By now most have heard of the announcement (of announcements) regarding the new application that Leofinance is developing. This is going to be "Twitter on the blockchain". Now, that concept means nothing to most people but more on that later.
What is vital to understand is how big this can be. Obviously, short form content apps were tried before with limited success. What makes this one different?
The key to social media is engagement. While many like to write (and read) long form content, the reality is that most of the Internet is nothing more than little snippets of information posted. There is a reason why Twitter and Facebook became so successful. They certainly are a lot more popular than Linkedin which is more narrow in scope and requires posts to be long from.
Medium is another example which trails the other two.
Originally considered to be a feature on Leofinance, the decision was made to form its own separate application which would appeal to the entire spectrum. This is not going to be simply about cryptocurrency or financial matters. Users can post whatever they want just like on Twitter.
It is going to send the engagement numbers on Hive through the roof. While comments average about 4,000 per day, they will get a lot bigger when this is released. Already we see people who are on Leofinance stating how they will post 20 or even 30 times using this application. After all, it is very easy to send out a meme, photo, or just a few words summarizing one's thoughts. Those 25 word posts with a link to a YouTube video that are despised on Hive as sh*itposts are now perfectly acceptable on this application.
The Leofinance community is already posting between 600-1,000 comments per day. This is one of the most involved communities on Hive and will only grow.
Also, according to the last Leo Roundtable post, there will be a place on the app where one can go and chat, in near real time, just like in a Discord group. This means that more activity can be pulled on chain, further enhancing the numbers.
Engagement is what is going to help retain users. People simply do not want to hang around on an application that is "dead". When there is activity, newer individuals start to engage also. This only makes things grow.
Thus, instead of trying to appeal to them with simply money, engagement can provide a sound foundation because there is a lot of activity.
While money might not be the main focus, there is tokenomics to the new application. This is going to be both separate from LEO and tied together.
At this point, we do not have the details but we were told this will be a proof-of-brain model. The token will have similar attributes to what else takes place on Hive. Of course, since all activity does end up on Hive, one will also be able to earn HP as a reward, although that will be secondary to the focus of most.
Not knowing the details, the new token is going to be "tied" to LEO and the governance token will be released. Even though this is a separate application, it is all part of the same ecosystem. Thus, I would presume that the token holders for microblogging application will be a part of the governance.
We are also going to see the token value strengthened by the use of liquidity pools on other chains. This will create arbitrage opportunities that tend to push price discovery to a greater level. When these situations present themselves, traders tend to smooth out the pricing. At the same time, the value of another token increasing has an impact on the Hive based ones as we see with wLEO.
This might not be of much interest to the general public but it will hold appeal to those who use the application and are into crypto trading. Having a full ecosystem that has that a major component will help to satisfy that desire that many have.
One of the biggest steps forward by Leofinance was the streamlining of the onboarding process. This point cannot be underemphasized. Presently, a new user can get active on Leofinance simply by signing up with his or her Twitter account. This makes the process last a few seconds and the individual can get active.
The new application will carry the same ability. This is important since it is an applications that caters to Twitter users. Since most will have a Twitter account, there is no barrier to getting involved. This is a Web 3.0 application mirroring Web 2.0 functionality.
Of course, a Hive account is required. This is where Leofinance has the ability to create a lot of accounts over the next year. Presently, the platform is claiming enough accounts to sign up 400-500 users per day.
Consider that for a moment: What if Leofinance is signing up 400-500 new users a day; people who get active immediately? Most are aware of Twitter and since much of the promotion will likely take place on there, those who log on will be familiar with the process. Of those who do sign up in the early stages, there will likely be a high retention rate.
Hive has always discussed how to we get more users? Here it is. Also, the retention of users will be greater than the 5%-10% that Hive runs at (or whatever it is).
We are also going to see, around the time of the release of the application, the ability to sign up using Google, Facebook, or email accounts. This will only enhance the ease of use for getting people started.
The Market Exists
One of Hive's biggest selling points to content creators is that their account cannot be closed nor can their posts be taken down. This is not true with the existing, centralized social media applications. We all witnessed what took place over the last year with people "violating the Terms of Service". This is obviously a bullsh*t claim and is nothing more than silencing viewpoints that are disagreed with.
Twitter is one of the main ones engaging in this practice. While the publicity died down, we can be certain the practice has not stopped. The way things are looking, it will only be ramping up over the next few months.
When you have a ready-made market, it is, as they say, like shooting fish in a barrel. The people are seeking a solution to their problem. Here we have a problem where individuals are continually at risk of having their accounts closed and their data erased from public view.
With this new application, like all else on Hive, that cannot be done here. While users can sign up using Twitter, the Hive account that is created in the background can be claimed at any moment. This puts the ownership of the account and all that is created through it in the hands of the individual.
We take this for granted on Hive but it is a big deal in the general public. Think of all those in the scientific, political, and news communities who are being silenced through this actions. Then consider all those who are at risk of having this happen. That number is likely far bigger than those who were displaced.
The Impact On Hive
To determine, in general terms, the impact on Hive, we have to guess at what the activity will be like. This is going to take some speculation yet I think it can be done.
Since the censoring is so well known, the "selling" of this application is simple. This will serve as a Twitter front end. Anything that is posted through the application can feed through to one's Twitter account (just like posts on Leofinance can be automatically Tweeted). All the protections are provided yet the followers of the users will see the information the same as they always do.
Also, at some point, there could be a feature within the application that allows for one to pull the history for the account from Twitter and post it on the Hive. This will provide a full backup of all the work on did over the years.
Therefore, when looking at the market, and how things spread, it is likely we see 250K users within 12 months of the release of the application. That is the major impact upon Hive.
Consider how much more active this place would be with that many users. Presently, there are roughly 10K accounts transacting daily. This could 25x it.
Also, consider the number of Resource Credits required to get all those people interacting. A lot of HP is going to have to be tied to this project to satisfy the needs of the users.
Look at the path Twitter took:
Keep in mind that Twitter only started in 2006, there were far fewer people on the Internet, and social media is something that most had yet to hear about. Nevertheless, within 3 years, there were 30 million active users a month.
We are going to see similar trajectory on Hive although the numbers might be a lot lower. We know short form content is very popular with the Internet in general and that millions are presently displaced and looking for another alternative.
If the project is set up to be resistant to attack and truly decentralizes the infrastructure, then we have a solution that many are looking for.
Without realizing it, there are a lot of people looking for censorship resistant and immutability. This is something that Hive provides and this new application will deliver. They will not care if it is on blockchain since few know what it means. However, tell them you can keep their account AND data safe, and we see immediate interest.
Since the market it primed, we are likely to see a rapid increase in usage.
What are your thoughts? Let us know in the comments.
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