.
The point is that we can see a crunch on Resource Credits taking place. Right now, again looking at Hiveblocks, we have a total supply of 386 million $HIVE. How much of that will find its way into wallets and staked?
As a comparison, we see this regarding Twitter:
Certainly, we are not proclaiming that Hive is going to get 200 million users from Twitter. However, to think that a few hundred thousand will not utilize a microblogging service once it is fully offered also seems far-fetched. There are already around 10K people on Hive who operate regularly. Adding this to the Hive package of offerings is really rounding out the social media options.
As an aside, it should be noted that on Hive, the follower list is the same. Thus, anyone who is producing Medium-style blogging, soon to be released microblogging, or video content will have their followers see it all. This is a big difference from Web 2.0.
It all comes down to simple math. With the present RC pricing, if each account that is serious about microblogging is going to require an amount equal to 100 HP, then we simply multiply the expected number of users to see how quickly $HIVE will get swallowed up.
From these calculations, it will only take a very small percentage as compared to Twitter to produce buy demand. The need for Resource Credits will grow which means more HP is going to be required.
We could see things radically different 6 months after the full release on a microblogging application.
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I ran out of resource credit being newbie and also wrote about it couple of days back.
observed many thing's like these limited resources control spamming on hive but on the other side genuine user who want to get involve will have to limit themselves unless someone delegate them HP to have more resources.
But this resource credit delegation is amazing concept and will add more value to hive ecosystem.
Micro-blogging is what most people like and will bring more traffic into hive and would love to use it. Though someone told me Dbuzz is for micro blogging on hive? And if I'm getting things right - LeoFinance micro-blogging will be different coz it will be in front end or distribute leo or hive from pool?
Looking forward to see things happening. I believe these initiative are huge for all of us.
For now - lemme stop my kids from searching how to hack resource credits 😂
Let me know if you need more HP to keep engaging. I will delegate you some to keep you going.
As for DBuzz, it is a top line post. This means it is the same as a blog post. The challenge is it can only be done once every 5 minutes plus shows up on people's feed if they are following you.
With what Leofinance is doing, it will be akin to a comment. So there is no autovoting getting activated plus the 5 minute rule doesnt apply.
And yes there is the potential to earn some rewards the same as any other comment. But that also is available with DBuzz although without their own token.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
This is so nice of you mate. if you're okay, i would love it as it will help me to keep engaging. Thank you very much.
Oh, I've not tried it by myself so was unaware. Now i Got it
It's Very nice LeoFinance is working on giving the best to people. Thanks for giving me answer of questions.
Looking forward to see the new update happening.
Cheers!
You should be able to comment now without much issue.
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Thanks mate, i really appreciate.
Have a great day ahead!
sorry to be late, I miss coming to post but with time sometimes I barely manage to read your wonderful references that update us, but I'm still here, always pending in my world of full nature.
Well let's hope that the hive does not disrupt us with these changes and with hundreds of accounts that will demand Hp to operate or RC that we will have to delegate to give them the opportunity to operate and 28 comments for every 100 HP is too little for someone who operates infinitely to operate hundreds of comments a day so it will be necessary that we proceed to provide support to all who need it, unfortunately that is not the chaos I have invited friends, I have bought accounts for them but people are still lazy, I have delegated them 25 hp that have been completely forgotten that I have had to recover a month later for lack of diligence sometimes I think I'm not doing the right job but well,
so here we are, thanks for the update I didn't know that Twitter had so much growth over the years, by the way when I go in to browse I see that there are many here that foresee rambling on centralized T and F networks, that give them no benefit than being here interacting and I say wow these are on the wrong path all be it for trying to engage friends that come here.
but well we are still waiting for blanck project that will change the world here in our beloved network.
My lord I am here I have not retired I am just short on time.
Well ProjectBlank is still down the road. This is a precursor to it. We will see how it goes once it is live.
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Resource delegations are going to be pretty sweet to have.
One thing that will be happening in HF26 is I personally believe that RC costs will actually go down in some cases, barring one type of transaction since it's now taking into account additional computations it didn't before.
Another aspect is the growth of cost during busy times could be less intense as well, thnis is in part all thanks to the crazy optimizations that are coming in HF26.
Hive is certainly set to handle MILLIONS of users after HF26 it's going to be great!.
I wonder what is next for the base chain after HF26. Further optimization I would expect, but any major feature.. I'm not sure what they would be. Interesting times ahead for sure!
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That is all true. I am not too familiar with all the optimization taking place but I know Blocktrades is on the case. He lives to optimize stuff so we are in good hands.
Being able to handle the traffic before we get the traffic is vital. This is something Ethereum is battling at the moment.
I would rather have our problem.
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This is definitely a numbers game and the numbers don't lie that demand for Hive Power is not that far away. This could easily explode the Hive price within the next 24 months due to demand and not the price action of the markets.
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Yeah it will take a while, once we start getting users, for the existing RC to be delegated out. Some are sitting on a lot.
That said, we could see a ton more have to be created. Unless there is something I am missing, this comes from people powering up Hive.
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HP is very important for the blockchain. And as you say, we could need between 50 to 100 HP to do the things that are done here in #Hive, the demand will be gigantic in the coming months as we continue to grow
Then it simply becomes how many daily or monthly users are there.
Think of it this way: 100K will require a lot of HP.
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I think that one of the RC usages that will grow A LOT in the near future are services and automated tools related to gaming (mainly Splinterlands, obviously), like Auto-Rentals and Bots. Those tools allows a single human being to manage thousands of accounts and, thus, using way more Resource Credits and doing way more transactions than it would be expected for a single person.
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That is true although I will say that is, from what I understand, the less expensive way to go. If they use Custom JSONs, that costs less than a comment or post.
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I presume they're using Custom JSONs, yes. But, for example, a single human can manage 500 accounts on a bot that plays 50 matches per day. Each transaction can cost less than a comment, but a human doesn't make 25,000 comments per day, but he'll be doing (throught the bot) 25,000 splinterlands matches per day
That is true but a CUSTOM JSON is a lot more efficient then a comment. So yes the bot load is way more but the impact not as much on an individual basis.
Get 25K people making 10 Threads a day and we will see something really interesting.
Going to be fun to see how it all turns out.
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I see, it makes sense. In the end, the blockchain have plenty of space to grow on both sides: on the social media aspect, and on the gaming/automated tools side :D
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It seems those new users are going to need to weigh the cost of being able to microblog versus the revenue they are hopefully going to be receiving from it. I am just looking forward to seeing how it will all work. I want to find that number that I am safe staying at while also delegating out some of my RC's and making some revenue.
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Keep in mind, the "costs" are not just for access to microblogging. Obviously having HP helps the curation. Also, can use other applications which might be more profitable. Finally, there is the speculation aspect where the value of $HIVE could double or triple.
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I‘ve always been in dire need for more HP and will always be ;)
Jokes aside, if the general throughput gets increased, RCs will be enough for everyone and HP requirements will drop. It’s smart to keep it somewhat dynamic, to avoid intense spam and require proper skin in the game by all participants. Having 5-10 Posts/Comments per day as newbie is more than enough. There’s no free lunch 🍱.
With a microblogging application, we will see more than that from some users. And we want engagement as well as people using the applications. This means people will have incentive to get their hands on Hive...at least someone will be incentivized.
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If you create a community and take a cut from the content that is explicitly posted into it, would make sense for you probably extend your responsibility to RC delegations.
Don’t know if that’s feasible doh.
That is a possibility. We could see communities do that.
There are a lot of ways this could be approached. I am sure we will see a lot of innovation.
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Yes, it will. Looking forward to what that will look like. Dan is talking about the value of delegated RCs for years now already. I'm very skeptical about its practical usage, let's see where it goes. My bet would still be, that HIVE will get higher bandwidth before the end of the year and RCs / RC delegation will not be a huge market, but rather get practical usage and that of course goes back to your HP to actions on chain argument.
In the long term, simple social apps will not be posting all their posts because it would be too expensive to do so.
In the short term, while the HIVE price is low, people will enjoy it, but later the blockspace will be reserved for usecases which generate more money than a random post.
Not sure what those usecases are, probably custom_JSONs of games with very highly valued assets or controversial posts which the author knows will probably be censored if not paid for in RC to post on hive.
That could well be true. We will have to see what the evolution of the ecosystem is. At some point, we might see some of the social media traffic moved off chain.
It is going to be interesting how all of this unfolds. What is going to be the thing that instigates it all? We are still awaiting the answer to that question.
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I joined Hive a week ago and I’ve received the out of RCs message a couple of times. I’m not much of a math person but your stats are pretty realistic and easy to understand. I believe microblogging will really increase the demand for HP and could potentially drive Hive price up- from the little I knoe about demand and supply:)
This answers my question on your Post earlier today. Something about your account confuses me. There seems to be two different accounts with your username(one with an additional two letters) so I’m kinda confused whether or not it’s the same person.
This will be a really great update. Some people that received delegated HP only use it for engagement(posting and commenting) and ignore upvotes, especially newbies. We(newbies) think we can’t give anyone as much as a penny so there’s no point in upvoting. But several newbies upvoting would make a difference. With the new RC delegating feature, delegators can simply lend the newbie RC which is needed for engagement whiles still keeping their HP for upvotes. If you look at this from another perspective, this will be a disadvantage because then the newbie will not be able to give back to the community in the form of upvotes with RC delegations.
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Yes they are both my accounts. I set up the "le" one when Leofinance came into being.
The upgrade is a fantastic move. We will see how it is utilized but it is great to see the code going in place.
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I would presume that this would all happen at application level for a serious project like Leo.
When people sign up they will be auto delegated the rc under the new rules and build up enough stake to power their own accounts. Maybe even a 5% levy of the rewards to keep building up the Leo hive power and scale with an expanding user base.
Either way its exciting to see some of the plans finally coming to fruition and hopefully with HAF we see a few more apps coming in the near future.
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I would presume the automation at the app level will take place. Leo is smart to develop something like that.
However, it might have to tap into other resrouces. I have a ton of RC I dont use each day and it might be to Leo's benefit to reward me in LEO to delegate to those from their app who needs it.
A lot of possiblities.
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It will be interesting to see how this works with the RC delegation system. Will there be an option to delegate on the site for the benefit of leo or will there be an open market for accounts to make a little profit from it.
Lots of possibilities.
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So when we get RC delegations doesn't this mean that accounts like @giftgiver could give out the same amount of RC = The HP its given out now right?
But with the benefit of being able to gain more Hive quickly since they hold on to their HP thrust giving them more RC quickly.
Riight ??? xD
It will likely be the same process. The difference is that when one delegates HP, he or she (or it) loses the VP that goes with it. That ends up in the hands of the one delegated to.
With RC delegation, the RC "power" is given to the new account but there is no increase in voting power. That only comes from having control of the HP.
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Hmm, thats true.
Properly going to be the same as before then.
Except there will likely be a willingness to delegate unused RC. No point in keeping it.
The same might not be true for HP.
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Ye true. So its a good thing for accounts like Ecency and Peakd and others who create accounts for the network :D
More and more applications which is what I love seeing. Hive is one of the few chains right now developing at a rather good pace in this so called "bear market" or "crypto winter".
The tricks going to be onboarding new people and how we deal with that. Resource credits need to be clearly explained or the application that's onboarding people needs to figure out a way to delegate enough resources to valid accounts and then keep tabs on them. Things like removing the delegation of that person has earned enough on their own or is inactive for a period of time. Also a way to buy hive and stake it easily while understanding what that means.
I have a feeling a delegation system is going to be needed at first which means applications are going to need a rather robust supply of hive powered up.
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I have a feeling an application like Leofinance will build a bot that handles that. So if there are parameters met, like a certain amount of RC reached through powering up of Hive or inactivity, the RC delegation will be taken.
But yes, the development is really going to cause a thirst for RCs. I feel the microblogging is going to cause a great need. Even that alone, with some decent numbers, will equate to a push for more $HIVE being powered up.
We will see the existing RCs (from HP) delegated out and then it will fall to buy demand.
Couple this with growth in other areas and things could get tight very quickly.
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So it looks like it's going to be both an advantage and a disadvantage. There will be more demand for HP which means more people will be buying Hive and staking it.
On the other hand, new users who would want to engage on chain will find themselves in some unsteady situation. Unless they have a glimpse of the dynamism of the situation, they might not stay for awhile. Why you I have to wait for X amount of time to engage on chain only to wait for another X amount of time to engage again?
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I am going to presume the applications that are onboarding the users will have to do like STINC did back in the day. They will have to provide RCs from their pool. I wouldnt be surprised to see applications offer their native tokens in exchange for RC delegating to individuals on their behalf.
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These figures has really given me a better understanding than what I previously have. I love when figures comes in play.
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I once had the RC issue when I was much younger on the chain and I was very much on fire then. Like you said, the demansmd for RC delegation to newbies will be on the rise. Maybe we could bet on it to earn?🤔😅
Well formed opinions here and it seems that Hive Power is going to be in demand soon if your prediction is correct. Hive has been making a good run in recent days too and I think it will be back to $1+ before Christmas.
I think of D.Buzz as the Twitter on Hive.
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If we can get a few more applications pop off like Project Blank, the cost of RCs should bloom. However, I think our RC cost depends on how many people are active. So as our userbase increases so do the amount of HP one will need. It does look like the applications can cover this cost if RC delegations are enabled.
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Resource credits delegation will be a game changer and this will help develop hive in a positive way, imagine the success it will bring to hive by allowing the newbie easily becomes successful and this means more accounts created and more exposure for hive.
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Another IMPORTANT use case for RC delegation would be for those users that are running infrastructure nodes, I'll give my simple example: I'm running one Spk node and another two nodes for Ragnarok, to keep my main account safe I had to create two new Hive accounts to use with them nodes. These new accounts need to post Custom Jsons on the blockchain every few minutes or so(every 5 minutes if it's only one node per account), and they need to have enough RCs in order to be able to do that.
I am currently wasting about 500HP delegated to those accounts, RC delegation will change that and free my "wasted" HP.
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Great emphasis on the resources being more on demand on Hive and making a comparison with WAX blockchain that is quite true. With more apps coming to this ecosystem, Hive will be needed more and more to be in different places at the same time and consume from the blockchain. That can only benefit this entire ecosystem and strengthen the value embedded within the Hive token.
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Thank you for this post.
When the time to delegate RC comes, I will be ready.
I am soooo looking forward to that and am happy it is so close by.
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