What's your plan for the bear market?
"Back in the day" there was really only two options available: Hold or Sell.
If people wanted to secure their bull market gains as prices tumbled into the bear, they had to sell into something that would protect them, which was fiat or more recently, stables. This "natural" process meant that the markets were flooded with sellers, reducing scarcity and adding a lot of downward pressure on prices. The more they fell, the more people would sell, until a price was reached where people on one side said, "I ain't selling for that!" and on the other, "This is my buy point!"
The floor.
Holders lamented not selling sooner, sellers were glad they sold. No-coiners celebrated the downfall with glee.
Times were simple.
But that simplicity has disappeared, because the crypto industry has been advancing and introducing new products and services that mean there are no longer just the straight buy and sell options, there are also various ways to invest for a return, whether it be staking as on Hive, as a Liquidity Provider for Yield, NFTs for token speculation, NFTs for gaming to rent or play, collateralization for interest earnings... the list goes on.
But, while everyone has a plan of some kind as to how they are going to approach this, most people still think in terms of buy and sell, especially the newbies into the market (there are many and will be many more in the next months) who are still unfamiliar with the industry and available options. They are likely to sell in the hope to buy back at the lows.
But, what are "the lows" going to be now that there are other options as to how to secure capital tokens, including holding for a relatively steady income yield? This is pretty much impossible to say, but at least a large percentage of people are not going to sell their tokens at all and instead gamble on the next bull market and hold their tokens. In the meantime, they might do something like, sell some percentage at the peaks for stables to stake for a yield return, stake the larger tokens in single-side pools for a return, invest into some usable NFTs like Axie, Gods Unchained or Splinterlands for a return, stake on Hive for curation and interest return.
I think that with a lot of these new options (old on Hive) there is the potential that there will be far more holders for yield than expected, meaning that as the price drops, market scarcity will set in earlier, so the return of the bulls might not be as far away as it was last time.
The other aspect of this is the yield itself. One of the problems I had in the depth of the last bear was that due to life circumstances and the fact that I was one of the "silly holders", I had almost nothing to buy with. However, this time around I plan on having enough from the highs and, enough in yield earning potential that when the lows return, I will be able to move something in. Due to the nature of crypto, that "something" needn't even be that much in order to be a significant investment come the following bull market return.
As we know, if a person would have consistently been putting 5 or 10 dollars a day (relative to location) into crypto the last 3 years, that amount would be more than decent now. For those who are able to lock up some of their tokens for yield, getting coffee money to invest into the bear prices shouldn't be too much of a hassle to obtain, and because it is still in crypto, swapping for other cryptos is far easier mentally than converting from fiat.
Again, I think this will mean that the lows will not be as low, as many people will see it as "free money" and start buying back with less risk than if they are directly injecting cash from their IRL wallet. They will likely buy back a bit earlier with less concern about hitting the bottom of the market price and as a result, that bottom will be higher, which will mean that for those looking for the "expected lows" based on past performance, it might never arrive and once it starts moving, they will be forced to get in higher than they had planned or, become no-coiners. This also means that the people who were buying, will be able to take profits earlier if they choose and if they are in tokens that will see volume, their small amounts will be rapidly supported, moving their "high buy" into a solid position faster. The market volatility will decrease.
Of course, this is just my speculation and mapping, as it helps me form a visual representation of my market beliefs that I can then track, adjust and act upon as I need. I think gone are the days where it is as simple as "I will sell at this price" as now there are many options to consider and pros and cons to each. I don't think the yield farming is going to be as lucrative as it is now, but even if the baseline is 10% and enough is held, that can be a significant buy-in over the space of a year, expanding token holdings and hopefully, setting a new personal wealth foundation to build upon for the future.
My goal is to have several income streams that are able to provide trickles I can use in the midst of the bear to invest deeper and then, five years down the track, things change again. I don't think I am the only one thinking along this vein, which means many people are looking to build personal "income support" channels that will allow them to hold their own, with what they own, in order to own.
As said, much of crypto is about the encouragement of resource and asset ownership and that means at some point, selling out to fiat gets taken out as an option for most, as it is essentially opting into the legacy system where we are predominantly renters. A lot of future wealth is going to be generated through passive means on products and services that are actively used and in the digital space, the range of available options is rapidly expanding. None of us are forced into taking part, but I think at some point, opting in becomes such a no-brainer decision, very few will remain no-coiners. I will keep holding and owning to enjoy that future.
So, what are your plans?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
They say that only when the last bear has capitulated, you call the top and the bear market begins.
The 2017 pump and crash burned so many people, that people are hedging, diversifying and taking some profits. To me that indicates the bears haven't capitulated yet and this thing has a way to run. Your post is paradoxically a bull signal!
Yeah, it seems there is a fair way to move still and I think there will be two hard pumps before any real bear signs.
I am a perma-bull on crypto - especially Hive :)
Also an idealist ;D
My plans now are to accumulate and stake like crazy. !BBH
Sounds like a plan to me!! :)
I'm staking some of my profits as USDT in a few places. APY 10-12%. Not too bad for me ;)
Which have been the "safest" in your opinion so far?
To be honest, if something is not in my private wallet it's not safe. Probably you have the same, but I calculated the risk and staked for 12% and 8% at crypto.com and at
Celsius for 10%APY
If you want to be flexible, better to use Celsius.
Why?
-better % for flexi term (you can withdraw anytime) and have 10.02% APY compare to 8% on crypto.com (10% for 1 month, 12% for 3 months)
I've combined both services for security reasons.
View or trade
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I find this educating so thanks for sharing your experience!
!BEER
I don't know what is a “beer” but thank you. Another thing to learn here 🤣😱 Toooooo many 😂
Well, if we count all the secondary layer tokens, they certainly be too many. The beer is one of the more popular...tokens for fun. Still worth something. You can buy a real beer in Europe at the cost of about 10 (or less, depending on the country, still) of the virtual ones.
Enjoy your exploration phase ;) I'll try not to spoil too much.
Cheers 🍺🍺
I will definitely stack more and more hive and go for taking the benefits of curation reward. I am looking forward to Hive value going above $5 in the near future. Lets see what happens.
above 5 and around 10 would be nice :)
I am already out of my liquid money. As a newbie (compared to you :))I like to dabble into everything and anything. I am beginning to realize and impressed by the fact that we don't even need to go outside of the Hive ecosystem to dabble into all these trendy sides of crypto. We have games, nfts, swaps, defi, blogging and many more. Lately, I am amazed by the new swap dexes coming out specially beeswap. It looks sleek and easy to use. If Hive Ecosystem provides all services that is out there in the market, the coin price will be a secondary issue.
It is good to spread wide to some degree, but I still think a little bit of concentration into what we might think will last is worth it. I haven't looked at beeswap yet, but have heard it might be interesting :)
I agree. What I am saying is to concentrate on Hive as an ecosystem as there are many products where one can diversify. Of course, don't neglect what's happening out there in the broader crypto space. I need to read the @beeswap white paper.
Hold of course. I have never sold any assets of mine in bear market. However, there is a change to sell and then buy from dip if you follow the market well.
As for HIVE, it is a long-term investment for me, does not matter if it falls %50 tomorrow. Also, I think that we can recieve more HIVE from author and curation rewards in bull market.
Sell and buy the dip or, stake and continually buy the dip with smaller amounts? There are more decisions to make now. I think perhaps a hybrid approach for me.
I would prefer stake and buy dip.
Sadly that friend that I was supposed to on board hasn’t replied to my request to teach him about the place three times now. He did tell me he owns some Doge which is good I guess that he’s got something but I was really hopeful I could get him into hive for him to learn, earn and build these things for himself so he’s better positioned. Maybe I’ll create him an account on my own, delegate some HP to it and have it vote on my trail to show him, if he ever joins, this is what you missed! Lol.
I’m looking to get into some more passive things as well. I’m glad that I started to get into Cub a few weeks ago, that was great to learn! My first foray into DeFi for sure. Splinterlands is the gem of it all but will that keep up for 6 more months? Let’s hope so, that’s for sure! Some of the things I’ve been enjoying outside of this all is one of the major exchanges offering ROI if you just leave bitcoin and other crypto in their wallets. I think I’ve mentioned it before but I’m earning more money on that for not that much bitcoin, than in a savings account in fiat lol. Can’t figure that one out!
Most people are like this. They want the gains, but can't even bring themselves to learn the basics.
I got a friend of mine to join about 4 years ago. They never did anything here. Yesterday, at the pump he asked "how much did that make you?" - about a year's salary... but I am not selling. He also had the opportunity to buy the march 2020 dip, but chose not to. He does own some now... he bought around 50K. :D
I hope so!
And they have been screwing savers for decades and decades...
Your friend bought 50k of crypto or hive? Lol that's crazy!
I'm disappointed that my friend won't get back to me, I haven't on boarded anyone here except Swayzilla and he's doing well but everyone else ignores me. Can lead a horse to water but can't make it drink, I think the old adage goes.
Oops - badly worded. He bought BTC at 50K :D He could have had it at 3500.
This is the case. When I was talking to this guy originally, it was not long after the high on Steem, and my account was worth about 70K. We are no where near that high now and it is worth 3x that :)
The opportunities for passive income these days are just staggering. I never would have guessed I would have so many options available to me. Like you said, it used to just be hodl or sell and I am still working on moving out of that mindset. It is a slow process. I got so used to doing pretty much nothing with my investments outside of Hive during the crypto winter. I have those bad habits I need to break.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Me too. It is so easy to fall back into the "price mentality" but that is not the future.
The bear market situation is one that is often difficult to completely fathom because it involves different people making emotional decisons. Most people never plan for the bear, they're the ones who quit their jobs during the bull and never had a solid plan.
As for me, I take profits during the bull, put them in stable then build during the bear. The bear is my time to build what I would like to enjoy when it's the bull
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Yes. So we have to factor in what a couple of major groups will do, including the whales. Are they going to sell?
Many wait til the return of the bull. They prefer to buy high :)
Unless i'm moving crypto assets from one Project to another, this is when I can only buy high. But if its straight up fiat, then I will wait for when the prices are obtainable. I guess not a lot of people have that luxury of that time, commitment and effort.
I plan to have 500 HP by the end of 2021 and most of it will be delegated for a return.
delegation can get you a return, but it might not earn you social capital :)
So, what are your plans?
To stake some more.
With either bull or bear I would like to reach 5000 HP next year. That seems like a crazy goal but I am more than a half way there already...
Yep.
I think it is worth building up a presence on Hive, as there is more to it than just the value of the stake, as I think there is also a lot of stability in the future of it. It isn't under constant threat of "buy or sell" mentality.
Great goal, you can get there man!
thank you.
The bulls are coming...December to remember? what do you think?
I am bullish on it. also for the end of Q1
I would love a crystal ball about right now. Hive had that pump/non pump up to $1.30 a very slight drop to $1.00, and tried to struggle o go below $1.00. It still may but it is looking like one dollar may be the floor for awhile as .70's were for a time and the .80's. the .90's just never had a stabilization, so not sure it will go back there.
All I know is by building over the last 4 + years and powering up, I actually now have 60 Hive to play with in my Hive wallet, and 100 Swap.hive in my H-E wallet to play. I feel like I am Hive rich...I have never had that much liquid at one time. 10,000 HP goal will be met at years end, not a doubt it.
HIVE is looking pretty good at the moment. THough, the whole field is too. It is all down slightly, but not "that down" that the up is affected.
you are getting close to the 10K!
really good point. I have thought about this as well, and even argued that we could see the "end" of bear and bull markets in crypto. I think most would be happier with a more stable environment. I will definitely sell at least 1/3 of my holdings. LP pools seem like a good idea or HBD...
I think it won't be the "end" yet, but the volatility will decline quite drastically over the next decade.
I think I became an example of this seeking of alternatives at the slightest obstacle...I did something just today. I had some liquid stuff ready to be sent to an exchange at the moment of what I perceive as a high peak...but wallet maintenance prevented me from doing this when I wanted to and where I wanted to initially. So I just switched options, going for DEC as my "stable" token of choice. Sent in-game, it helps me generate some more SPS while the airdrops are lasting, so it's a daily yield of some sort. And it's still liquid enough. Its price dropped further down today but it's still good for buying in-game assets should I decide to forget about the monetary value of it and go further down the rabbit hole as well. It will still be emotionally justified. It's technically not a loss if it generates some visible return while waiting for another moment of glory.
I have some for this too. I pool it with HIVE for a little more return.
I am hoping for it to drop a bit more too, as I have a buy in for it :)
Start accumulating some of the good coins, also continue investing in stable coins and earn some interest.
I have a couple good coins... I hope :)
Because this is such an awesome post, here is a BBH Tip for you.
. Keep up the fantastic work