Hello, LBIers. Today im going to go against the grain, not too much against the grain but more of a reminder that you never sell the family cow for magic beans. Lately, I have seen a few posts on LeoFinance, in fact, there seems to be an influx of posts from users are talking about what a great time it is to buy polyCUB and how to convert LEO into polyCUB with no thought of the impact this has for the price of LEO.
Now listen, it's nice to be bullish and show support for anything LeoFinance related but advising people to convert base LEO into polyCUB is not good advice. These posts started a few days back when the price of polyCUB was 22 cents each and today the price is 14 cents meaning everyone that listened to the advice of converting LEO to polyCUB is now losing 50% of their investment. I mean this stuff really boils my blood.
How would you all feel if I were to say, "OK folks, LBI is powering down its LEO stake to convert it into polyCUB". You would think I have lost my mind but I see nothing but support in these posts and I think to myself, why is nobody saying this is a really stupid idea and bad for the price of LEO?
Yes, I understand polyCUB is bottoming out but is it really bottoming out? Do farm tokens bottom? Look at CUB (BSC) as an example, what was its bottom? I'd bet it's at whatever price it is today and I'd be right. So what do I think polyCUB's bottom is? I'd say lower than its price now. Why? because it's a farm token.
You might be thinking, but polyCUB is different, it has a hardcap of 7 million and all these super amazing tokenomics with lots of buzz words. Khal talks about it so passionately and the whole community is behind it. They are going to do this and do that and it's going to be amazing. All true but fact of the matter is the hype of the news is normally greater than the actual event and polyCUB is a farm token. Maybe I have a black and white view of the world but a farm token is a farm token. Did IDOs help the price of CUB or did it lose a bunch of investors' money? That was shilled as a game-changer but had no impact and was quickly forgotten. I think they did it once and then never again. A farm token's only value is what you can trade it for. HIVE and LEO are used for influence, ETH and BNB are used to pay gas fees on their networks, CEL and NEXO are used to earn more on saving or pay less interest on loans, DEC and SIM are used for gaming to give a few examples. What purpose/value has a farm token?
The 7 million cap means nothing if there is no buying demand for the token. As long as there is always more selling volume compared to buying volume, the price will go down. HODLing is a non-event, if more are being sold than being bought, the price will go down. If 6.5 million are locked in xPOLYcub and within 24 hours, 200k are sold while only 50k are bought, the price will go down. Im sorry, but this is the reality of farm tokens. LeoFinance's community is no different then investors in any other farm. You either on the selling side or buying side. One is profitable and the other is not. I know it sounds super bearish and negative but that's the way the game plays. Dont mix emotions with investments. Anyone that has bought polyCUB is at a loss right now, 100% of everyone is losing money. I mean it's gone straight down, there were no small moons where it jumped from 30 cents to 40 cents, it just went down. Surely there is a lesson to be learned here? If not, I feel sorry for you.
This is not only about polyCUB tokens, im talking about all farming tokens. Never buy them because they are created by a smart contract from thin air and you can get them for free by using other cryptos.
Converting your hard-earned LEO in polyCUB is not a good idea. Think of all the hours of grind you put into your content and how long you've been saving and compounding down your LEO. People who advised others to convert LEO in polyCUB a few days should be feeling pretty bad right about now as their advice has lost people money, 50% of anything they converted. All the hours of grind for what? to lose 50?% Damn, I never knew it was so expensive to show commitment.
If you feel like farming, convert your LEO to pLEO, match it off with MATIC and get into the pLEO/MATIC LP and get some polyCUB for free.
My advice would be to keep your LEO on the HIVE blockchain. Im dont know much about charts but I can see that from CUBfinance was launched on March 21, pretty much all LEO inflation has gone into liquid holdings, I assume these are wallet holdings LEO wraps of bLEO and pLEO.
We can see that around 5 million is held liquid, just under half of all LEO circulating. I ponder to myself and think, when someone wraps 10,000 LEO to bLEO/pLEO, what do they do with that bLEO/pLEO?
a - Match it off with BNB/MATIC they already own to enter the farm
b - Convert half to BNB/MATIC to enter the farm
c - Convert it completely into a different crypto
I would say that not alot of people are using option A and it would be 50/50 between B and C. This creates lots of selling pressure on LEO and overall is bad for the price of LEO as I'd guess more are being sold than bought because you would have just wrapped a bunch of LEO and have no need to buy it. Im sure other things factor into LEO's price decline but I'd say people selling wrapped versions of LEO is not helping.
I said it before, but dont sell the cow to get magic beans cause you're killing the cow and we can't milk a dead cow.
Ok, not a bearish post today but from my POV, I have watched LBIs LEO holding drop from almost $250k down to closer to $50k today and I need to understand why this has happened and predict it will continue to happen. The price of polyCUB is on its path but LEO has hope and if the focus was put back toward HIVE, it could be amazing again. Focusing on expanding to other blockchains and sucking out whatever value is left is not very bullish for LEO overall. LBI, CL and SPI all convert harvests into bLEO and unwrap them back to HIVE each week and I wish others would do the same.
As I see it, the more CUB farms that are released, the lower the LEO price will go as people wrap them up so they can and then sell half or more to get into the next farm. I could be way off on this and time will tell.
At the end of the day, it's your money and you can invest it how you like. I see alot of posts with people saying it's a great time to invest in polyCUB and I think that's bad advice so have decided to play devil's advocate. I think people are scared to write posts dissing polyCUB but what do you have to lose? LBI is down $200k, im sure your personal bags are down. A few downvotes or comments telling me im a donkey because I've not mentioned X, Y or Z will hardly bother me to be honest.
Do your own research and try to remove your emotions from investing. Seeing that crypto or investment has dropped 97% is not always a signal it's a good time to invest, it's dropped that much for a reason and if it were worth more, people would not sell it so cheaply. Be safe and only ever risk an amount of money you can lose and not care about.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
This is one bitter truth that needs telling! Am glad to be sticking to my goal of hitting 5k LP by end of the year and so far not distracted. I want in on Polycub but don't want to be distracted by against my LP goal.
This I will remember, thank you!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Damn right, set a goal and stick to it and you'll complete it. It's the only way. Really refreshing to see someone with a bit of determination and focus.
Thank yooou for your comment. That's picked me up a little
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I finally started setting concrete goals.
10% growth here, 10% growth there etc etc.
I am glad to be paying attention because some tokens like LEO and CTP are growing at a much faster rate.
I feel like earning LEO is earning dollar coins, while earning CTP is like earning quarters.
I hope I am right.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Hmmm, I'll take my 50/50 please
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
😂
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Awesome!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I like PolyCUB and CUB and I'm involved in both but I agree with this. LEO is currently my number one crypto priority so I'm keeping most of my LEO powered up
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Its like taking money from your grocery budget and getting some take out.
Nothing wrong with that, but you still need to keep groceries in your fridge.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
That's a great analogy!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Damn right, nothing wrong with be involved but good to hear your LEO is #1
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Well, I am only risking part of the LEO I get each month but I do see that farm tokens aren't holding up that well. It makes me wonder if I should be sticking to something like the BNB/bLEO pool instead.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I'd say BNB/BLEO is safer than holding CUB in the kingdom. I mean farm with BNB/BLEO and stake your harvests that you get for free to the kingdom and at least that way you would be free rolling. LEO could go down more but damn, it's down enough already!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Remember when it was 2:1 LEO:Hive?
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Sometimes it pays to be lazy and just ignore the whole DeFi scene like I'm doing since forever :P Good thing LBI and CL exists to wreck their brains for me :)
I personally play with defi but any a small slice. Most of my crypto is in cefi lending platforms building at 5-10% depending on the crypto. I'd prefer the lazy approach myself :)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I'm in excellent company I see :)))
met me in real life and you might change your mind, lol
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
if we get around to buying Hive island sure, but the drinks are on you :)
Sometimes I think I’d have been a lot better off if I did exactly this.
Posted using LeoFinance Mobile
The truth is that I cannot agree with what you say. Why is a farm token useless? The farm is your utility, it depends on the farm. Let's take the example of PolyCub and a maximum offer of 7 million. If the farm rewards those who do agriculture with farm tokens, it must have a system that supports the price so that it is interesting to be in the Pool or give more farm tokens. Once the issued token reaches 7 million, the farm must go to the market to buy farm tokens to remunerate the pools, creating a balance or increase in price.
Another thing is that some farms issue a pseudo-free token to them, make a profit and abandon the token.
This has a name that I am not going to say and it could be repeated as many times as you want. In the non-virtual world doing this takes you to a place that I'm not going to say either but that most people would not like to be.
I think I missed the explanation, sorry.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
What don't you understand?
Protocol-owned liquidity isn't close enough to make a 'decent' impact yet and the price will keep going down in the meanwhile.
I estimate that the PoL should be around 50-100K$ now (and maybe I'm being optimistic).
Assuming this 100K$ is producing a 20% APR (again optimistic), we're talking about 20K$/YEAR (assuming everything else static).
20K$ (revenue per year)/7M (max supply poly) = 0,0028 cents yielded per polycub/year.
0,0028/0,138 (actual price) gives us a PER of ~49, which means it would take 49 YEARS for the PoL to sustain the current price of polycub of 0,138$. I'm not taking into consideration PoL growing or more utilities for Polycub... But anyway, multiply this number by 10. You got 4,9.
You'll wait ~5 years to break even with polycub...? Answer honestly. IMHO it's a 'HELL NO!'
Polycub should continue to fall as its only value proposition (yield) is being cut in half in a week or so. In my opinion, it's still overvalued.
Moral: don't invest in farms, just take the crops.
I do not intend to create any controversy, I only give my humble opinion.
I wasn't referring to PolyCub, I just took it as a farm token reference. I believe that a farm token can be just as valid as another token if things are done correctly.
I have not understood what you mean by the PER?
What PER did Google or any other similar technology have two months after listing?
Google now has PER 27 if I haven't looked at it wrong. Is it a lot or a little? I do not know, that's the truth.
In my humble opinion the market pays expectations not realities.
If you have a 1% 10-year US Treasury bond today it is worth less than it was a week ago and probably more than it will be the next.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Me 2! I'm just trying to understand your point since I believe you're mistaken and I'm also trying to constructively share my point of why polycub (should) keep falling..
The PER is the Price to Earnings Ratio and it's a way to value shares of companies. And although is true that we can't compare apples with oranges in that sense, we can still value the current utility of polycub (which at the moment is to be bought & burnt by the PoL) by the revenue the protocol itself is able to generate.
The problem is that 99,9% of farm tokens are blatant money grabs and it's very difficult to make them sustainable unless you're a first mover. Damn! even pancake is struggling with that (and will die given enough time). How do you value if things ''are done correctly''?
I totally agree with you.
That is simple and complicated at the same time. You have to analyze the project and the team that mainly directs it. Any investment has some leap of faith.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
You make a few valid points. Some farms can have a use case 100% but i dont see it with polyCUB.
Thank you for your feedback and writing a interesting reply 😁
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
You may be a donkey but if so you are a flying talking donkey!
We're all donkeys, lol
Hope you've recovered from your weekend hangover, lol
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
This is the illusion caused by the dip. Personally, I think I haven't converted any of my Leo to cubs, but the reality is most people just wants to make the most of their money, that's why most are converting. It's absolutely tanking the price on all fronts
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I wish people understood making 15-20% on a crypto where the price remains stable is better than earning 100% with a crypto that tanks 90%.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Hahaha that's true, but the the incentive of making higher returns can drive people crazy
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I have a small interest in Cubfinace and Polycub. For me, it is more an educational fund to see what all this Defi Lark is all about, and with that, I feel I am learning. Holding Leo, LBi and Hive are really where I place most of my hope for the future.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
This is why I hold CUB.
What I learned:
I hate paying for fees.
I don't like having to move my money around to find the "best" place
Hours upon hours of research for information that seems ever changing is too much work.
20% HBD is easier
Investing in spinvest was the easiest of them all
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
SPI is much more into defi than LBI because I feel a little restricted to what I can do with LBI funds.
But investing in small amounts is the smart thing to do. Defi will still be around in years so its not going anywhere and you have all the time in the world to go hard.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Very interesting. Someone told me a long time ago that you don't buy farm tokens so I have tried to stick to that. It doesn't always work out for me, but in general I try to follow that advice. Everything is down right now. It's hard to know what is going to be a winner and what isn't.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yea, the billion-dollar question. What's going to win.
Nothing wrong in my POV with holding a farm token if you got it for free. Plus we all break our own rules sometimes. As long as its not to often 😁
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
The dust bowl was caused by farmers overworking the land.
They didn't know any better.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Very basic question. Seemingly very tough for the community to answer objectively ...
As always, thank you for your "straight talk" style of writing. I wish there were more following your lead, rather than the lead of others ...
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I've spent too much time playing with defi losing and making money. I cant sit back and watch people advise others to convert decent crypto into a farm token. Maybe not best to be posting from the lbi-token account but I know it gets alot of readers. lol.
Thank as always my friend for reading through this post and leaving some feedback.
I must have 20 half written posts saved in drafts with my straight talk but I never upload them. haha
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I wouldn't be concerned with that, but ... My $0.02. 😉
Exactly. Your intentions come from the right place. We all can read what any one of us chooses to write and then form our own opinion.
In so doing, we are then much better equipped to make well-informed decisions, which is absolutely essential when investing ... (Or when making any consequential decision in life)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I have kept my targets from day one and achieving 10K Leo was more important than selling for farm tokens. having value curating within the community for me is way more important and can be just as lucrative if you build.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
hear hear. It can be more lucrative for sure. LEO was around 20 cents when polyCUB launched and it's down 30%-35% while polyCUB is down over 95%. Earning 15-20% with your LEO is probably better than earning whatever the APY is for xpolycub at the minute. If you'd put $100 into both LEO and polyCUB on launch day, i think LEO would be worth more $ today.
Excellent to hear you're sticking to your plan and target of 10k LEO. LEO will still be around and used in 3 years, we know this.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Very good point about farm tokens here. And potentially overlooked by people who are buying Polycub rather than farming it.
Thanks for the reminder!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yes, get it for free.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Couldn't agree more.
Obviously ;)
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Your the last comment i have to answer for now. Just went through 13 so super happy to see your very short comment :)
Super surprised i've got no shit for this post so far.
Thanks for checking it out old mate.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Reading your post got me the trust the open mind concept.
While DEFI highlights the randomization of a futile percentage, the homecoming token tanks with inflation.
Got me wonder, is it a design magnet?
Hope for the best for both and think a rebound for long term is secured.
This is one attribute of DEFI that can trick you to eternal nightmares. After all where do you think the value comes from? The wound is still fresh. let's keep putting the dressing to nurse the gap. After all it belongs to all of us.
!BEER
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
View or trade
BEER.Hey @lbi-token, here is a little bit of
BEERfrom @pouchon for you. Enjoy it!Learn how to earn FREE BEER each day by staking your
BEER.I agree here.
I thought CUB was a great investment when it first started and I was all over it.
I heard promises about how there would be no rug pull and there would be lots of base uses and etc etc.
But here is my CUB at 0.09.
It's basically a bag.
I am weary about polyCUB too - and I am thankful for this article because I was starting to feel fomo.
But you can't have long term investments based on FOMO,and its too expensive to move money around instead of just staying put.
I like the "get rich slow" mentality of the blockchain, cause spoiler alert, its not that slow.
I like LEO and look forward to it growing, and don't much like that it is being syphoned out of, but all I can do is keep stacking, and keep delegating - it will just make it easier to earn more and I don'tbelieve it will turn into a bag.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Good thoughts. I've been a bit confused about all the hype when the value is dropping. I'm new to all this tokenomics stuff, but it doesn't look great to me. I did do a trial test to convert a couple of hive into polycub but will leave it at that.
!hivebits
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Success! You mined .9 HBIT & the user you replied to received .1 HBIT on your behalf. mine | wallet | market | tools | discord | community | <><
One thing with crypto that I have observed is that no one can predict the bottom. Even sometimes strong support doesn't guarantee bottom.
Supporting the price of your own is a way to make it grow.
Thanks for sharing
Cheers
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Enough LEO and POLYCUB and CUB might go to pHBD (and USDC) these days. Which is bad for all 3 of them, and good for pHBD.
We have heard nothing but Polycub in the last weeks. It would be nice to read about something else.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Ha! But I can't help degenning (not a word I know) into those things :-)
Having said that, I do agree with what you say. However, there is always that small chance that they could hit it big :-)
I have decided pretty much the same as you say and am redoubling my efforts to rebuild on LEO (and a lesser extent on HIVE). Going forward, atleast until the next shiny object comes along I am concentrating on building a HIVE savings and amassing as much LEO as I can.
Of course that is easy to say, since I have a pretty big bet (losing at this point) outstanding on CUB/pCUB. I am not going to reduce those, but will transfer all the gains back into LEO/HIVE. It would probably be smart to take some of the large stakes there and liquidate some to do that rebuilding, but I still hold out that CUB/pCUB do some some potential to go big and will ride those puppies down for the most part :-)
Polycub has potential especially and CUB will possibly give some more drops that could be sold or rode down too :-) I expect polycub to end up with more value a year from now than I put into it. CUB -- who knows -- less certain about that.
Anyway I am already about 10% of the way back on my LEO stack and expect to be 100% back to my LEO baseline before the end of the year. This time I will not likely draw it down again.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta