From my writings this week you probably have noticed I'm struggling with my thoughts.
I think the direction in which the blockchain is heading is fantastic with more entrepreneurs joining the blockchain.
In the long run I think this is the best move for the platform but not everyone agrees with that.
There is something positive about this too because the fact that we can talk about this blockchain on this blockchain tells me how good it is.
Right now every content creator is feeling it. Something is off. The payouts are going down yet the STEEM price is not so low.
Everything seems a little harder than before.
It's a perfectly normal consequence of blockchain.
More people are mining STEEM so the difficulty has gone up.
It's just going a lot faster then I thought.
It means that every STEEM you obtained so far was easier earned than it will ever be.
I'm very patient though.
I have been here for almost 2 years since I joined and I'm willing to be patient for years to come.
I have been trough every negative and happy period on this blockchain.
What I do know is that every STEEM will be harder and harder to obtain for everyone in the future.
In my 2 years here I have seen a lot of good people power down from frustration or fear or maybe the thought that they could always earn it back again.
I think that's a mistake if you believe this blockchain will be bigger and better in the future.
Steem tokens will be harder and harder to earn in the future.
The reason is simple:
You have more users/entrepreneurs competing over a reward pool that is fixed.
Now, I'm talking about the actual tokens (STEEM) not the value of the payouts in US dollars.
The payouts in US dollars might very well go up when the STEEM price increases but you will get less STEEM for your posts.
Example (with very simplified calculations):
Imagine the STEEM price is $1 and you have a $10 payout. That would result in 10 STEEM.
Now imagine the price of STEEM at $250 and you have a $250 payout. That would result in 1 STEEM.
or
Imagine the price of STEEM at $250 and you have a $10 payout. That would result in 0,04 STEEM.
Pretty simple! Right?
It's something you need to consider before you sell your STEEM.
In other words.
It basically means that anyone would have been better off keeping their STEEM if they sold under the current price of $2,30. (And that's not even taking in consideration how much more STEEM could have been generated by putting it in STEEMPOWER).
Only if you put those earnings into another investment that increased more or sold STEEM at a price higher than $2,30 would you have been better off (for now).
To show how 'easy' it used to be to earn STEEM for some I broke down the most successfull post in Steemit history under the circumstances from then compared to now.
The most successful post in Steem history in terms of payout value.
The most succesful post on the blockchain was this one here.
The famous makeup tutorial.
The payout for that one post was $31,543.
Back then that resulted in the following:
13,329 SBD + 9564 STEEMPOWER.
The price of STEEM closed on the markets that day at $3,25.
So the total value in USD for that 1 post was: $13,329 + (9564*$3,25) = $44,412
Not bad for one post!
Of course the whole blockchain was different back than.
We had an n^2 curve, a TWO year power down period and a inflation of 100%.
How would a post that high break down today?
$31,543
$31,543 * 0,75 = $23,657
SBD = $23,657 / 2 = 11,828 SBD
SP = $23,657 / 2 / current Steem price ($2,30) = 5142 SP.
This post would have resulted in: 5142SP + $11828 SBD
Now these types of payouts are no longer possible unless the STEEM price goes up to roughly $40-$50 (I estimated from a top trending post of around $1000 payout right now).
So realistically a post of $31,543 would break down to $11828 SBD + $23,657 / 2 / Steem price ($40) = 295 SP.
It's easy to see that no matter how high STEEM will go from here, earning it will be harder and harder.
I am a witness with our developer group @blockbrothers for the Steem blockchain. If you want to support us I would appreciate your vote here.
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Greetings, great Master of knowledge in Steem, Exyle
Very interesting your writing about Steem. I hadn't thought of that. I found that with the growth in the price of the Steem currency, the value of the votes would tend to be proportionate. Now that I understand that with the highest input of people, it gives a certain amount of time in the pool of rewards, that would be it???
There is a doubt that arises in relation to your text. I wonder if actually the Steem currency can achieve this value all (I hope it can) and how long we will be able to use the Steemit platform well. I invested my money here in Criptomoedas, even though I know that this application is a risk...
Also, I was curious to know how the girl's makeup post achieved this monstrous value. I am a few months on the platform (I entered this year) and did not see a gain not a bit like that.
Thank you for posting and Good morning!!!
I'm with you on this, but really, I hope things get better on steemit for the good of everyone. But is there anything we can do to make things better?
I dont know man. I dont have the knowlegge of persons who make steemit and i am not good with new tecnology. I hope someone could help. I help people with another things, that i can do, but, not with tecnology!!
Lol, so we'll just hope....... I think it'll get better with time though
This kind of ingenuity in #steem will be mixed with SMT
Be there is my answer.
I have to say you have been there in the rough
No strange for you that it will be harder.
Thanks for this great reminder
Minor quibble. The reward pool is not fixed, but it does increase in size very slowly, relative to the number of accounts trying to draw from it. The reward pool gets a little bigger every day because of the Steem inflation rate. But the Steem inflation rate is now under 9% annually while the number of new accounts is increasing by about the same percentage monthly. And that’s before the upcoming fast-onboarding.
Thank you for this!
I’ve been harping on this idea in a lot of discussions lately! One of my favorite simple examples is...
There’s roughly 250 million Steem in existence and a 10% inflation rate, resulting in 25 million Steem distributed from the rewards pool each year. (This is a simplification) Imagine we grow to a very modest 10 million users... That would mean that on average each user will earn just 2.5 Steem per year! And of course 2.5 is the average, what would be accomplished if everyone earned equally. The median earning will be far less. Average non professional, non entrepreneurial users will assuredly earn less than 1 Steem per year.
The Steem blockchain is a wonderful toolset, but not a cornucopia of cash! We are all very fortunate to have been here at the outset. This is very pertinent when setting expectations with new incoming users. It’s up to them whether they feel fortunate at their still early arrival, or disheartened by the road ahead.
SMTs may prove critical in enabling feelings of growth, accomplishment, and reward for the mass of users, even while Steem balances grow more stagnant.
Great point you make there @bryan-imhoff. Appreciate your input 👍🏻
Thank you for this well thought out comment.
As far as i see it, new users come mostly for the opportunity to make some cash, when they see their rewards are too little, they will stop using the account. The best way for users to stay is to give them ways to have fun here, like making games based on steem, etc....
@exyle,
STEEM is becoming more and more harder to earn now! For next 27 years we all get 3 times of market supply in this currency! So, in future STEEM price will go to moon!
Cheers~
I agree with your assessment. That is what I see also. The number of people coming to the STEEM blockchain is diluting the daily reward pool. Couple that with entrepreneurs all seeking SP, and it gets difficult.
That is why SMTs are so exciting. There will be platforms on here that allow for blogging that reward people in the SMT. Of course, these are paired with STEEM so that is how people can earn STEEM without competing with the dapps.
Just to verify because I read about it but I'm not 100% sure.
Let's say Dlive had an SMT.
When I vote on content on dlive (and they only show payouts in SMT's), would my vote also give the person I vote for an underlying amount of STEEM as well as the SMT?
Sorry to cut in... but I believe this is all correct. Here’s a couple snippets from the white paper.
The following rules are applied to determine whether tokens are votable:
• STEEM is votable for every post.
• A token is votable for a post if it appears in the post’s votable_assets.
• Otherwise, the token is not votable for this post.
• At most two tokens may be specified in votable_assets. This means that each post is voted with at most three tokens (including STEEM).
Thanks, man!
No prob. Made me realize I need to re-read that paper! There is definitely more info & details than I remember from release... I wonder when it was last revised.
I'll do the same!
There is no "competing" when people simply allocate Steem to themselves or the highest bidder. The analogy of Bitcoin mining difficulty breaks down there because mining difficulty increases for all miners, whereas there is no difficulty increase for self-voters or vote sellers. In fact it gets easier as they allocate themselves more stake with which to vote.
Wouldn't that be the same as Bitcoin miners buying better equipment with their earnings?
The moment you stop buying new equipment and start cashing out Bitcoin you can't keep up with the difficulty.
You have to reinvest and keep investing in better miners.
Ultimately leading to fewer parties being able to earn Bitcoin (but the price going up anyway).
When you compare SP to mining equipment it would be the same.
The difference on here is that it's possible to 'use/receive' someones else's SP to mine.
i think this answers my question.
No, nothing like buying mining equipment. Mining equipment gets obsoleted as difficulty rises, there is only a window of operational profitability which declines over time. Self voters only increase their share of issuance perpetually with no ongoing costs or window of profitability.
I think that there are costs, but they’re hidden. There’s a lost opportunity costs for every self vote. 100% self-voting is very effective in the short run (I’ve seen estimates in the 30-35% annual return range), but it achieves that at the expense of building relationships. If you’re not voting for and commenting on other’s posts, you might completely miss the chance to attract the attention of dolphins, orcas, and maybe even whales who might provide upvotes for years to come.
does this hurt the system?
Yes. Over time more and more of the budget will be lost to unproductive rent seeking.
Most people aren’t here for the STEEM. They are here for the USD.
You can’t pay your bills and groceries with STEEM, you pay them with fiat.
Agree, you can't yet.
But selling 1000 STEEM for 10 cent last year for $100 USD or selling it now for $2300 (@ $2,30) is a big difference.
And that 1000 STEEM from last year was a lot easier earned than a 1000 STEEM now + that 1000 STEEM could have generated more STEEM in a year.
I'm trying to be honest about how I see things.
Everyone can decide what to do with it.
Mark @exyle You are Correct and the People that leave STEEM and go into FIAT may very well be disappointed in a year or Two that they did not stay Powered UP.......
True .
That's the logic brother, you are right with this assertion, the more people coming on board the more it would be hard getting more payout, since those investing in the system is smaller compared to the people trying to earn it all. I believe , just like you have said, it will be more difficult getting more steem in the nearest future so the desire to hold on to the steem you have at present should not be over emphasize. Long live steemit, long live #scaredsoul.
I perfectly understand your point when it comes to Steem price. The higher price, tougher it gets to earn Steem. With increasing number of Steemit members it gets even tougher.
I agree with you! For some people it’s hard to admit, but one of the reasons it’s much tougher now is delegation to voting bots. I noticed many people are not only powering down, more and more people also delegate to voting bots. This leads to lower numbers of real people voting the contents. This also leads to lower curation rewards. Most of the rewards go to voting bots. They don’t even upvote you within first 30 min. where you could get most of the curation rewards and if the do, they upvote you with $1.5 for every 1.00 sbd you pay them. They are getting more and more greedy, like it or not.
When it comes to record paid content, I say “WOW”. Unfortunately forget about it today, unless you buy votes, it’s imposible to get this number.
Great 👍 post though!
Thank you, @exyle for expalining this so well. I too believe it will become more difficult to earn steem here just because of the sheer numbers of people and the limited reward pool. No matter how they like to look at it, it is still paying for content and development over any other platform that doesn't pay at all. We won't mention names to protect the innocent (or guilty as the case maybe)
I am pretty new around here and I am curious was the rewards pool always at about 740,000 STEEM or it got "filled" over time? I joined in February and since then it is still at about that 740 k mark.
You are correct. The reward pool is constantly 'filled'.
Yes i agree it seems to be getting harder, but like you said that's all part of the growth of the chain. I'm happy I've been here a year at least! Great article @exyle, hope you're doing well! We'll have to chat again sometime soon!
This is a nice example @exyle and I totally agree. Mining is going to be harder and harder.
But if the price of Steem reaches at 250$ mark, I am pretty sure that everyone around here will be more than happy. From top investors to minnows.
Let’s take me for example. Right now my vote worth more or less around.20 at 100%. If steem’s price goes to 250$ my vote will have a value of 20$. Imagine those who have a vote worth 100$ nowadays...
Let's play and take that $250 number. Yes, your vote would be much higher. But also your total account value would be $161,750. Would you be willing to leave it all in and risk it all?
@exyle that’s a problem most of us would love to have. Lol. I would Imagine most Minnows in that position would take some out and I wouldn’t blame them. I probably would to a small degree but I think it would also totally depend on how Steemit in general was doing. Growing and healthy? Probably leave most in for influence here. Right now at 100% I’m just under a .20 payout. I’m hoping to continue to grow here to where I can make more of a difference and delegate, sponsor more, and any other way that I can help quality creators grow. I’m in it for the long haul!!! Great post!
I wouldn't of course. Maybe i could cash out some of it. But I also see people here with millions of SP and yet, they still don't cash out even if they bought when the price was like .07 - 0.1 which is the same analogy ...And mining steem would be 100 times more difficult, BUT it would allow me to practically make a living through my posts and my payouts. And considering the fact that this price won't happen tomorrow I would probably have even higher balance,like everyone.
What I am trying to say is that such a huge pump in the price would have many benefits. Just think of the people in third world countries. It would be a life changing factor for them.
Maybe not for me and you because we live in Europe and life is far more expensive but for them, it would be a miracle!
I just joined 4 months ago, I entered just in the time where bid bots took over (I am not again bid bots if used wisely to promote high quality content, but there is use, and abuse sadly) I have not used them, frankly, kind of naively want to think I can make a true engagement here. I have grown a little disenchanted, the more people (and welcome be) the more difficult it's to mine, and if you consider the extra "rigging" factor I would consider I'm doing fairly well but I've been lucky to always have some "random" vote that saves the post from zero land. I try my best, and still determined to try my best a little longer.
Wow! Way to start my weekend on a downer :) Just kidding, I know it isn't necessarily a bad thing and I know that it is just a reality of the platform. I think it is important for new users to see things like this and understand that Steemit isn't necessarily a gold mine. Many of the users with high payouts have been here a long time reinvesting in the system by powering up their rewards into SP. It's a long crawl for us newbies, but the platform still offers a ton of value.
I'm in a Steemit slump today @Exyle.
Please post some uplifting words for the newbies. I know you've got them in you. You know that stuff about us being early adopters and how brill the block chain is compared to others etc. etc.
Failing that send ice cream! 😂
Don't be in Slump. Be happy you are here today and that you discovered it in dec 2017! You are an early adopter.
Great message @exyle. Thank you. That's the ticket!! 😂
Very interesting! I think that to many people post here in cycle with the price of Steem - e.g. when the price of Steem is down they post less (because they think that they are earning less) and more when it rises. It shouldnt make to much of a difference when you post and if anything you should be posting more when the price goes down (less 'competition' for the rewards pool)
Im still waiting for this big price increase weve all been waiting for, but in the mean time I just keep on Steeming
It will be same occurrence in rising up
Great writing;
Would you please explain:
What do you mean mining?
Overall, i do agree with you, competition will make things harder, in the interest of consumers and quality of what people supply (here hopefully content)
I have this idea that steemit should let us monetize our old contents, ads can be a way or some other way like continues rewarding etc.
You use your mind here to dig, the more creative you are, the stronger your digging will be.
good choice of words. but don't you mind if I not call that mining? ;)
:)))
Very beautiful story
Thank you for the sharing post
Well said. Early adopters always have better chance to attain maximum profit. As the steem is progressing it is bringing more enterprenuer here in this platform which simply means more competition which eventually will make earning more difficult. So it's a right time to grab as many STeem power as you can. Let's hope SBD price will go up. It will be really helpful for new user to collect maximum SP. Thanks for shairng @exyle
Hej @exyle
i m new at steemit and i don´t understand the System with the posts. There are so many new posts in seconds. Nobody can react correctly to posts
You are very right @exyle, there are so many people mining steem right now compare to before.
But we still have to keep moving and continue working harder and hope for the better future of steem.
I believe in the future and I know there is better future ahead.
Thanks @exyle for sharing
People arent upvoting willy nilly anymore. Great info. Thanks for making it simple.
Joy
Definitely its going beyond the reach in some days it will be hard to earn even in fractions too from new comers time don't come again and again you just have to make use of it
As a new user this is hard to read, I hope I could be able to share good content and earn some money
This is bad news for the newcomers, this article has the right info which no one wants to admit but reality is reality.
Wow! That was something. where was I when steem was that good and that easy. The thing is I don't even look at my sp. I just powerup when I can then sell sbd. I want to be able to have as much stake as I can afford and be able to enjoy this ride to the very end. I came for the fun.
Thank you for confirming - I'm not touching my STEEM!
I also think that it will be very difficult soon get some steem. :)
What more here come users ... the more we have users who not get steem.
Just now collect and only use it when you very needed.
Good morning @exyle from Ohio. That makeup post is crazy! Man, could you imagine if Rewards were like that today? I got started last December so I only know the payout system as it stands now. Still excited though for the future and I’m keeping my SP where it is.
-Ken
As I said on one of your videos before, I´m working hard to get the a good amount of SP in my account, so when it gets impossible to get more I'll just appreciate the price of STEEM going up.
13,329 SBD + 9564 STEEMPOWER. LOL
I never even had 1% of that in a single post ;D
Thanks for the info, it's a little daunting to be a new user and read about this. I'm investing all my earnings in SP, but they are so little that I'm growing in a very low pace. I want to earn enough SP to ensure a significant SBD income in the future but I fear the pool get drain by all these initiatives.
Your point is correct - STEEM will be harder to earn in the future and the increase in difficulty will only be partially offset by increases in the USD/STEEM exchange rate. The interesting question is How does this affect the different types of Steemit users?
Some users are here trying to start a new account and hope to milk the system for cash. They are not interested in anything other than the USD value of their payouts and are constantly powering down to sell STEEM. They will be very disappointed in the results of their effort. In fact, the people who are doing that now are already finding that it is very difficult to generate income without investing significant amounts of time and money. That is a good thing for the system and it will probably get better in the future.
But what about users who are here for the long term and are willing to invest some time and money up front? There is a lot of discussion of post rewards, but I think that patient users can also earn good rewards through curation. I did a little experiment last month where I only earned STEEM through curation using Steemauto and followed @buzzbeergeek. My earnings were well above the 10%/year rate!
Among cryptocurrency fiends, that is a terrible rate. It takes decades for most people to buy a Lambo at 10%/year. But in the world of traditional investing 10% per year is a respectable return.
My point is that users who come for quick cash are going to be disappointed, but those who come for entertainment, friendship, and a modest economic return will be very pleased with Steemit.
Great post, I'm really still confused between steem the token (finite supply), SBD (I hear they want to peg it) and SP
Is SP worth the same as steem the token?
What value does SBD really have, can you convert it to SP or use USD?
If people want to increase their SP fast, will they just buy steem on the exchange and convert it?
How will SMT increase the demand of steem. I earn SMT, convert it to steem and sell it? Will steem demand increase only if people want to increase their SP?
Still very confusing to me. Any help would be great appreciated? Have been researching this for weeks, I think I'm getting somewhere, but trying to figure out my long term strategy.
As a new user who wants to establish a respectable reputation and add value to the platform I just hope I have the right strategy moving forward.
I'm focused on building relationships with other users through comments and adding value to posts where I see fit. I am currently powering up any and all rewards I receive into SP as I have read that should be my current focus. I originally set out with the challenge to build all of my SP organically, but the more I read I feel like I might be swimming in circles forever if I do not invest a little at the start. Do I have the right idea?
Feel free to chime in with your opinion!
ciertamente cada vez es mas difícil adquirirlo.
I thought mining steem was no longer possible